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Announcement:

Moody's adjusts Portugal's country ceilings to Baa3

Global Credit Research - 05 Sep 2012

New York, September 05, 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service has today adjusted the country ceilings for Portugal's local- and foreign-currency bonds and deposits to Baa3 from Aaa. This means that the highest rating that can be assigned to a domestic issuer in Portugal or to a structured finance security backed by Portuguese-domiciled receivables has now been lowered to Baa3. At the same time, Moody's has also adjusted the short-term foreign-currency debt and deposit ceilings to Prime-3 from Prime-1.

Moody's notes that these changes have no rating implications for rated issuers in Portugal, as none are currently rated above the revised ceiling level of Baa3. Moody's is however likely to downgrade to a maximum of Baa3 all structured finance (SF) transactions backed by Portuguese receivables currently rated above Baa3, which are already subject to a maximum SF rating of Baa1. The same is true of rated covered bond that are backed by Portuguese receivables whose senior-most tranche ratings that currently exceed Baa3.

RATIONALE

Moody's decision to adjust Portugal's country ceiling is based on the rating agency's assessment of the risks of economic and financial instability in the country and the likely impact this would have on all other borrowers and SF instruments in Portugal, as income and access to liquidity and funding could be significantly curtailed under stressed conditions. The ceiling also reflects the risk of exit and redenomination in the unlikely event of a default by the sovereign. At the same time, the three-notch gap between the government debt rating of Ba3 and the ceiling of Baa3 provides room for higher ratings for some asset classes with stronger intrinsic credit characteristics and with the capacity to absorb the economic and financial pressures that could stem from a sovereign default.

Uncertainty concerning debt market access remains for many governments in the euro area. While the Portuguese government has been issuing substantial amounts of Treasury bills up to 18-months maturity, it is not yet clear whether it will regain access to the longer-term global capital markets in September 2013 as currently planned. If the government needed to request a second bailout, official creditors may require Portugal to implement a debt restructuring with its private sector creditors, even though official creditors have ruled out any such restructurings beyond the one completed in Greece as a condition to that country's second support package.

If the Portuguese government's debt rating were to fall further from its current Ba3 level, Moody's would likely reassess the country ceiling at that time. Similarly, Moody's would also reassess the country ceiling in the event of an upgrade of the Portuguese government's bond rating.

Moody's country ceilings capture externalities and event risks that arise unavoidably as a consequence of locating a business in a particular country and that ultimately constrain domestic issuers' ability to service their debt obligations. As such, the ceiling encapsulates elements of economic, financial, political and legal risks in a country, including political instability, the risk of government intervention, the risk of systemic economic disruption, severe financial instability risks, currency redenomination and natural disasters, among other factors, that need to be incorporated into the ratings of the strongest issuers. The ceiling caps the credit rating of all issuers and transactions with material exposure to those risks -- in other words, it affects all domestic issuers and transactions other than those whose assets and revenues are predominantly sourced from or located outside of the country, or which benefit from an external credit support.

For a more detailed discussion of Moody's approach to country risk ceilings, please see Moody's Rating Implementation Guidance entitled "Local-Currency Country Risk Ceiling for Bonds and Other Local Currency Obligations", published on 16 August 2012.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

The Global Scale Credit Ratings on this press release that are issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU are endorsed by Moody's Investors Service Ltd., One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E 14 5FA, UK, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that has issued a particular Credit Rating is available on www.moodys.com.

Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entity, obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing a rating.

Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a rating is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.

Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.

Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history. The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Kristin Lindow
Senior Vice President
Sovereign Risk Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Bart Oosterveld
MD - Sovereign Risk
Sovereign Risk Group
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Moody's adjusts Portugal's country ceilings to Baa3
No Related Data.

 

© 2013 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.

 


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