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Rating Action:

Moody's affirms Elmhurst Memorial Healthcare's (IL) Baa2 long-term and underlying bond ratings; Outlook revised to negative from stable

Global Credit Research - 10 Jan 2013

Action affects approximately $495 million of rated debt outstanding

New York, January 10, 2013 --

Moody's Investors Service has affirmed Elmhurst Memorial Healthcare's (EMHC) Baa2 long-term rating. The rating outlook is revised to negative from stable, reflecting EMHC's weak operating performance in the first quarter (Q1) of fiscal year (FY) 2013 and continued aggressive debt and swap structure. This action affects approximately $495 million of rated debt outstanding. Rated debt includes Series 2008B,C,D,&E variable rate demand obligation (VRDO) bonds. The Series 2008B,C,D,&E VRDO bonds are supported by letters of credit (LOC) from JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., RBS Citizens, N.A., The Northern Trust Company, and Fifth Third Bank. The LOCs expire July 15, 2013, although management expects to receive extensions on the LOCs in the coming weeks (the rating decision factors our expectation that EMHC successfully will receive extensions/renewals on its LOCs).

SUMMARY RATING RATIONALE

The affirmation of the Baa2 rating reflects the fact that EMHC is beyond construction risks as the new replacement hospital opened in June 2011 (on time and under budget, according to management) and factors EMHC's improved operating performance in full year FY 2012. The negative outlook reflects EMHC's downturn in operating margins, from an adjusted operating cash flow margin of 7.4% in full year FY 2012 to 4.3% through five months FY 2013 (after EMHC had shown considerable improvement in the second half of FY 2012). While the decline in performance in interim FY 2013 is due in part to an increase in non-cash pension expense, core operating challenges surfaced such as inpatient volume declines (6.4% decrease in five months FY 2013, compared to the same period FY 2012). We are particularly sensitive to the weak performance in interim FY 2013 given EMHC's high debt load and debt/swap structure.

STRENGTHS

*While down from historically high levels, EMHC's absolute level of cash on hand remains favorable at the Baa2 rating level with adjusted 205 days cash on hand at fiscal year end (FYE) 2012 and 218 days at September 30, 2012. Management expects to grow cash in FY 2013 and beyond.

*EMHC's operating cash flow margin improved in full year FY 2012 (7.4% margin) compared to full year FY 2011 (3.8% margin) and through six months FY 2012 (4.5% margin).

*Favorable service area (the City of Elmhurst's general obligation rating is Aa1).

*With the replacement hospital operational since June 2011, EMHC's capital spending plans are manageable in the coming years. EMHC's average age of plant measured a low 6.4 years at FYE 2012 (all rating median is 10.5 years).

CHALLENGES

*Very leveraged Moody's adjusted debt coverage ratios (136% debt-to-total operating revenue, 20.2 times debt-to-cash flow, 1.7 times maximum annual debt service coverage, 40% cash-to-direct debt, and 84% cash-to-demand debt based on FY 2012 results).

*Weak operating results in Q1 FY 2013 (4.0% operating cash flow margin); while improved in subsequent months, based on adjustments to management prepared interims, EMHC's operating margins remain modest through five months FY 2013 (4.3% operating cash flow margin) and significantly behind plan.

*Approximately 50% of EMHC's debt was in VRDO mode at FYE 2012. EMHC has LOCs with four banks, including RBS (P-2 short-term rating) and Fifth Third Bank (P-2 short-term rating). EMHC's cash-to-demand and monthly liquidity-to-demand debt measured modest 84% and 72%, respectively, at FYE 2012.

*EMHC has a sizeable swap program with a total notional amount ($490 million at FYE 2012) that approached EMHC's total debt outstanding ($527 million) at FYE 2012. The swaps are spread among five counterparties.

*EMHC's defined benefit pension plan was $62 million underfunded at FYE 2012 (based on FASB accounting) compared to a pension benefit obligation of $228 million (73% funded ratio). Management notes that on an IRS funding basis, the plan had a funding ratio of 120% at January 1, 2012 (due to the different discount rate methodologies used by the IRS and FASB). Management notes that while there were no funding requirements to the plan on an IRS basis in the last two years, EMHC has made employer contributions of $5 million per year over the period.

*Competitive market with multiple hospital providers in EMHC's primary service area (PSA) and secondary area.

OUTLOOK

The negative outlook reflects EMHC's downturn in operating margins in interim FY 2013 (from an adjusted operating cash flow margin of 7.4% in full year FY 2012 to 4.3% through five months FY 2013). While the decline in performance in interim FY 2013 is due in part to an increase in non-cash pension expense, core operating challenges surfaced such as inpatient volume declines (6.4% decrease in five months FY 2013, compared to the same period FY 2012). We are particularly sensitive to the weak performance in interim FY 2013 given EMHC's high debt load and debt/swap structure.

WHAT COULD MAKE THE RATING GO UP

Unlikely in the near term given the negative outlook. Over the longer-term a sustained improvement in operating cash flow that translates into meaningful strengthening of margins; material improvement in debt coverage ratios; rebound in balance sheet measures

WHAT COULD MAKE THE RATING GO DOWN

Continued modest operating margins; any weakening of debt ratios leading to violation of financial covenants in LOC reimbursement agreements; unexpected weakening of cash position; significant market share loss

RATING METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in this rating was Not-For-Profit Healthcare Rating Methodology published in March 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

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Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history.

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Mark Pascaris
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Public Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
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Lisa Goldstein
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Moody's affirms Elmhurst Memorial Healthcare's (IL) Baa2 long-term and underlying bond ratings; Outlook revised to negative from stable
No Related Data.

 

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