New York, August 07, 2012 -- Moody's trailing 12 month global speculative-grade default
rate came in at 2.8% in July, down from a revised
rate of 2.9% in June, but up from the 1.9%
rate it was in July a year ago, says Moody's Investors Service
in its monthly default report.
A total of 40 Moody's rated corporate debt issuers have defaulted
so far this year, three in July. Through July last year,
16 issuers had defaulted.
Moody's has revised the June rate upward to 2.9% from
2.7% because of the backfill of five defaults.
Moody's "July Default Report" is now available,
as are other Moody's other default research reports, in the
Ratings Analytics section of Moodys.com.
"Corporate default rates remain low and steady," notes
Albert Metz, Managing Director of Moody's Credit Policy Research.
"Of course there remain risks to the upside, that default
counts will accelerate. But to date we are not seeing evidence
of that."
In the US, the speculative-grade default rate rose to 3.3%
in July from 3.2% (revised) in June. A year ago,
the US default rate stood at 2.3%.
In Europe, the default rate among speculative-grade issuers
closed at 2.7% in July, down from June's revised
rate of 2.8%. Moody's explains that the count
of defaults did not decrease in July. Rather, the rate fell
because the number of speculative-grade issuers has increased;
these make up the denominator of the ratio. The increase reflects
both newly rated issuers and the downgrade of some investment-grade
issuers into speculative grade about a year ago.
Last year, the European default rate was 1.1% in July.
Based on its forecasting model, Moody's expects the global
speculative-grade default rate to remain low and end the year at
3.1%, before it slips to 2.9% by July
2013. Moody's expects the US default rate to rise modestly
to 3.6% by the end of the year, and the European default
rate to increase to 2.9%.
Looking at specific industries, Moody's anticipates default
rates being highest in the coming year in the Media: Advertising,
Printing & Publishing sector in the US and the Hotel, Gaming,
& Leisure sector in Europe.
By dollar volume, the global speculative-grade bond default
rate finished at 2.0% in July, unchanged from June's
revised level. Last year, the global dollar-weighted
default rate was lower at 1.2%.
In the US, the dollar-weighted speculative-grade bond
default rate held steady at 1.6% from June to July.
The comparable rate was 1.3% a year ago.
In Europe, the dollar-weighted speculative-grade bond
default rate dropped to 3.3% in July from 3.7%
(revised) in June. At this time last year, the European rate
stood at 0.5%.
Moody's distressed index came in at 18.3% in July,
down from 19.3% in June. A year ago, the index
was lower at 8.9%.
The trailing 12 month US leveraged loan default rate ended July at 2.2%,
unchanged from the revised rate for June. A year ago, the
loan default rate was at 1.4%. No Moody's-rated
loans defaulted in July.
Moody's research subscribers can access this report at http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_144637.
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Credit Policy
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Moody's: Global spec-grade corporate default rate edges lower to 2.8% in July