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KEY CONTACTS

Lucio Vinhas de Souza
Managing Director 
Sovereign Chief Economist
Lucio.Vinhasdesouza
@moodys.com

Elena Duggar
Group Credit Officer
Sovereign Risk
Credit Policy Group
Elena.Duggar@moodys.com

Colin Ellis
Senior Vice President
Sovereign Risk
Colin.Ellis@moodys.com

Aurelien Mali
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Sovereign Risk
Aurelien.Mali@moodys.com

Bart Oosterveld
Managing Director
Sovereign Risk
Bart.Oosterveld@moodys.com

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Global Macro-Economic & Financial Risk Analysis


Moody's global macro-economic and financial risk analysis helps credit professionals to "put the pieces together" in order to develop a robust risk management/investment strategy by analyzing early trends, and by uncovering the linkages between the worlds of politics, economics and finance and their impact on credit. Through the combination of macro-economic, financial and policy perspectives, which aims to provide valuable credit angles, our analysis scrutinizes the key developments affecting global financial stability to help investors better anticipate future risks.
 

Highlights

  • 12 Feb 2013
    • Global Macro Outlook 2013-14: Downside risks have diminished
      Global economic prospects have stabilized in recent months. Resolution of the fiscal cliff has averted a significant disruption to the US economy and the signs are that key emerging markets will avoid an overly sharp slowdown in growth. Diminishing risk include a potential recession in the euro area, weak growth in the major emerging markets and an escalation of geopolitical tensions… Press Release l Full Report
  • 12 Nov 2012
    • Global Macro-Risk Outlook updated for slower growth
      The continued weak pace of recovery from the recent financial crisis and global downturn has prompted us to lower our growth forecasts for the G-20 economies. Overall, we expect real GDP growth in the G-20 advanced economies of around 1.3% in 2012, followed by 1.6% in 2013 (around 0.5 percentage points weaker than our August forecast) and 2.0% in 2014.… Full Report
  • 30 Aug 2012
    • Euro area debt crisis continues to pose the greatest risk to global growth
      Our latest global macro-risk outlook revised downwards growth forecasts for the emerging G-20 economies, and we expect only a modest recovery in the G-20 economies overall. We maintain our forecast for relatively robust US growth, but expect the euro area will experience a mild recession in 2012. Elevated downside risks would pose a serious threat to the global recovery...Press Release | Full Report

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