Moody's : Révision à la baisse des prévisions 2012 pour le secteur automobile européen face à une conjoncture économique encore défavorable
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Moody's : Révision à la baisse des prévisions 2012 pour le secteur automobile européen face à une conjoncture économique encore défavorable

Global Credit Research - 26 Jan 2012

Frankfurt am Main, January 26, 2012 -- En Europe occidentale, la demande pour les véhicules particuliers s'annonce en repli de 6,2% en 2012 par rapport à 2011 compte tenu de l'affaiblissement des fondamentaux économiques dans cette région, commente Moody's Investors Service dans sa dernière étude sur l'industrie automobile publiée ce jour.

« Nous anticipons désormais une baisse de 6,2%, à 13,4 millions d'unités en 2012, comparativement à la prévision de 0% annoncée dans notre dernière analyse sectorielle publiée en septembre 2011 » précise Falk Frey, Senior VP au sein du groupe Corporate Finance chez Moody's. « Selon nous, les pays où le retournement de l'activité sera vraisemblablement le plus marqué sont la France (-10%), l'Italie (-7%) et le Royaume Uni (-7%) » indique F. Frey. « En effet, les fabricants automobiles y seront avant tout affectés par les mesures d'austérité à l'initiative des gouvernements, mais aussi par une conjoncture économique encore difficile et la perspective d'un repli consécutif des dépenses de consommation ».

Malgré la révision des prévisions en Europe occidentale, Moody's a maintenu sa perspective stable à l'échelle internationale, pour l'industrie de la construction automobile. « Notre perspective repose sur une croissance de 4,4% pour 2012 et de 4,5% en 2013 pour la demande mondiale de véhicules particuliers » poursuit F. Frey. « Si par rapport à nos prévisions antérieures, nous avons revu de 0,9 millions d'unités à la baisse - soit un chiffre qui s'établit à 78,8 millions - nos anticipations sur le volume des ventes mondiales pour 2012, la demande demeurera essentiellement tirée par la Chine pour laquelle nous maintenons nos prévisions 2012, et les Etats-Unis, malgré un recul de 0,5 millions d'unités pour 2012 par rapport à nos prévisions antérieures. »

Moody's a par ailleurs révisé à la hausse à 19,7% ses prévisions de croissance de la demande de véhicules particuliers au Japon en 2012, contre 7,3% en septembre 2011. L'agence de notation invoque le fait que l'activité a, en 2011, été affectée par le séisme puis le tsunami qui s'est ensuivi. En 2012, l'activité sera soutenue par la mise en œuvre de mesures incitatives décidées par les pouvoirs publics pour l'achat de véhicules à meilleure performance éco-énergétique. Ceci devrait avoir pour effet de doper la demande, laquelle pourrait atteindre 4,9 millions d'unités en 2012. Pour 2013, Moody's table sur un repli de 9,1%, à 4,5 Millions d'unités, niveau plus proche de la normale.

« Malgré le ralentissement de la demande, les fabricants d'équipements d'origine devraient tirer parti de la baisse des coûts de production, notamment au second semestre 2012, une évolution en phase avec notre perspective, jugée stable » ajoute l'analyste.

Les prévisions 2013 de Moody's, qui attend une progression de 3% de la demande de véhicules particuliers en Europe occidentale, reposent sur une reprise progressive de l'activité économique. Néanmoins, l'agence les réviserait en présence de signes de récession plus durable. Moody's indique envisager de réviser à négative sa perspective pour le secteur automobile si l'Europe devait s'installer plus durablement dans une récession plus profonde, si la confiance des consommateurs devait s'afficher en repli et dans l'hypothèse où les difficultés auxquelles sont confrontés les pays et les banques de la zone euro s'étendraient au-delà des frontières européennes. Ceci pourrait en effet fortement peser sur la demande automobile à l'échelle mondiale.

Intitulée « Global Auto Manufacturers: European 2012 Auto Forecasts Revised Lower As Economic Challenges Continue », cette publication est disponible sur www.moodys.com.

NOTE À DESTINATION DES JOURNALISTES : Pour plus de précisions, veuillez contacter l'un de nos services presse suivants : Londres +44-20-7772-5456, New York +1-212-553-0376, Tokyo +813-5408-4110, Hong Kong +852-3758-1350, Sydney +61-2-9270-8141, Mexico 001-888-779-5833, São Paulo 0800-891-2518 ou Buenos Aires 0800-666-3506. Vous pouvez également nous contacter par courrier électronique à mediarelations@moodys.com ou vous rendre sur notre site internet www.moodys.com.

Falk Frey
Senior Vice President
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Deutschland GmbH
An der Welle 5
Frankfurt am Main 60322
Germany
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Eric de Bodard
MD - Corporate Finance
Corporate Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
Moody's Deutschland GmbH
An der Welle 5
Frankfurt am Main 60322
Germany
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Moody's : Révision à la baisse des prévisions 2012 pour le secteur automobile européen face à une conjoncture économique encore défavorable
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