• On 21 May 2013, Moody’s announced rating actions on MBIA Insurance Corp., National Public Finance Guarantee Corp., MBIA Inc. and other related entities. Because of the large number of credits across several asset classes affected by these rating actions, including Moody's-rated securities that are guaranteed or "wrapped" by these companies, ratings appearing on this website may not yet reflect current information. For current information on affected credits, please visit www.moodys.com/fig.
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Announcement:

Moody's Disclosures on Credit Rating of Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.

Global Credit Research - 15 May 2012

New York, May 15, 2012 -- The following release represents Moody's Investors Service's summary credit opinion on Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. and includes certain regulatory disclosures regarding its ratings. This release does not constitute any change in Moody's ratings or rating rationale for Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp and its affiliates.

Moody's current ratings on Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. and its affiliates are:

Insurance Financial Strength ratings of Aa3, on review for downgrade

Assured Guaranty (Europe) Ltd.

Insurance Financial Strength ratings of Aa3, on review for downgrade

Assured Guaranty Ltd (Bermuda)

Long Term Issuer Rating (foreign currency) A3, on review for downgrade

Senior Unsecured Shelf (foreign currency) (P)A3, on review for downgrade

Subordinate Shelf (foreign currency) (P)Baa1, on review for downgrade

Preferred Shelf (foreign currency) (P)Baa2, on review for downgrade

Assured Guaranty Municipal Holdings Inc.

Senior Unsecured (domestic currency) A3, on review for downgrade

Junior Subordinate (domestic currency) Baa1 (hyb)

Senior Unsecured Shelf (domestic currency) (P)A3, on review for downgrade

Subordinate Shelf (domestic currency) (P)Baa1, on review for downgrade

Preferred Shelf (domestic currency) (P)Baa2, on review for downgrade

Preferred shelf -- PS2 (domestic currency) (P)Baa2, on review for downgrade

RATING RATIONALE

The Aa3 insurance financial strength (IFS) rating of Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. (AGM, formerly Financial Security Assurance Inc.) reflects its strong capital profile, conservative underwriting of US municipal structured and infrastructure finance risks and leading market position, being the main writer in the only group (collectively `Assured Guaranty') generating meaningful new business volume. These strengths are tempered by the firm's high operational leverage inherent in the business of a financial guarantor which makes the credit profile rather sensitive to the performance of individual insured sectors and even, in some cases, individual transactions. This has been particularly evident in the increase in proportion of non-investment grade risks in its insured portfolio - predominantly from legacy mortgage related risks.

Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. is a direct writer of financial guaranty insurance on the US municipal credits. AGM is one of three main operating companies of Assured Guaranty Ltd. ((`Assured', A3 issuer rating) and a wholly owned subsidiary of Financial Security Assurance Holdings Ltd. (senior unsecured debt at A3). The firm was acquired by Assured on July 1, 2009, with Dexia, AGM's former owner retaining the ownership and risks of the Financial Products business. Affiliated companies include Assured Guaranty Corp. (AGC, IFS rating at Aa3), which writes insurance on public finance and structured finance transactions, and Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. (AG Re, IFS rating at A1), a Bermuda domiciled reinsurer. The credit profiles of the operating companies are differentiated but intertwined due to the group's flexibility in managing capital among these entities, as demonstrated by AGM's capital support of AGC through a surplus notes investment. Moody's rates AG Re one notch below AGM and AGC to reflect its limited independent franchise and its role as internal reinsurer, optimizing the risk profile of its affiliated primary insurance writers.

All the Assured Guaranty's ratings are under review for possible downgrade, reflecting Moody's opinion that the group's business and financial profiles may have meaningfully deteriorated due to narrower business opportunities and exposure to sectors adversely affected by the financial crisis and current economic stress. The financial guaranty niche in which Assured Guaranty operates remains under pressure with a municipal market penetration at 5.2% in 2011, down from 8.6% in 2009 (proforma FSA acquisition). The group's elevated below investment grade exposure, across a range of sectors including RMBS, trust preferred, and municipal risks, which by Assured's estimate stood at about 4.3 times qualified statutory capital and loss reserves and 2.2 times total reported claims paying resources, could also leave the firm particularly exposed to further deterioration.

Credit Strengths

Only active provider of financial guaranty insurance

High quality, well diversified insurance portfolio with nominal liquidity needs

Highly effective loss mitigation strategies have resulted in material reduction in claims realized

Strong embedded earnings

Credit Challenges

Demand for financial guaranty insurance has declined

Confidence sensitive business magnifies headline risks

Large RMBS portfolio makes the insurer vulnerable to weakness in the housing sector

Some large single risk concentrations

Material deterioration in certain municipal exposures such as Jefferson County and Harrisburg

Rating Outlook

The rating is on review for possible downgrade due to concerns about narrower business opportunities and substantial exposure to sectors affected by the current economic stress. As part of the review Moody's will evaluate

The evolving dynamics of the US municipal, infrastructure and structured finance debt markets and the role played by bond insurance generally and Assured Guaranty specifically.

The risks embedded in Assured Guaranty's insured portfolio with a particular focus on downside risk sensitivities given its large sector and single risk concentrations to sectors and issuers adversely impacted by the financial crisis and the weak economic environment, including RMBS, trust preferred and select municipal exposures.

The firm's ongoing risk mitigation efforts, including loan put-backs and servicing transfers, will be considered in this context.

How Assured Guaranty is addressing the challenges stemming from managing the credit and headline risks of its legacy portfolio, given the confidence sensitive nature of the financial guaranty insurance business.

What Could Change the Rating - Up

As the rating is on review for possible downgrade, it is unlikely there would be an upgrade in the near term.

What Could Change the Rating - Down

Substantial narrowing of the firm's business opportunities

Greater acceptance of alternatives to bond insurance (including uninsured origination)

Material exposure, relative to capital, to sectors adversely affected by the financial crisis and current economic stress

Meaningful continued exposure to headline risks and earnings volatility from portfolio's problem credits and sectors.

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Moody's Rating Methodology for the Financial Guaranty Insurance Industry published in September 2006. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

The Global Scale Credit Ratings on this press release that are issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU are endorsed by Moody's Investors Service Ltd., One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E 14 5FA, UK, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that has issued a particular Credit Rating is available on www.moodys.com.

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

Information sources used to prepare each of the ratings are the following: parties involved in the ratings, public information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information.

Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entities, obligations or credits satisfactory for the purposes of issuing these ratings.

Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning the ratings is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.

Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for general disclosure on potential conflicts of interests.

Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for information on (A) MCO's major shareholders (above 5%) and for (B) further information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities as well as (C) the names of entities that hold ratings from MIS that have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%. A member of the board of directors of this rated entity may also be a member of the board of directors of a shareholder of Moody's Corporation; however, Moody's has not independently verified this matter.

Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.

Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history. The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Ranjini Venkatesan
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Stanislas F Rouyer
Senior Vice President
Financial Institutions Group
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Moody's Disclosures on Credit Rating of Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
No Related Data.

 

© 2013 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.

 


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