Limassol, April 11, 2013 -- Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded by one notch the
deposit ratings of National Bank of Bahrain (NBB) to Baa2 from Baa1 and
the standalone bank financial strength rating (BFSR) to D+,
equivalent to a baseline credit assessment (BCA) of baa3, from C-/
baa2. Moody's also affirmed NBB's Prime-2 short-term
deposit ratings. All ratings now carry a stable outlook.
The rating actions reflect (1) a weakening in NBB's asset quality
and provisioning coverage; (2) the challenging domestic operating
environment, which will exert further pressure on NBB's financial
metrics; and (3) NBB's recent investment in Bahrain Islamic
Bank (BIsB; deposits Ba3 negative, BFSR E+/ BCA b3 negative).
The outlook on NBB's ratings is stable, as the operating environment
and asset quality risks outlined above are counterbalanced by (1) a healthy
loss-absorption capacity; and (2) solid liquidity and funding
profile.
RATINGS RATIONALE
--- WEAKENING OF ASSET QUALITY
Moody's says that the primary rating driver of the downgrade is
the weakening in NBB's asset quality, with non-performing
loans (NPLs) to gross loans increasing to 7.6% as of year-end
2012, from 1.8% as of year-end 2011,
primarily due to one problematic corporate exposure in the construction
sector. Consequently, NBB's provisioning coverage has
weakened, with loan-loss reserves accounting for 40%
of NPLs as of year-end 2012, from 104% as of year-end
2011. While NBB notes that it maintains collateral against NPLs,
Moody's considers that there is a high risk of further provisioning
requirements as (1) the realisation of the real-estate collateral
(related to the aforementioned corporate exposure) is uncertain because
the project has not yet been completed, and (2) the Bahraini real-estate
market remains under pressure.
The significant increase in NPL levels, which stems from a single
exposure, also highlights the risks surrounding NBB's high
asset concentrations, with its top 20 exposures accounting for over
200% of Tier 1 capital as of year-end 2012. At the
same time, a high level of restructured loans within NBB's
loan book (at 4.7% of gross loans during 2012) presents
a further potential risk to NBB's asset quality if operating conditions
do not improve.
--- CHALLENGING OPERATING ENVIRONMENT
Despite the benefits of high government spending, Bahraini banks
(including NBB) are faced with a challenging operating environment,
characterised by social unrest, fragile consumer confidence and
a troubled real-estate sector. As a result, Moody's
expects economic growth to remain well below pre-crisis growth
levels, while a resurgence of large-scale protests also remains
a key downside event risk for the Bahraini economy and banking system.
Within this context, Moody's expects further pressure on NBB's
asset quality, profitability and business-growth potential.
--- INVESTMENT IN BIsB
The downgrade also takes into account downside risks related to NBB's
recent 25.8% stake in BIsB, an investment that makes
up 6% of NBB's Tier 1 capital. BIsB has been loss-making
for the past four years and continues to generate losses; as such,
Moody's believes that any further losses by BIsB would weigh on
NBB's own financial performance. In addition, NBB may
need to contribute to any potential capital injection that BIsB might
require, which Moody's estimates could take the total investment
to around 10% of NBB's Tier 1 capital.
STABLE OUTLOOK
The outlook on NBB's ratings is stable, as the operating environment
and asset quality risks outlined above are counterbalanced by (1) a healthy
loss-absorption capacity, with a December 2012 Tier 1 capital
of 23.8% (post-dividend) and the pre-provision
income-to-total average risk-weighted assets ratio
of 5.6%; and (2) solid liquidity and funding profile.
NBB's deposit rating of Baa2 continues to incorporate one notch of systemic
support uplift, reflecting Moody's assessment of a very high
probability of systemic support from Bahrain (rated Baa1).
WHAT COULD MOVE THE RATINGS UP/DOWN
Negative rating pressure could be exerted on the ratings if the ongoing
weaknesses in the Bahraini operating environment translate into higher
provisioning expenses and asset-quality deterioration that exceeds
Moody's expectations.
Given the challenging operating conditions in Bahrain, there is
currently limited upward rating pressure. In the longer term,
the ratings may be upgraded following (1) evidence of economic resilience
in Bahrain and of a recovery in the currently weak real-estate
sector; and (2) a material improvement in NBB's asset-quality
metrics and a strengthening in its loan-loss provisioning coverage.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGIES
The principal methodology used in this rating was Moody's Consolidated
Global Bank Rating Methodology published in June 2012. Please see
the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this
methodology.
Headquartered in Manama, Bahrain, National Bank of Bahrain
had total assets of BHD2.7 billion ($7.2 billion)
as of year-end 2012.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series
or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings
are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's
rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular
rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the
support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive
rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt,
in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed
prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would
have affected the rating. For further information please see the
ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit
support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and
whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the
associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity.
Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures,
if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure
to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
This rating was initiated by Moody's and was not requested by the rated
entity.
This rated entity or its agent(s) participated in the rating process.
The rated entity or its agent(s) provided Moody's access to the
books, records and other relevant internal documents of the rated
entity.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Christos Theofilou
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Investors Service Cyprus Ltd.
Kanika Business Centre
319 28th October Avenue
PO Box 53205
Limassol CY 3301
Cyprus
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Yves J Lemay
MD - Banking
Financial Institutions Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Cyprus Ltd.
Kanika Business Centre
319 28th October Avenue
PO Box 53205
Limassol CY 3301
Cyprus
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Moody's downgrades National Bank of Bahrain to Baa2; outlook stable