Moody's: Perspectives de notation négatives en 2012 pour les entreprises de la zone EMEA en raison d'une conjoncture économique difficile
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Moody's: Perspectives de notation négatives en 2012 pour les entreprises de la zone EMEA en raison d'une conjoncture économique difficile

Global Credit Research - 12 Jan 2012

Paris, January 12, 2012 -- L'année 2012 s'annonce difficile pour les entreprises non financières de la zone EMEA (Europe, Moyen-Orient, Afrique), indique Moody's Investors Service dans une étude publiée ce jour. L'agence justifie son pronostic en mettant essentiellement en avant la crise de la dette en Europe, la fragilité du contexte macroéconomique, le repli de la confiance des consommateurs et la dégradation des conditions de financement.

« Nous attendons cette année des abaissements de notation nettement supérieurs aux relèvements, tant pour les entreprises issues de la catégorie investissement (Investment-grade) que spéculative (Speculative-grade) » indique Jean-Michel Carayon, Senior VP au sein du groupe Credit Policy qui co-signe cette étude. « Cette tendance s'inscrit dans la continuité de la dégradation observée fin 2011 : au cours des trois premiers trimestres, le taux des relèvements sur abaissements de notation était inférieur à 2:1 mais les abaissements ont, au quatrième trimestre, été neuf fois supérieurs aux relèvements ».

Les turbulences sur les marchés financiers, les efforts d'assainissement des finances publiques et le désendettement du secteur bancaire devraient, selon Moody's, continuer à peser sur la croissance en 2012. Les prévisions de l'agence de notation, notamment pour la zone euro, s'accompagnent d'un degré élevé d'incertitude avec un risque de baisse significatif qui serait de nature à affecter la qualité de crédit des entreprises.

Moody's souligne que les émetteurs entrant dans la catégorie spéculative affichent d'importants besoins de refinancement et leur profil de liquidité, actuellement solide, ne leur assurera qu'une flexibilité à court terme. Un accès durablement restreint aux marchés pourrait tester la capacité de nombreuses entreprises notées en catégorie spéculative à conserver un profil de liquidité suffisant et dès lors, remettre en question leur notation.

Au regard des scénarios macroéconomiques actuels, Moody's anticipe en 2012 une hausse modérée du taux de défaut dans la catégorie spéculative par rapport au niveau faible - moins de 3% - enregistré en 2011. Dans l'hypothèse de scénarios macroéconomiques plus pessimistes et de l'entrée en récession de la zone euro, le taux de défaut pourrait, tout en se limitant à un chiffre, suffisamment augmenter pour s'établir dans le haut de la fourchette.

Les émetteurs publics (« GRI ») et les entreprises dont les activités sont géographiquement concentrées dans des pays économiquement peu performants sont plus exposés à des sources de tension négatives dans une conjoncture économique difficile. Selon Moody's, les mesures d'austérité seront par ailleurs plus directement préjudiciables aux sociétés dont le chiffre d'affaires est fortement dépendant des dépenses publiques.

Au seuil de l'année 2012, les perspectives sectorielles de Moody's (Industry Sector Outlooks) - en d'autres termes, les opinions de l'agence sur les conditions opérationnelles par secteur qui sont reflétées dans ses notations d'entreprise - étaient, pour l'essentiel, stables. Néanmoins, le risque que certaines perspectives deviennent négatives augmente. Les secteurs considérés comme cycliques seront d'autant plus exposés en cas de nouvelle dégradation du climat macroéconomique. Parmi ces secteurs, les perspectives de Moody's sur l'industrie sidérurgique européenne et l'industrie mondiale du transport maritime sont désormais négatives. La perspective pour le secteur européen des matériaux de construction demeure stable mais avec des pressions négatives, la reprise dans ce secteur après la crise financière de 2008 n'ayant pas été aussi franche qu'attendu. S'agissant des secteurs dont l'activité est déterminée par la consommation, la perspective de Moody's pour les opérateurs européens de télécommunications est devenue négative fin 2011, décision essentiellement motivée par le repli de la confiance des consommateurs et sa possible incidence en termes de chiffre d'affaires.

Moody's fait remarquer que pour les entreprises géographiquement diversifiées, les marchés émergents permettent dans une certaine mesure de relativiser la faiblesse de la demande dans la zone euro. Pourtant, ces marchés pourraient être de plus en plus touchés par la crise de la dette et un ralentissement économique en Europe.

Intitulée « Corporates in EMEA: 2012 Outlook », cette étude est disponible sur www.moodys.com.

NOTE AUX JOURNALISTES : Pour plus de précisions, veuillez contacter l'un de nos services presse suivants : Londres +44-20-7772-5456, New York +1-212-553-0376, Tokyo +813-5408-4110, Hong Kong +852-3758-1350, Sydney +61-2-9270-8141, Mexico 001-888-779-5833, São Paulo 0800-891-2518 ou Buenos Aires 0800-666-3506. Vous pouvez également nous contacter par courrier électronique à mediarelations@moodys.com ou vous rendre sur notre site internet www.moodys.com.

Jean-Michel Carayon
Senior Vice President
Credit Policy Group
Moody's France SAS
96 Boulevard Haussmann
Paris 75008
France
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Myriam Durand
MD - EMEA Corporate Finance
Corporate Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
Moody's France SAS
96 Boulevard Haussmann
Paris 75008
France
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Moody's: Perspectives de notation négatives en 2012 pour les entreprises de la zone EMEA en raison d'une conjoncture économique difficile
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© 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.


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