Approximately $151.6 Million of Structured Securities Affected
New York, August 30, 2011 -- Moody's has upgraded the ratings of four and affirmed the ratings of two
classes of Notes issued by Guggenheim Structured Real Estate Funding 2005-2
primarily due to $66.8 million in full amortization of collateral
since our last review in September 2010. Additionally, the
underlying collateral performance has been relatively stable as evidenced
by the Moody's weighted average rating factor (WARF) and recovery
rate (WARR). The affirmations are due to key transaction parameters
performing within levels commensurate with the existing ratings levels
on those classes of notes. The rating action is the result of Moody's
on-going surveillance of commercial real estate collateralized
debt obligation (CRE CDO) transactions.
Cl. A Notes, Upgraded to Aa3 (sf); previously on Sep
2, 2010 Downgraded to Baa3 (sf)
Cl. B Notes, Upgraded to Ba2 (sf); previously on Sep
2, 2010 Downgraded to B2 (sf)
Cl. C Notes, Upgraded to B3 (sf); previously on Sep
2, 2010 Downgraded to Caa2 (sf)
Cl. D Notes, Upgraded to Caa3 (sf); previously on Sep
2, 2010 Downgraded to C (sf)
Cl. E Notes, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on Sep 2,
2010 Downgraded to C (sf)
Cl. F Notes, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on Sep 2,
2010 Downgraded to C (sf)
RATINGS RATIONALE
Guggenheim Structured Real Estate Funding 2005-2 is currently a
static cash CRE CDO transaction (the reinvestment period ended August
2010) backed by a portfolio of commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS)
(25.0% of the pool balance), A-Notes and whole
loans (24.2% of the pool balance), B-Notes
(24.0%) and mezzanine loans (12.8%).
As of the August 18, 2011 Trustee report, the aggregate Note
balance of the transaction, including preferred shares, has
decreased to $186.7 million from $305.8 million
at issuance, with the paydown directed to the Class A Notes,
as a result of amortization of the underlying collateral as well as failing
the Class D and E par value tests.
There are four assets with a par balance of $65.5 million
(35.3% of the current pool balance) that are considered
Impaired Securities as of the August 18, 2011 Trustee report.
One of these assets (23.2% of the impaired balance) is an
A-Note, one asset is CMBS (39.7%), one
asset is a B-Note (21.3%) and one asset is a C-Note
(15.8%). Impaired Securities that are not CMBS are
defined as assets which are 60 or more days delinquent in their debt service
payment. However, the B-Note has been modified and
is current. While there have been no realized losses to the three
remaining impaired assets to date, Moody's does expect significant
losses to occur once they are realized.
Moody's has identified the following parameters as key indicators of the
expected loss within CRE CDO transactions: weighted average rating
factor (WARF), weighted average life (WAL), weighted average
recovery rate (WARR), and Moody's asset correlation (MAC).
These parameters are typically modeled as actual parameters for static
deals and as covenants for managed deals.
WARF is a primary measure of the credit quality of a CRE CDO pool.
We have completed updated credit estimates for the non-Moody's
rated collateral. The bottom-dollar WARF is a measure of
the default probability within a collateral pool. Moody's
modeled a bottom-dollar WARF of 6,007 compared to 6,054
at last review. The distribution of current ratings and credit
estimates is as follows: Aaa-Aa3 (3.7% compared
to 4.4% at last review), A1-A3 (0.0%
compared to 3.9% at last review), Baa1-Baa3
(11.2% compared to 4.4% at last review),
Ba1-Ba3 (4.8% compared to 6.1% at last
review), B1-B3 (0.0% compared to 0.0%
at last review), and Caa1-C (80.2% compared
to 81.1% at last review).
WAL acts to adjust the probability of default of the collateral in the
pool for time. Moody's modeled to a WAL of 1.0 years compared
to 1.6 at last review.
WARR is the par-weighted average of the mean recovery values for
the collateral assets in the pool. Moody's modeled a fixed
WARR of 20.2% compared to 21.8% at last review.
MAC is a single factor that describes the pair-wise asset correlation
to the default distribution among the instruments within the collateral
pool (i.e. the measure of diversity). Moody's
modeled a MAC of 12.3% compared to 13.8% at
last review.
Moody's review incorporated CDOROM® v2.8, one of Moody's
CDO rating models, which was released on January 24, 2011.
The cash flow model, CDOEdge® v3.2.1.0,
was used to analyze the cash flow waterfall and its effect on the capital
structure of the deal.
Changes in any one or combination of the key parameters may have rating
implications on certain classes of rated notes. However,
in many instances, a change in key parameter assumptions in certain
stress scenarios may be offset by a change in one or more of the other
key parameters. Rated notes are particularly sensitive to changes
in recovery rate assumptions. Holding all other key parameters
static, changing the recovery rate assumption down from 20.2%
to 10.2% or up to 30.2% would result in average
rating movement on the rated tranches of 1 to 5 notches downward and 1
to 3 notches upward, respectively.
The performance expectations for a given variable indicate Moody's forward-looking
view of the likely range of performance over the medium term. From
time to time, Moody's may, if warranted, change these
expectations. Performance that falls outside the given range may
indicate that the collateral's credit quality is stronger or weaker than
Moody's had anticipated when the related securities ratings were issued.
Even so, a deviation from the expected range will not necessarily
result in a rating action nor does performance within expectations preclude
such actions. The decision to take (or not take) a rating action
is dependent on an assessment of a range of factors including, but
not exclusively, the performance metrics. Primary sources
of assumption uncertainty are the current sluggish macroeconomic environment
and performance in the commercial real estate property markets.
While commercial real estate property markets are gaining momentum,
a consistent upward trend will not be evident until the volume of transactions
increases, distressed properties are cleared from the pipeline and
job creation rebounds. The hotel and multifamily sectors are continuing
to show signs of recovery through the first half of 2011, while
recovery in the non-core office and retail sectors are tied to
pace of recovery of the broader economy. Core office markets are
showing signs of recovery through lending and leasing activity.
The availability of debt capital continues to improve with terms returning
toward market norms. Moody's central global macroeconomic scenario
reflects an overall sluggish recovery as the most likely scenario through
2012, amidst ongoing individual, corporate and governmental
deleveraging, persistent unemployment, and government budget
considerations, however the downside risks to the outlook have risen
since last quarter.
The principal methodology used in this rating was "Moody's Approach to
Rating SF CDOs" published in November 2010. Please see the Credit
Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.
Other methodology used in this rating was "Moody's Approach to Rating
Commercial Real Estate CDOs" published in July 2011.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt,
this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation
to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series
or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings
are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's
rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider,
this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation
to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular
rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the
support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings,
this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation
to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive
rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt,
in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed
prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would
have affected the rating. For further information please see the
ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
Information sources used to prepare the rating are the following:
parties involved in the ratings, parties not involved in the ratings,
public information, confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors
Service's information, confidential and proprietary Moody's
Analytics' information.
Moody's did not receive or take into account a third party assessment
on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial
instruments related to the monitoring of this transaction in the past
six months.
Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated
entity, obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing
a rating.
Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses
in assigning a rating is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's
considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent
third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor
and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information
received in the rating process.
Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process
page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning
of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.
Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for the last rating action and the rating history.
The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time
before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not
be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that
it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information
that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page
on our website www.moodys.com for further information.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
New York
Zhonghui (Grace) Wu
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
New York
Deryk Meherik
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Moody's Upgrades Four and Affirms Two Classes of Guggenheim Structured Real Estate Funding 2005-2