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Announcement:

Moody's places GDF SUEZ's A1 ratings on review for downgrade

Global Credit Research - 03 Apr 2012

Approximately EUR19 billion rated debt securities affected

London, 03 April 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service has today placed on review for downgrade the A1 senior unsecured ratings of GDF SUEZ SA ("GDF SUEZ" or "the group"), and the ratings of the GIE SUEZ Alliance, which is guaranteed by GDF SUEZ, following the approach to buy out the International Power minority shareholders. Concurrently, Moody's has placed on review for downgrade the A3 issuer ratings of GDF SUEZ's subsidiaries Electrabel SA (Electrabel) and GDF SUEZ CC, which incorporate a degree of uplift as a result of these companies' membership of the group. In addition, Moody's has affirmed the Prime-1 ratings of GDF SUEZ and the GIE Suez Alliance, and the Prime-2 rating of Electrabel.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The review for downgrade follows the recent announcement that GDF SUEZ has made an approach to the independent directors of International Power plc (IPR, Baa3, under review for possible upgrade, see separate press release) regarding a possible cash offer of 390 pence per share for the remaining IPR shares it does not already own. The proposed offer remains indicative at this stage and subject to certain pre-conditions, and it is possible that a formal offer may not ultimately be forthcoming. However, Moody's notes that GDF SUEZ currently holds approximately 70% of IPR's share capital and that the proposal has been made with the support of its two largest shareholders, which include the French government (with a stake of 36% in GDF SUEZ).

Moody's notes that full ownership of IPR by GDF SUEZ would be consistent with the group's strategy, and should bring some additional benefits in terms of simplification of its structure and some further improvement in the integration between the businesses. "The review for downgrade nevertheless reflects the potential impact of the transaction on the group's financial risk profile if it were to complete," says Niel Bisset, a Moody's Senior Vice President and lead analyst for GDF SUEZ. "At the proposed offer price of 390 pence, Moody's estimates that the transaction would require a cash outlay of approximately EUR7.7 billion, a substantial increase on the group's EUR37.6 billion net financial debt at end-2011," explains Mr Bisset. This would have a negative impact on the group's credit metrics although Moody's notes the group's commitment to deleveraging it has demonstrated during 2011 as well as its statement that it would consider a revision upwards of its current disposal plans, and the planned scrip dividend option for 2012 which both the French State and Groupe Bruxelles Lambert have indicated they will take up.

The rating review will therefore evaluate the extent to which the transaction would delay progress on deleveraging and improvement in credit metrics seen during 2011 following the group's acquisition of its initial 70% stake in IPR. It will take account of the extent to which increased borrowings might be mitigated by offsetting measures including, potentially, asset disposals. Finally, it will consider the further evolution in the group's asset portfolio implied by the transaction and any potential associated asset disposals.

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING UP/DOWN

Moody's says that following the review the rating could be confirmed. Conversely, it could be lowered if the outlook was for the group's metrics to fall sustainably short of Moody's guidance for the A1 rating which includes funds from operations (FFO)/net debt in the twenties per cent range, retained cashflow (RCF)/net debt in the upper teens and FFO interest cover in excess of 5x. Moody's adds that any potential downgrade is likely to be limited to one notch.

On the basis of its 36% ownership by the French government, GDF SUEZ SA is considered a Government Related Issuer under Moody's Methodology. Given Moody's assumptions of strong support and moderate dependence, a one notch weakening of GDF SUEZ's baseline credit assessment (BCA) of 6/A2 would lead to a one notch downgrade of the assigned rating.

The review for downgrade of Electrabel follows that of its 100% parent GDF SUEZ, and reflects that the A3 rating incorporates a notch of uplift because of its strategic importance to the larger Group, as well as some uncertainty around the impact of the proposed transaction on Electrabel's own capital structure. The review for downgrade of GDF SUEZ CC follows that of GDF SUEZ and Electrabel. Moody's adds that since the rating of GDF SUEZ CC is based primarily on the implied support from GDF SUEZ through Electrabel as intermediate holding company, it is likely to follow the ratings of GDF SUEZ, while remaining effectively constrained by the rating of Electrabel.

The following ratings were placed on review for downgrade:

- GDF SUEZ SA: the A1 senior unsecured issuer and debt ratings and the (P)A1 senior and (P)A2 subordinated debt ratings

- GIE GDF SUEZ Alliance: the A1 senior unsecured issuer and debt ratings and the (P)A1 senior unsecured debt rating

- GDF SUEZ Finance SA: the guaranteed (P)A1 senior unsecured debt rating

- Belgelec Finance SA: the guaranteed A1 and (P)A1 senior unsecured debt ratings

- Electrabel SA: the guaranteed A1 and (P)A1 senior unsecured debt ratings and the A3 senior unsecured issuer rating

- GDF SUEZ CC: the A3 senior unsecured issuer rating

The following ratings were affirmed:

- GDF SUEZ SA: the Prime-1 and (P)Prime-1 short-term debt ratings

- GIE GDF SUEZ Alliance: the Prime-1 short-term issuer rating

- Electrabel SA: the guaranteed (P)Prime-1 short-term debt rating and the (P)Prime-2 short-term debt rating

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The methodologies used in this rating were Unregulated Utilities and Power Companies published in August 2009, and Government-Related Issuers methodology published in July 2010. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.

Headquartered in Paris, GDF SUEZ SA is one of the world's leading energy providers. It reported group turnover of EUR90.7 billion and EBITDA of EUR16.5 billion in 2011.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

The rating has been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.

Information sources used to prepare the rating are the following : parties involved in the ratings, parties not involved in the ratings, public information, confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's Analytics information.

Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entity, obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing a rating.

Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a rating is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.

Moody's Investors Service may have provided Ancillary or Other Permissible Service(s) to the rated entity or its related third parties within the two years preceding the credit rating action. Please see the special report "Ancillary or other permissible services provided to entities rated by MIS's EU credit rating agencies" on the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.

Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for general disclosure on potential conflicts of interests.

Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for information on (A) MCO's major shareholders (above 5%) and for (B) further information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities as well as (C) the names of entities that hold ratings from MIS that have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%. A member of the board of directors of this rated entity may also be a member of the board of directors of a shareholder of Moody's Corporation; however, Moody's has not independently verified this matter.

Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.

Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history. The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Niel Bisset
Senior Vice President
Infrastructure Finance
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Monica Merli
MD - Infrastructure Finance
Infrastructure Finance
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Moody's places GDF SUEZ's A1 ratings on review for downgrade
No Related Data.

 

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