Moody's notes five risk scenarios for Asia Pacific banks
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Moody's notes five risk scenarios for Asia Pacific banks

Global Credit Research - 06 Feb 2012

Hong Kong, February 06, 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service says that while it expects a benign credit environment for Asia Pacific banks in 2012, there are still potential hazards that could develop into material adverse shocks for particular systems.

"These are not our central scenario, but what we consider as "tail risks", or low-probability, but potentially high-impact events that warrant close monitoring over the coming 12 months," says Stephen Long, a Moody's Managing Director for the Financial Institutions Group in Asia Pacific.

The report lists and discusses five downside risk scenarios that Moody's views as increasingly disturbing.

These include: (1) contagion risk from Europe's sovereign crisis; (2) the possibility of a hard landing for the Chinese economy; (3) the bursting of real estate bubbles in Asia; (4) a downturn in commodity prices; and (5) a downturn in the Australian property market.

Regarding contagion risk, Moody's believes that the banking systems in Australia, New Zealand, Korea and Vietnam are the most vulnerable to financial and economic shocks from a euro area crisis.

While another downside scenario is the risk of a China hard-landing, a somewhat comforting conclusion from Moody's stress test is that the profitability, loss reserves, and capital positions of Chinese banks still provide a strong cushion.

The report also says that a substantial downturn in real estate prices in Asia would only have a limited impact on the region's banking systems in general.

In addition, Moody's expects the credit impact of a commodity price downturn to vary across the region, with potential distress concentrated in net commodity exporters, but also a risk among midstream processors.

Finally, a downturn in the Australian property market is another single-economy tail risk identified in the analysis. However, Moody's notes that Australian banks are protected against the direct impact of falling house prices by their low loan-to-value ratios, and the use of mortgage insurance.

The report is titled "Asia Pacific Banks: Five Risk Scenarios for 2012." It can be accessed on www.moodys.com.

NOTE TO JOURNALISTS ONLY: For more information, please call one of our global press information hotlines: New York +1-212-553-0376, London +44-20-7772-5456, Tokyo +813-5408-4110, Hong Kong +852-3758-1350, Sydney +61-2-9270-8141, Mexico City 001-888-779-5833, Sao Paulo 0800-891-2518, or Buenos Aires 0800-666-3506. You can also email us at mediarelations@moodys.com or visit our web site at www.moodys.com.

Young Il Choi
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Investors Service Hong Kong Ltd.
24/F One Pacific Place
88 Queensway
Hong Kong
China (Hong Kong S.A.R.)
JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350
SUBSCRIBERS: (852) 3551-3077

Stephen Long
MD - Financial Institutions
Financial Institutions Group
JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350
SUBSCRIBERS: (852) 3551-3077

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Hong Kong Ltd.
24/F One Pacific Place
88 Queensway
Hong Kong
China (Hong Kong S.A.R.)
JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350
SUBSCRIBERS: (852) 3551-3077

Moody's notes five risk scenarios for Asia Pacific banks
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© 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.


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