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Moody's: le società EMEA sono minacciate dalla crisi dell'eurozona e dalla debole crescita per il 2013

Global Credit Research - 06 Dec 2012

London, 06 December 2012 -- Secondo lo speciale rapporto di valutazione pubblicato oggi da Moody's Investors Service, l'ininterrotta crisi del debito sovrano dell'eurozona e una crescita debole o negativa del PIL nel 2013 saranno i principali fattori per il credito delle società non finanziarie in Europa, nel Medio Oriente e in Africa (EMEA).

Il nuovo rapporto, intitolato " EMEA Corporates: 2013 Outlook", è ora disponibile su www.moodys.com. Gli iscritti a Moody's possono accedervi tramite il link indicato in fondo al presente comunicato stampa.

"A livello di emittenti, Moody's prevede una persistente fragilità del credito, con un numero di declassamenti che probabilmente continuerà a superare quello delle promozioni per il 2013", afferma Jean-Michel Carayon, uno dei Senior Vice President di Moody's e co-autore del rapporto. L'agenzia di rating prevede una crescita limitata accompagnata da costanti misure di austerità intraprese dai governi: il risultato sarà uno smorzamento della spesa dei consumatori. Il problema colpirà soprattutto settori come quello delle telecomunicazioni, della vendita al dettaglio e della produzione automobilistica.

Ai primi di dicembre 2012, nella zona EMEA, il numero di previsioni stabili per il settore industriale (Industry Sector Outlooks, ISO) (previsioni che esprimono la valutazione di Moody's sulle condizioni commerciali che influenzano i suoi rating societari) era solo leggermente superiore al numero di quelle negative. Qualora le tendenze negative persistessero, nel corso del 2013 Moody's potrebbe ritoccare altre previsioni al ribasso. A febbraio, l'agenzia di rating ha modificato in senso negativo le proprie previsioni per i rivenditori europei e per i fornitori di ricambi per il settore auto EMEA e, sempre in senso negativo, ha modificato a novembre quelle per il settore chimico del Nord America e dell'EMEA.

Considerando la scarsa fiducia in una ripresa economica, gli emittenti appartenenti a settori ciclici come quello dell'acciaio, chimico e dei materiali edili, hanno un margine limitato per la fragilità del credito nell'ambito delle attuali categorie di rating. La domanda limitata si ripercuoterà inoltre sui profitti di vari segmenti del settore chimico, colpendo anche grandi gruppi come Akzo Nobel NV (Baa1, attualmente sotto esame in vista di un declassamento), che rimangono esposti a segmenti con risultati deludenti. Per quanto riguarda il settore dei materiali edili, sono le imprese meno diversificate a livello geografico come Italcementi SpA (Ba2 negativo) a essere più vulnerabili.

La divergenza nei risultati operativi tra le società con maggiore esposizione verso i mercati dell'Europa meridionale e quelle con maggiore esposizione verso l'Europa settentrionale rimane elevata, come indicato ad esempio dai risultati di Fiat SpA (Ba3 negativo) o Telefónica SA (Baa2 negativo). Moody's fa anche presente che il rischio di un contagio economico da sud a nord Europa sta aumentando.

Inoltre, la transizione di grandi aziende da un grado di investimento a un grado speculativo ("angeli caduti") potrebbe modificare la conformazione dell'universo delle società non finanziarie soggette a rating in Europa e aggravare le condizioni già volatili del mercato dei capitali. ArcelorMittal (Ba1 negativo) è l'esempio più recente di "fallen angel" di alto profilo nella zona EMEA.

Per il prossimo anno Moody's prevede che il rallentamento della crescita economica dei mercati emergenti, e in special modo della Cina, sarà un fattore importante per il profilo di credito delle aziende attive nei settori ciclici quali quello chimico o della produzione di acciaio. Ciò potrebbe incidere sui profitti di quelle società europee che si sono rivolte ai mercati emergenti per bilanciare la crescita rallentata nei loro tradizionali mercati dell'Europa occidentale.

Complessivamente, la liquidità delle società rimane abbastanza robusta ma è probabile che nel 2013 si assisterà a un deterioramento graduale dovuto alla crisi del debito sovrano e generato dalle persistenti limitazioni alla concessione di prestiti da parte delle banche, intente a ridurre la leva finanziaria e a rafforzare la propria capitalizzazione.

Gli iscritti possono accedere al rapporto utilizzando questo link http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_146970

NOTE TO JOURNALISTS ONLY: For more information, please call one of our global press information hotlines: London +44-20-7772-5456, New York +1-212-553-0376, Tokyo +813-5408-4110, Hong Kong +852-3758-1350, Sydney +61-2-9270-8141, Mexico City 001-888-779-5833, São Paulo 0800-891-2518, or Buenos Aires 0800-666-3506. You can also email us at mediarelations@moodys.com or visit our web site at www.moodys.com.

Jean-Michel Carayon
Senior Vice President
Credit Policy - Corporates
Moody's France SAS
96 Boulevard Haussmann
Paris 75008
France
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Myriam Durand
MD - EMEA Corporate Finance
Corporate Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
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London E14 5FA
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JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Moody's: le società EMEA sono minacciate dalla crisi dell'eurozona e dalla debole crescita per il 2013
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