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Moody's: Un ulteriore deterioramento sovrano avrebbe conseguenze negative per le compagnie assicurative europee

Global Credit Research - 01 Oct 2012

London, 01 October 2012 -- In un rapporto pubblicato in data odierna Moody's segnala che la qualità del credito dei gruppi assicurativi è legata a quella dei paesi in cui sono domiciliati e conducono le proprie attività assicurative, di conseguenza un ulteriore deterioramento della qualità del credito dei paesi europei avrebbero impatti negativi per le compagnie di assicurazione della regione. In virtù dei loro ingenti investimenti nel mercato del reddito fisso, le compagnie assicurative europee sono direttamente esposte al debito degli Stati e alle banche dell'area Euro, con una maggiore esposizione verso quei paesi in cui hanno una presenza rilevante. I gruppi assicurativi sono inoltre indirettamente esposti al progressivo indebolimento dei paesi dell'Eurozona, in quanto il deterioramento delle condizioni economiche connesso al peggioramento del merito di credito sovrano influisce sulla domanda di prodotti assicurativi, sul costo delle attività commerciali e sul comportamento degli assicurati.

Il nuovo rapporto, intitolato "How further sovereign stress would affect European insurers and their ratings" (Le conseguenze di un ulteriore deterioramento sovrano sulle compagnie assicurative europee e sui loro rating) può essere visualizzato da tutti gli abbonati ai servizi di Moody's tramite il link a piè di pagina.

Il rapporto illustra il potenziale impatto sulla qualità del credito e sui rating delle compagnie assicurative europee di tre diversi eventi avversi per la qualità del credito sovrano dell'Eurozona. Pur non costituendo le ipotesi centrali di Moody's, questi scenari sono plausibili alla luce dei concreti rischi di un peggioramento del quadro macroeconomico e della situazione complessiva sovrana dell'area Euro. La nuova relazione ne analizza le probabili conseguenze supposto che tali eventi si verifichino isolatamente, anche se in pratica potrebbero prodursi simultaneamente o in successione.

I tre eventi sfavorevoli analizzati da Moody's sono i seguenti:

(i) Nuova crisi di insolvenza della Grecia (rating C no outlook) e sua uscita dall'area Euro: in questo caso l'impatto negativo diretto sul merito di credito dei gruppi assicurativi sarebbe limitato vista la loro modesta esposizione finanziaria e operativa al paese. Si tratta di uno scenario che secondo Moody's non dovrebbe, di per sé, determinare l'abbassamento dei rating delle compagnie di assicurazione.

(ii) Ulteriore deterioramento della qualità del credito della Spagna (rating Baa3 review for downgrade) e dell'Italia (rating Baa2 negative): in questa ipotesi vi sarebbero delle conseguenze negative per il merito di credito delle società assicurative spagnole e italiane. In aggiunta, se la qualità del credito dei due paesi scendesse sotto il livello investment-grade, anche i rating delle compagnie di assicurazione straniere con sostanziale esposizione alla Spagna o all'Italia potrebbero risentirne negativamente.

(iii) Lieve deterioramento del merito di credito dei maggiori paesi europei con rating Aaa (a livello medio/alto del rating sovrano Aa): in questa eventualità non vi sarebbero impatti diretti per il profilo di credito delle società di assicurazione. Tuttavia, se la qualità del credito delle economie più solide dell'Eurozona dovesse scendere attorno al livello di rating A, un numero più ampio di gruppi assicurativi europei con rating Aa rischierebbe il declassamento.

Il rapporto di Moody's sulle "Le conseguenze di un ulteriore deterioramento sovrano sulle compagnie assicurative europee e sui loro rating" è visualizzabile immediatamente sul sito www.moodys.com.

http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_145715

****

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MD - Financial Institutions
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Moody's: Un ulteriore deterioramento sovrano avrebbe conseguenze negative per le compagnie assicurative europee
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