Moody's: Euro Area Sovereigns Remain Under Pressure In Absence of Decisive Initiatives
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Announcement:

Moody's: Euro Area Sovereigns Remain Under Pressure In Absence of Decisive Initiatives

Global Credit Research - 12 Dec 2011

London, 12 December 2011 -- In view of the continued absence of decisive policy measures despite the recent euro area summit, Moody's Investors Service is reiterating its intention to revisit the ratings of all EU sovereigns during the first quarter of 2012. As Moody's had stated in November, this is because the absence of measures to stabilise credit markets over the short term means that the euro area, and the wider EU, remain prone to further shocks and the cohesion of the euro area under continued threat.

Last Friday, European policymakers announced additional measures aimed at addressing the formidable challenges facing the euro area. Moody's acknowledges that the announcement underlines the continued desire among euro area politicians to move towards centralised fiscal coordination and mutualisation of resources and risks. However, Moody's believes that the announcement offers few new measures and points out that many are similar to previously announced ones. (Measures to strengthen oversight of excessive deficits were first announced in H1 2011, while the intention to strengthen national budgetary frameworks and improve coordination and cooperation was announced in October, as was the aim of leveraging the EFSF.)

Overall, Moody's believes that the announced measures reflect the continuing tension between euro area leaders' recognition of the need to increase support for fiscally weaker countries and the significant opposition within stronger countries to doing so. Amid growing pressures on euro area authorities to act quickly to restore credit market confidence, the constraints they face are also rising. The longer this remains the case, the greater the risk of adverse economic conditions that would add to the already sizeable challenges facing the authorities' coordination and debt-reduction efforts.

The announced measures therefore do not change Moody's previously expressed view that the crisis is in a critical and volatile stage, with sovereign and bank debt markets prone to acute dislocation which policymakers will find increasingly hard to contain. While Moody's central scenario remains that the euro area will be preserved without further widespread defaults, the shocks that are likely to materialise even under this 'positive' scenario carry negative rating implications in the coming months. Moreover, the longer the incremental approach to policy persists, the greater the likelihood of more severe scenarios, including those involving multiple defaults by euro area countries and those additionally involving exits from the euro area.

The credit implications of these and further measures likely to be announced in coming weeks require careful consideration against the backdrop of decelerating regional economic activity, fragile banking systems, partly dysfunctional credit markets, and the varying degree of success of country-specific measures aimed at structural change and fiscal consolidation. But in the absence of policy initiatives in the near future that stabilise credit market conditions effectively, Moody's believes that the system remains prone to further shocks, which would likely lead to selective rating changes. As a result, Moody's intention remains to revisit sovereign ratings of euro area and EU countries during the first quarter of 2012.

Moody's report, entitled "Pressure Remains On Euro Area Sovereigns In Absence of Decisive Initiatives", is available on www.moodys.com

NOTE TO JOURNALISTS ONLY: For more information, please call one of our global press information hotlines: London +44-20-7772-5456, New York +1-212-553-0376, Tokyo +813-5408-4110, Hong Kong +852-3758-1350, Sydney +61-2-9270-8141, Mexico City 001-888-779-5833, São Paulo 0800-891-2518, or Buenos Aires 0800-666-3506. You can also email us at mediarelations@moodys.com or visit our web site at www.moodys.com.

Alastair Wilson
Managing Director
Chief Credit Officer, EMEA
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Bart Oosterveld
MD - Sovereign Risk
Sovereign Risk
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Moody's: Euro Area Sovereigns Remain Under Pressure In Absence of Decisive Initiatives
No Related Data.

© 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.


CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE, INC. ("MIS") AND ITS AFFILIATES ARE MOODY'S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES, AND CREDIT RATINGS AND RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS PUBLISHED BY MOODY'S ("MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS") MAY INCLUDE MOODY'S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES. MOODY'S DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL, FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO: LIQUIDITY RISK, MARKET VALUE RISK, OR PRICE VOLATILITY. CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY'S OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT. CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE, SELL, OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES. NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR. MOODY'S ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE, HOLDING, OR SALE.


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Notwithstanding the foregoing, credit ratings assigned on and after October 1, 2010 by Moody's Japan K.K. (“MJKK”) are MJKK's current opinions of the relative future credit risk of entities, credit commitments, or debt or debt-like securities. In such a case, “MIS” in the foregoing statements shall be deemed to be replaced with “MJKK”. MJKK is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody's Group Japan G.K., which is wholly owned by Moody’s Overseas Holdings Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO.


This credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer, not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors. It would be dangerous for retail investors to make any investment decision based on this credit rating. If in doubt you should contact your financial or other professional adviser.

© 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their affiliates and licensors. All rights reserved.
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