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Global Credit Research - 12 Jan 2012
Paris, January 12, 2012 -- Il 2012 sarà un anno impegnativo per le società non-finanziarie,
in Europa, Medio Oriente e Africa (EMEA), sostiene Moody's
Investors Service in un rapporto pubblicato oggi. Gli elementi
principali di questa opinione sono la crisi del debito sovrano europeo,
il difficile clima macroeconomico, il calo di fiducia dei consumatori
e una maggiore difficoltà ad accedere al credito.
"Ci aspettiamo che i declassamenti continueranno a superare in modo
sostanziale gli innalzamenti dei rating nel prossimo anno sia per le società
"Investment Grade" sia per quelle "High-Yield",
spiega Jean-Michel Carayon, Senior Vice President nel gruppo
Credit Policy di Moody's e co-autore del rapporto.
"Questo fa seguito al peggioramento registrato alla fine del 2011:
nel 1°-3° trimestre, il rapporto tra i declassamenti
e i miglioramenti dei rating e' stato inferiore a 2:1,
ma nel 4° trimestre 2011 ci sono stati nove declassamenti per ogni
miglioramento."
Moody's si aspetta che la turbolenza dei mercati finanziari,
gli sforzi del risanamento fiscale e la riduzione dell'indebitamento
del settore bancario continueranno a limitare la crescita nel 2012.
Le previsioni dell'agenzia, in particolare per la zona euro,
hanno un elevato livello di incertezza, con considerevoli rischi
di revisione al ribasso, con conseguenti implicazioni negative per
la qualità creditizia delle società industriali.
Moody's osserva che le esigenze di rifinanziamento delle società
"High-Yield" sono rilevanti e la loro attuale solida
liquidità servirà come tampone solo nel breve termine.
Un periodo prolungato di restrizione di accesso al mercato potrebbe essere
problematico per molte società "High-Yield"
per mantenere un'adeguata liquidità e quindi il loro rating.
Sulla base degli attuali scenari macroeconomici, Moody's si
aspetta che il tasso di default del settore "High-Yield"
nel 2012 salirà modestamente dal livello basso (meno del 3%)
registrato nel 2011. Se gli scenari macro più pessimisti
si avvereranno, e la zona euro entrasse in una fase di recessione,
il tasso di default potrebbe salire attorno al 7-9%.
Emittenti legati alla qualità creditizia dei governi (GRIs) e le
imprese con una concentrazione geografica in economie deboli sono esposti
maggiormente a pressioni negative in un ambiente economico che peggiora.
Secondo Moody's, le misure di austerità colpiranno
ancor più direttamente società che dipendono per la maggior
parte delle loro entrate da programmi governativi.
All'inizio del 2012, la maggior parte delle prospettive sui
settori industriali di Moody's (Industry Sector Outlooks -
ISOs) - la valutazione dell'agenzia sull'evoluzione
dei diversi settori che viene incorporata nei rating delle società
industriali -- sono rimasti stabili. Tuttavia, il rischio
che alcune prospettive diventino negative e' in aumento.
I settori ciclici saranno particolarmente esposti in caso di deterioramento
delle tendenze macroeconomiche. Tra le industrie cicliche,
Moody's ha attualmente delle prospettive negative nei settori dell'acciaio
in Europa e del trasporto marittimo a livello mondiale. Le prospettive
per il settore dei materiali da costruzione in Europa rimangono stabili,
ma verso il basso, poiché la ripresa del settore, dopo
la crisi finanziaria globale del 2008-09, non è stata
così vigorosa come prevista. Tra i settori del consumo,
l'ISO per i fornitori di servizi di telecomunicazione europei è
diventato negativo verso la fine dell'anno scorso, in gran
parte dovuto al calo di fiducia dei consumatori e il suo potenziale impatto
sui ricavi.
Moody's osserva che, in qualche misura, per le imprese
geograficamente diversificate, i mercati emergenti rimangono un
fattore attenuante contro la domanda debole nella zona dell'euro.
Tuttavia vi è il rischio che questi mercati siano sempre più
colpiti dalla crisi del debito sovrano in Europa e una recessione economica
in Europa.
Il rapporto di Moody's, dal titolo "Imprese EMEA:
2012 Outlook", è disponibile sul sito www.moodys.com.
NOTA SOLOPER I GIORNALISTI: Per ulteriori informazioni, chiamare
uno dei nostri numeri hotline di informazione stampa globale: Londra
+44-20-7772-5456, New York +1-212-553-0376,
Tokyo +813-5408-4110, Hong Kong +852-3758-1350,
Sydney +61-2-9270-8141, Mexico City 001-888-779-5833,
São Paulo 0800-891-2518, o Buenos Aires 0800-666-3506.
E' anche possibile inviare una e-mail all'indirizzo
mediarelations@moodys.com o visitare il sito web all'indirizzo
www.moodys.com.
Jean-Michel Carayon
Senior Vice President
Credit Policy Group
Moody's France SAS
96 Boulevard Haussmann
Paris 75008
France
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Myriam Durand
MD - EMEA Corporate Finance
Corporate Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Releasing Office:
Moody's France SAS
96 Boulevard Haussmann
Paris 75008
France
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Moody's: Prospettive negative per i rating corporate in EMEA nel 2012 considerato il difficile contesto economico
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