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Moody's: Ridotte le aspettative sulle vendite di automobili in Europa per il 2012 a causa del perdurare della difficile situazione economica

Global Credit Research - 26 Jan 2012

Frankfurt am Main, January 26, 2012 -- Per il 2012 si prevede un calo del 6,2% della domanda di automobili in Europa occidentale rispetto al 2011, dovuto all'indebolimento dei fondamentali economici in tale area economica. Questo è quanto si legge nel rapporto Industry Outlook di Moody's Investors Service pubblicato oggi.

"Per il 2012 adesso prevediamo un calo del 6,2%, a 13,4 milioni di unità, diversamente dalla previsione di stabilità espressa nel nostro ultimo Industry Outlook pubblicato a settembre 2011" afferma Falk Frey, Senior Vice President di Moody's Corporate Finance Group. "Secondo le nostre previsioni, i cali più sensibili si registreranno in Francia (-10%), Italia (-7%) e Regno Unito (-7%)" spiega Frey. "Le case costruttrici di questi Paesi saranno quelle che più risentiranno delle misure di austerity avviate dai rispettivi governi, oltre che della situazione economica tuttora critica e della conseguente prevedibile diminuzione degli acquisti da parte dei consumatori."

Nonostante le mutate previsioni per l'Europa occidentale, Moody's mantiene prospettive stabili per il settore automobilistico globale. "Le nostre prospettive si basano su una crescita globale della domanda di veicoli leggeri del 4,4% nel 2012 e del 4,5% nel 2013" continua Frey. "Rispetto alle previsioni precedenti, abbiamo ridotto di 0,9 milioni di unità la nostra stima dei volumi di vendite globali e ad oggi prevediamo che le unità vendute nel 2012 saranno 78,8 milioni; i volani principali della domanda restano la Cina, riguardo alla quale le nostre previsioni per il 2012 rimangono immutate, e gli Stati Uniti, nonostante una previsione per il 2012 di 0,5 milioni di unità in meno rispetto a quanto stimato in precedenza."

Moody's ha inoltre incrementato del 19,7% la previsione relativa alla domanda di veicoli leggeri in Giappone nel 2012, rispetto al 7,3% stimato a settembre 2011, considerando che nel 2011 la crescita ha subito l'impatto del terremoto e del successivo tsunami, mentre nel 2012 sarà sostenuta dalla prevista introduzione di incentivi statali per le nuove automobili a basso consumo. Queste misure dovrebbero far salire la domanda a 4,9 milioni di unità nel 2012. Per quanto riguarda il 2013, Moody's prevede un calo del 9,1%, che porterà a un volume più normale di 4.5 milioni di unità.

"Nonostante la minore crescita della domanda, secondo le nostre previsioni le case costruttrici beneficeranno del calo dei costi di produzione, soprattutto nel secondo semestre dell'anno in corso. Per questo motivo indichiamo prospettive stabili per il settore" aggiunge Frey.

La previsione di Moody's di un aumento del 3% della domanda di veicoli leggeri in Europa occidentale nel 2013 si fonda su un recupero graduale dell'economia; l'agenzia di rating rivedrà tale previsione in presenza di segnali di recessione prolungata. Moody's si riserva di modificare in negativo le prospettive per il settore automobilistico globale se l'Europa dovesse entrare in una fase di recessione più profonda e duratura, se venisse meno la fiducia dei consumatori e se i problemi relativi ai governi ed alle banche dell'area Euro si estendessero anche ad altre economie esterne all'Europa: tutte circostanze che potrebbero sortire l'effetto di alterare la domanda di autoveicoli su scala mondiale.

Il rapporto di Moody's, intitolato "Global Auto Manufacturers: European 2012 Auto Forecasts Revised Lower As Economic Challenges Continue", è disponibile sul sito www.moodys.com.

NOTA SOLO PER I GIORNALISTI: Per ulteriori informazioni chiamare uno dei numeri hotline dei nostri uffici stampa internazionali: Londra +44-20-7772-5456, New York +1-212-553-0376, Tokyo +813-5408-4110, Hong Kong +852-3758-1350, Sydney +61-2-9270-8141, Città del Messico 001-888-779-5833, São Paulo 0800-891-2518, o Buenos Aires 0800-666-3506. È possibile anche inviare una mail all'indirizzo mediarelations@moodys.com oppure visitare il nostro sito Internet www.moodys.com.

Falk Frey
Senior Vice President
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Deutschland GmbH
An der Welle 5
Frankfurt am Main 60322
Germany
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Eric de Bodard
MD - Corporate Finance
Corporate Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
Moody's Deutschland GmbH
An der Welle 5
Frankfurt am Main 60322
Germany
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Moody's: Ridotte le aspettative sulle vendite di automobili in Europa per il 2012 a causa del perdurare della difficile situazione economica
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