Sydney, September 01, 2011 -- Moody's Investors Service says the outlook for Australia's
corporate sector is stable and reflects the expectations for the fundamental
credit conditions of the sector's major rated issuers over the next
12 to 18 months.
"We expect revenue and earnings growth to prevail, helped
by the demand for commodities, and a high employment rate,"
says Ian Lewis, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Credit
Officer.
"However, uncertainties in the global macro-environment
due to renewed signs of weakness are likely to make Australian firms more
cautious until the clear emergence of a recovery," he adds.
Lewis was speaking on the release of Moody's outlook on Australia's
corporate sector. The report focuses on major rated companies in
the real estate, telecom, retail and consumer, airlines,
metals and mining, oil and gas, and building materials sectors.
While the operating conditions for most corporates in the country are
benign, a persistently strong Australian dollar could weaken,
and increase volatility in, earnings. But, Moody's
believes most issuers are well positioned to manage the impact.
"For the retail sector we expect bouts of weakness as consumers remain
concerned about economic developments offshore, however overall
we expect retail sales to continue to hold up and grow at around GDP,
but not much faster," says Lewis.
Moody's also expects liquidity for the corporate sector to remain
solid.
"Overall, Australian issuers can manage their refinancing
over the next several years, with investment-grade issuers
better equipped and more prepared than before to tap diverse global debt
markets," Lewis says.
On the other hand, the austerity measures implemented by Australian
firms during the financial crisis are likely to continue, given
the current uncertainty in the global economy. This will hinder
mergers and acquisitions in the sector.
Also, input costs are unlikely to come down soon, while wage
levels and potential strikes could hurt some companies.
"We expect regional inflationary pressures, high oil prices,
and strong demand for commodities to lead to input cost pressures for
many manufacturers, transport companies, and others lacking
strong contractual pass-through or offsetting higher product prices,"
Lewis adds.
Additionally, given the increase in execution risk on large and
complex capital projects, cost overruns and delays will become more
prevalent, especially in the construction and resources sectors.
The report is entitled "Australian Corporate Sector Outlook."
It can be found on www.moodys.com.
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Sydney
Ian Lewis
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Pty. Ltd.
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Sydney
Terry Fanous
Senior Vice President
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Pty. Ltd.
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Moody's says outlook for Australian corporate sector stable