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Bart Oosterveld
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Steven Hess
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Elena Duggar
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Mark LaMonte
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Yaron Ernst
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Gail Sussman
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@moodys.com
 
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Mark Gray
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Dan Gates
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William Coley
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US Fiscal Outlook

The Aaa rating of the US government carries a negative outlook, which was assigned primarily due to the rapid increase in federal government debt during the past five years and the uncertain debt trajectory in the medium term. The rating outlook will likely be either moved back to stable or the rating downgraded during the course of 2013, depending on the outcome of budget negotiations at the federal level and a further assessment of the resulting medium-term debt trajectory. This page provides a centralized source for Moody’s research related to credits with both direct and indirect linkages to the U.S. fiscal outlook.

Highlights

  • 15 Apr 2013
    • U.S. credit trend still unclear after Obama budget proposal
      The Obama administration budget proposal is one more step in negotiations over the finances of the U.S. government (Aaa negative) following the adoption of budgets by the House of Representatives and Senate. None of these budgets are likely to be accepted as proposed. All three budgets project reductions in the ratio of federal debt to GDP, but each offers significant differences in how to achieve such reductions, which indicates that a final resolution is still very uncertain... Full Report
  • 18 Mar 2013
    • Dueling budgets mean continuing uncertainty for US government credit
      In the opening moves in budget negotiations, both House and Senate budget committees recently introduced budget resolutions. The credit implications remain uncertain as the outcome of these negotiations is unclear. Adoption of either budget as proposed-highly unlikely-would result in lower budget deficits than the Congressional Budget Office currently projects... Full Report​​
  • 14 Feb 2013
    • Upcoming fiscal negotiations to shape US government debt trajectory
      Our report outlines the events between now and May likely to affect the federal budget and shape the trajectory of the government’s fiscal deficits and debt. It is still too early to tell when a clearer picture will emerge, but we will reassess the rating (Aaa, negative outlook) during the course of this year. As we’ve previously stated, an agreement that arrests and ultimately reverses the debt trajectory would support a return to a stable outlook… Full Report

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