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Global Credit Research - 31 Aug 2012
London, 31 August 2012 -- In its annual credit report on Switzerland, Moody's Investors Service
says that the Aaa sovereign rating and stable outlook are underpinned
by very high levels of economic, institutional and government financial
strength, which contribute to the country's low susceptibility
to event risk.
Moody's report is an annual update to the markets and does not constitute
a rating action. The rating agency determines a country's sovereign
rating by assessing it on the basis of four key factors --
economic strength, institutional strength, government financial
strength and susceptibility to event risk -- as well as
the interplay between them.
The economic strength assessment of very high, reflects high average
incomes, which Moody's expects to be maintained over the long
term. Moreover, the rating agency notes that Switzerland
has an open, highly developed and diversified economy that is both
a major financial centre and an important producer of chemicals and pharmaceuticals.
The country also has a long history of fiscal prudence, low inflation
and benefits from a strong net external creditor position. Although
the strength of the Swiss franc has caused problems for exporters in the
context of the current crisis, the central bank's efforts
to try and limit the appreciation in the franc are, on balance,
credit-positive despite the longer-term inflation risks
that they raise.
Moody's says that Switzerland's very high institutional strength
reflects the fact that the political system is highly transparent and
robust. This is supported by the country's political stability,
although its referendum democracy tends to result in a cumbersome reform
and deregulation process.
Moody's very high assessment of Switzerland's government financial
strength is supported by the broad consensus on fiscal discipline in the
country, which was institutionalised by fiscal rules (the so-called
"debt brake") that came into force in 2003. The public
debt burden now compares favourably with the country's payment capacity,
as indicated by the debt-to-revenue and interest-to-revenue
ratios. The government's adjustment capacity is also significant,
with no major constraints on its ability to generate additional revenue
or restrain expenditures and ready access to finance in the event of need.
Switzerland has a very large banking sector relative to the size of the
overall economy, and households' levels of mortgage debt are
quite large relative to GDP. However, Moody's assessment
of low susceptibility to event risk reflects its opinion that Switzerland's
Aaa ratings would be able to withstand any large-scale government
support operation for the Swiss banking system due to the underlying economic
and institutional strength and financial strength of the Swiss government,
which has demonstrated its willingness and ability to act quickly and
decisively when a major financial institution has required its assistance.
Moody's subscribers can access the report at http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_144816.
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Sarah Carlson
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Sovereign Risk Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
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Bart Oosterveld
MD - Sovereign Risk
Sovereign Risk Group
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Releasing Office:
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Moody's issues annual credit report on Switzerland
No Related Data.
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