Moody's: Europäische Unternehmen im High-Yield-Segment vermutlich auch 2012 von negativen Ratingaktionen betroffen
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Moody's: Europäische Unternehmen im High-Yield-Segment vermutlich auch 2012 von negativen Ratingaktionen betroffen

Global Credit Research - 10 Jan 2012

London, 10 January 2012 -- Die im High-Yield-Segment angesiedelten Unternehmen des Nichtfinanzsektors dürften 2012 im gesamten EMEA-Raum von einer deutlichen Zunahme negativer Ratingaktionen betroffen sein. Hintergrund ist der anhaltend schwache makroökonomische Trend in Europa. Zu dieser Einschätzung gelangt die internationale Ratingagentur Moody's Investors Service in einem heute unter dem Titel EMEA High-Yield Non-Financial Corporates: 2011/12 Review and Outlook" veröffentlichten Special Comment. Trotz rückläufiger Fundamentaldaten bei der Unternehmensbonität rechnet Moody's in seinem Basisszenario aber nicht mit einem dramatischen Anstieg der Ausfallrate für 2012.

Moody's' Erwartungen hinsichtlich der Ausfallrate sind Ausdruck der verbesserten Liquiditäts- und Tilgungsprofile der gerateten Unternehmen aufgrund der bereits erfolgten Refinanzierungsaktivitäten. Am Markt für ungeratete Hochzinsdarlehen dürfte die Ausfallrate nach Einschätzung von Moody's jedoch rascher ansteigen.

Für 2012 gehen wir zwar nicht davon aus, dass die Ausfallrate deutlich höher als 2011 liegen wird. Parallel zu den rückläufigen Fundamentaldaten und einer potenziellen Verschlechterung der gegenwärtig soliden Liquiditätsprofile der Unternehmen rechnen wir allerdings mit weiteren negativen Ratingaktionen", so Tanya Savkin, Vice President - Senior Analyst in der Corporate Finance Group bei Moody's und Autorin des Berichts. Dies hat sich bereits an dem höheren Verhältnis von Herab- zu Heraufstufungen im 4. Quartal 2011 gezeigt", wie sie hinzufügt.

Nach Einschätzung von Moody's werden die Banken bei der Kreditvergabe zunehmend selektiver vorgehen. In Verbindung mit den steigenden Reinvestitionshindernissen bei CLOs werden die im High-Yield-Segment angesiedelten Unternehmen, einschließlich LBOs, weiter versuchen, sich zur Refinanzierung ihrer Bankverbindlichkeiten an den Fremdkapitalmärkten zu engagieren.

2012 wird nach Einschätzung von Moody's ein Käufermarkt". Angesichts der geringeren Finanzierungsoptionen, die den Unternehmen zur Verfügung stehen, dürften Neuemissionen im High-Yield-Segment eher anlegerfreundliche Konditionen aufweisen, wie z. B. attraktivere Kurse und konservative Strukturen.

Den größten Refinanzierungsbedarf werden 2012 die Ba-gerateten Emittenten haben. Sie dürften sich ihren Zugang zu den Kapitalmärkten in der Regel zwar bewahren. Das hat allerdings seinen Preis. Der Marktzugang ist eventuell nur zu bestimmten Zeitfenstern" möglich, wobei niedriger eingestufte Unternehmen größere Schwierigkeiten haben werden als im ersten Halbjahr 2011. Sollte die europäische Staatsschuldenkrise keiner raschen und nachhaltigen Lösung zugeführt werden, rechnet Moody's damit, dass das Emissionsvolumen im europäischen High-Yield-Segment hinter den jüngsten Rekordwerten zurückbleiben wird.

Der Ausblick für den europäischen High-Yield-Markt 2012 gibt die Position wieder, die auch in Moody's' jüngster Bestandsaufnahme der globalen makroökonomischen Risiken (Global Macro-Risk Outlook 2011-12: Material Slowdown in Growth") von November 2011 zum Ausdruck kommt. Wesentliche Abweichungen hiervon, wie etwa infolge eines Negativereignisses (Credit Event") bei einer Staatsregierung oder infolge weiterer Ölpreis-Schocks, könnten zu gänzlich anderen Ergebnissen führen, einschließlich einer deutlich höheren Ausfallrate.

Der europäische High-Yield-Markt entwickelte sich im ersten und im zweiten Halbjahr 2011 sehr unterschiedlich. In der ersten Jahreshälfte 2011 war eine steigende Risikobereitschaft der High-Yield-Investoren im EMEA-Raum zu verzeichnen, wobei die überaus rege Emissionstätigkeit mit einem Gesamtvolumen von rund 70 Mrd. US-Dollar das Rekordniveau von 2010 mit Neuemissionen im Wert von 65 Mrd. US-Dollar sogar noch übertraf.

In der zweiten Jahreshälfte überwogen an den Kapitalmärkten dann allerdings die Sorgen über die Staaten Europas, und der Primärmarkt kam praktisch vollständig zum Erliegen.

Die Veröffentlichung mit dem Titel EMEA High-Yield Non-Financial Corporates: 2011/12 Review and Outlook" findet sich auf der Moody's-Website im Internet unter www.moodys.com.

HINWEIS FÜR JOURNALISTEN: Für weitere Auskünfte wenden Sie sich bitte telefonisch an eine unserer Presse-Hotlines in London, Tel. +44 20 7772-5456; New York, Tel. +1 212 553-0376; Tokio, Tel. +813 5408-4110; Hongkong, Tel. +852 3758-1350; Sydney, Tel. +61 2 9270-8141; Mexiko-Stadt, Tel. +1 888 779-5833; São Paulo, Tel. +1 0800 891-2518; oder Buenos Aires, Tel. +1 0800 666-3506. Alternativ können Sie uns auch gerne eine E-Mail an mediarelations@moodys.com schicken oder uns im Internet unter www.moodys.com besuchen.

Tanya Savkin
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Chetan Modi
Senior Vice President
Corporate Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Moody's: Europäische Unternehmen im High-Yield-Segment vermutlich auch 2012 von negativen Ratingaktionen betroffen
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