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Announcement:

Moody's behält negativen Ausblick für deutsches Bankensystem bei

Global Credit Research - 19 Oct 2012

Frankfurt am Main, October 19, 2012 -- Der Ausblick für das deutsche Bankensystem ist nach wie vor negativ. Zu dieser Einschätzung gelangt die internationale Ratingagentur Moody's Investors Service in ihrer neuesten Bankensystemstudie, die heute veröffentlicht wurde. Die maßgeblichen Einflussfaktoren für die Beibehaltung des negativen Ausblicks sind 1. der Margendruck bei deutschen Banken, der auf den intensiven Wettbewerb, die niedrigen Zinsen und das eingeschränkte Wachstum im Kreditgeschäft zurückzuführen ist; 2. das sich abschwächende operative Umfeld vor dem Hintergrund anhaltender Rezession in Teilen Europas; 3. die steigenden Risikokosten und die sich verschlechternde Aktivaqualität; sowie 4. die eingeschränkte Verlustabsorptionskapazität vieler Banken.

Die neue Studie zur deutschen Bankenlandschaft ist unter dem Titel, "Banking System Outlook: Germany" auf der Moody's-Website unter www.moodys.com verfügbar. Abonnenten von Moody's können über den Link am Ende dieser Pressemitteilung direkt auf den Bericht zugreifen.

Laut Moody's sorgen der intensive Wettbewerb und die niedrigen Zinsen für Margendruck, der die ohnehin schwachen Erträge deutscher Banken in den nächsten 12 bis 18 Monaten weiter schrumpfen lassen dürfte. Die Banken konzentrieren sich wieder verstärkt auf ihr Inlandsgeschäft. Dies mindert zwar zumeist die Ausfallrisiken, erhöht gleichzeitig aber den strukturellen Druck auf die Ertragslage vor dem Hintergrund zusätzlicher Kosten, nachlassender Skaleneffekte und der Aussichten auf eine nur geringe Ausweitung des Kreditgeschäfts. Eine ungleichmäßige Verteilung der Rentabilität wird in den verschiedenen Teilsegmenten aller Voraussicht nach fortbestehen: Während die Sparkassen und örtlichen Genossenschaftsbanken von ihrem starken Privatkundengeschäft profitieren, sind die im Firmenkundengeschäft tätigen deutschen Wholesale-Banken weiter einem scharfen Wettbewerb ausgesetzt.

Trotz der bislang soliden Konjunkturindikatoren für Deutschland (hohe Beschäftigungsquote, moderate Verschuldung der privaten Haushalte und ein alles in allem robuster Industriesektor) werden sich die operativen Rahmenbedingungen für die deutschen Banken in den nächsten 12 bis 18 Monaten schwierig gestalten. Wie bereits im August berichtet, geht Moody's in seinem zentralen makroökonomischen Risikoszenario für Deutschland von einem BIP-Wachstum zwischen einem und zwei Prozent im Jahr 2013 aus. Angesichts der starken Exportabhängigkeit der deutschen Volkswirtschaft von anderen EU-Ländern und der sich daraus ergebenden konjunkturellen Interdependenz mit anderen Staaten Europas bestehen jedoch weiterhin erhebliche Abwärtsrisiken infolge der anhaltenden Krise im Euroraum.

Die steigenden Risikokosten, die von einzelnen Banken in ihren Ergebnisberichten für 2012 bislang ausgewiesen wurden, lassen auf eine allmähliche Verschlechterung der Qualität der inländischen Aktiva schließen. Nach wie vor bestehende Risikoengagements in Ländern des Euroraums, die unter erhöhtem Druck stehen, sowie Konzentrationen in hoch zyklischen Sektoren (wie Gewerbeimmobilien und Schiffsfinanzierungen) machen viele deutsche Banken anfällig für stark negative Entwicklungen, insbesondere für eine Verschärfung der Staatsschuldenkrise in Europa. Laut Moody's bedeuten die starke Hebelung deutscher Bankbilanzen und die niedrigen Ergebnisse vor Risikokosten, dass größere (unvorhergesehenen) Verluste viele deutsche Banken vor Herausforderungen stellen würden.

Abonnenten können über diesen Link auf den Bericht zugreifen: http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_145492

HINWEIS FÜR JOURNALISTEN: Für weitere Auskünfte wenden Sie sich bitte telefonisch an eine unserer Presse-Hotlines in London, Tel. +44 20 7772-5456; New York, Tel. +1 212 553-0376; Tokio, Tel. +813 5408-4110; Hongkong, Tel. +852 3758-1350; Sydney, Tel. +61 2 9270-8141; Mexiko-Stadt, Tel. +1 888 779-5833; São Paulo, Tel. +1 0800 891-2518; oder Buenos Aires, Tel. +1 0800 666-3506. Alternativ können Sie uns auch gerne eine E-Mail an mediarelations@moodys.com schicken oder uns im Internet unter www.moodys.com besuchen.

Katharina Barten
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Deutschland GmbH
An der Welle 5
Frankfurt am Main 60322
Germany
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Carola Schuler
MD - Banking
Financial Institutions Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
Moody's Deutschland GmbH
An der Welle 5
Frankfurt am Main 60322
Germany
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Moody's behält negativen Ausblick für deutsches Bankensystem bei
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