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Moody's: Global spec-grade corporate default rate edges lower to 2.8% in July

Global Credit Research - 07 Aug 2012

New York, August 07, 2012 -- Moody's trailing 12 month global speculative-grade default rate came in at 2.8% in July, down from a revised rate of 2.9% in June, but up from the 1.9% rate it was in July a year ago, says Moody's Investors Service in its monthly default report.

A total of 40 Moody's rated corporate debt issuers have defaulted so far this year, three in July. Through July last year, 16 issuers had defaulted.

Moody's has revised the June rate upward to 2.9% from 2.7% because of the backfill of five defaults.

Moody's "July Default Report" is now available, as are other Moody's other default research reports, in the Ratings Analytics section of Moodys.com.

"Corporate default rates remain low and steady," notes Albert Metz, Managing Director of Moody's Credit Policy Research. "Of course there remain risks to the upside, that default counts will accelerate. But to date we are not seeing evidence of that."

In the US, the speculative-grade default rate rose to 3.3% in July from 3.2% (revised) in June. A year ago, the US default rate stood at 2.3%.

In Europe, the default rate among speculative-grade issuers closed at 2.7% in July, down from June's revised rate of 2.8%. Moody's explains that the count of defaults did not decrease in July. Rather, the rate fell because the number of speculative-grade issuers has increased; these make up the denominator of the ratio. The increase reflects both newly rated issuers and the downgrade of some investment-grade issuers into speculative grade about a year ago.

Last year, the European default rate was 1.1% in July.

Based on its forecasting model, Moody's expects the global speculative-grade default rate to remain low and end the year at 3.1%, before it slips to 2.9% by July 2013. Moody's expects the US default rate to rise modestly to 3.6% by the end of the year, and the European default rate to increase to 2.9%.

Looking at specific industries, Moody's anticipates default rates being highest in the coming year in the Media: Advertising, Printing & Publishing sector in the US and the Hotel, Gaming, & Leisure sector in Europe.

By dollar volume, the global speculative-grade bond default rate finished at 2.0% in July, unchanged from June's revised level. Last year, the global dollar-weighted default rate was lower at 1.2%.

In the US, the dollar-weighted speculative-grade bond default rate held steady at 1.6% from June to July. The comparable rate was 1.3% a year ago.

In Europe, the dollar-weighted speculative-grade bond default rate dropped to 3.3% in July from 3.7% (revised) in June. At this time last year, the European rate stood at 0.5%.

Moody's distressed index came in at 18.3% in July, down from 19.3% in June. A year ago, the index was lower at 8.9%.

The trailing 12 month US leveraged loan default rate ended July at 2.2%, unchanged from the revised rate for June. A year ago, the loan default rate was at 1.4%. No Moody's-rated loans defaulted in July.

Moody's research subscribers can access this report at http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_144637.

***

NOTE TO JOURNALISTS ONLY: For more information, please call one of our global press information hotlines: New York +1-212-553-0376, London +44-20-7772-5456, Tokyo +813-5408-4110, Hong Kong +852-3758-1350, Sydney +61-2-9270-8141, Mexico City 001-888-779-5833, São Paulo 0800-891-2518, or Buenos Aires 0800-666-3506. You can also email us at mediarelations@moodys.com or visit our web site at www.moodys.com.

Albert Metz
MD - Credit Policy Research
Credit Policy
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Sharon Ou
Vice President
Credit Policy
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Moody's: Global spec-grade corporate default rate edges lower to 2.8% in July
No Related Data.

 

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