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Rating Action:

Moody's downgrades National Bank of Bahrain to Baa2; outlook stable

Global Credit Research - 11 Apr 2013

Limassol, April 11, 2013 -- Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded by one notch the deposit ratings of National Bank of Bahrain (NBB) to Baa2 from Baa1 and the standalone bank financial strength rating (BFSR) to D+, equivalent to a baseline credit assessment (BCA) of baa3, from C-/ baa2. Moody's also affirmed NBB's Prime-2 short-term deposit ratings. All ratings now carry a stable outlook.

The rating actions reflect (1) a weakening in NBB's asset quality and provisioning coverage; (2) the challenging domestic operating environment, which will exert further pressure on NBB's financial metrics; and (3) NBB's recent investment in Bahrain Islamic Bank (BIsB; deposits Ba3 negative, BFSR E+/ BCA b3 negative).

The outlook on NBB's ratings is stable, as the operating environment and asset quality risks outlined above are counterbalanced by (1) a healthy loss-absorption capacity; and (2) solid liquidity and funding profile.

RATINGS RATIONALE

--- WEAKENING OF ASSET QUALITY

Moody's says that the primary rating driver of the downgrade is the weakening in NBB's asset quality, with non-performing loans (NPLs) to gross loans increasing to 7.6% as of year-end 2012, from 1.8% as of year-end 2011, primarily due to one problematic corporate exposure in the construction sector. Consequently, NBB's provisioning coverage has weakened, with loan-loss reserves accounting for 40% of NPLs as of year-end 2012, from 104% as of year-end 2011. While NBB notes that it maintains collateral against NPLs, Moody's considers that there is a high risk of further provisioning requirements as (1) the realisation of the real-estate collateral (related to the aforementioned corporate exposure) is uncertain because the project has not yet been completed, and (2) the Bahraini real-estate market remains under pressure.

The significant increase in NPL levels, which stems from a single exposure, also highlights the risks surrounding NBB's high asset concentrations, with its top 20 exposures accounting for over 200% of Tier 1 capital as of year-end 2012. At the same time, a high level of restructured loans within NBB's loan book (at 4.7% of gross loans during 2012) presents a further potential risk to NBB's asset quality if operating conditions do not improve.

--- CHALLENGING OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Despite the benefits of high government spending, Bahraini banks (including NBB) are faced with a challenging operating environment, characterised by social unrest, fragile consumer confidence and a troubled real-estate sector. As a result, Moody's expects economic growth to remain well below pre-crisis growth levels, while a resurgence of large-scale protests also remains a key downside event risk for the Bahraini economy and banking system. Within this context, Moody's expects further pressure on NBB's asset quality, profitability and business-growth potential.

--- INVESTMENT IN BIsB

The downgrade also takes into account downside risks related to NBB's recent 25.8% stake in BIsB, an investment that makes up 6% of NBB's Tier 1 capital. BIsB has been loss-making for the past four years and continues to generate losses; as such, Moody's believes that any further losses by BIsB would weigh on NBB's own financial performance. In addition, NBB may need to contribute to any potential capital injection that BIsB might require, which Moody's estimates could take the total investment to around 10% of NBB's Tier 1 capital.

STABLE OUTLOOK

The outlook on NBB's ratings is stable, as the operating environment and asset quality risks outlined above are counterbalanced by (1) a healthy loss-absorption capacity, with a December 2012 Tier 1 capital of 23.8% (post-dividend) and the pre-provision income-to-total average risk-weighted assets ratio of 5.6%; and (2) solid liquidity and funding profile.

NBB's deposit rating of Baa2 continues to incorporate one notch of systemic support uplift, reflecting Moody's assessment of a very high probability of systemic support from Bahrain (rated Baa1).

WHAT COULD MOVE THE RATINGS UP/DOWN

Negative rating pressure could be exerted on the ratings if the ongoing weaknesses in the Bahraini operating environment translate into higher provisioning expenses and asset-quality deterioration that exceeds Moody's expectations.

Given the challenging operating conditions in Bahrain, there is currently limited upward rating pressure. In the longer term, the ratings may be upgraded following (1) evidence of economic resilience in Bahrain and of a recovery in the currently weak real-estate sector; and (2) a material improvement in NBB's asset-quality metrics and a strengthening in its loan-loss provisioning coverage.

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGIES

The principal methodology used in this rating was Moody's Consolidated Global Bank Rating Methodology published in June 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

Headquartered in Manama, Bahrain, National Bank of Bahrain had total assets of BHD2.7 billion ($7.2 billion) as of year-end 2012.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

This rating was initiated by Moody's and was not requested by the rated entity.

This rated entity or its agent(s) participated in the rating process. The rated entity or its agent(s) provided Moody's access to the books, records and other relevant internal documents of the rated entity.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Christos Theofilou
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Investors Service Cyprus Ltd.
Kanika Business Centre
319 28th October Avenue
PO Box 53205
Limassol CY 3301
Cyprus
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Yves J Lemay
MD - Banking
Financial Institutions Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Cyprus Ltd.
Kanika Business Centre
319 28th October Avenue
PO Box 53205
Limassol CY 3301
Cyprus
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Moody's downgrades National Bank of Bahrain to Baa2; outlook stable
No Related Data.

 

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