Singapore, October 27, 2011 -- Moody's Investors Service sees a positive outlook for the oil &
gas exploration and production (E&P) industry in Asia Pacific,
in line with the outlook for the global industry.
"Supporting this positive outlook are robust demand from emerging
markets, and the ability of the growth in production to outpace
softer oil prices -- with the consequent rise in earnings and margins
-- even though operating costs are rising," says Simon
Wong, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Analyst.
Moody's global pricing assumption for benchmark West Texas Intermediate
(WTI) is $90/barrel for 2011 and $80 for 2012, down
from $85 originally.
"At the same time, the increasing pace of acquisitions by
Asian E&P companies poses risks, while a higher proportion of
unconventional reserves may weigh on credit profiles as they do not result
in immediate, or even near-term benefits," adds
Wong.
Wong was speaking on the release of a Moody's special comment on
the outlook for the E&P industry in Asia Pacific, and which
looks at key sector trends, including the pace of acquisitions,
the outlook for margins, and the impact of a higher proportion of
unconventional reserves on credit profiles.
Moody's rates seven E&P companies in Asia Pacific with ratings
ranging from Aa3 to B2, and four integrated energy firms,
with operations across E&P as well as downstream refining and marketing,
and with ratings of Aa3 to Baa1. The report's release coincides
with the publication of a separate report on the region's refining
& marketing industry.
"The spike in oil prices earlier this year has moderated,
with likely increased supply from Libya, Iraq, and Brazil,
and expectations of a slowing global economy. However, demand
for oil should remain strong from continued economic growth in emerging
markets, while a shift to a greater reliance on natural gas in Japan,
China, and elsewhere will keep the region's prices for liquefied
natural gas robust," says Wong.
On acquisition and development costs, forays overseas -- encouraged
in many cases by governments -- incur event risks that tend
to have a negative impact on financial profiles in the short-to-medium
term, according to the Moody's report.
Moreover, acquisitions of unconventional assets do not result,
as indicated, in immediate, or even near-term benefits
to production and proved reserves because most such assets are still under
exploration and development. These assets require high up-front
capital investments, and a longer development period before realization
of commercial production. Finding and development (F&D) costs,
therefore, tend to escalate due to the much higher technical challenges
in extraction.
But, over the long term, the impact should turn positive if
acquisitions boost reserves and production, while diversification
from dwindling domestic reserves is another positive.
The report was authored by Wong, Vikas Halan, Kai Hu,
Matthew Moore, Mic Kang, Nidhi Dhruv and Nino Siu.
It is entitled, Upstream Asset Acquisitions: Short-Term
Pain, Long-Term Gain. It can be found at www.moodys.com
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Simon Wong
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.
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Philipp L. Lotter
Senior Vice President
Corporate Finance Group
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Moody's sees positive outlook for oil & gas E&P in Asia