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Moody's : une accentuation du risque souverain pèserait sur le secteur de l'assurance en Europe

Global Credit Research - 01 Oct 2012

London, 01 October 2012 -- La qualité de crédit des assureurs étant liée à celle de leur pays de domiciliation et d'exercice de leurs activités, toute nouvelle dégradation de la qualité de crédit des Etats en Europe s'avèrerait préjudiciable aux assureurs européens, annonce Moody's Investors Service dans une nouvelle étude publiée ce jour. En tant qu'investisseurs de premier plan sur les marchés obligataires, ceux-ci sont directement exposés aux dettes émises par les Etats et par les banques de la zone euro, avec une exposition particulièrement importante aux pays dans lesquels ils sont largement implantés. Les assureurs sont par ailleurs indirectement affectés par l'accentuation du risque souverain en zone euro, les bouleversements économiques qui en résultent ayant des répercussions sur la demande de produits d'assurance, mais aussi sur la flexibilité financière des assureurs et sur le comportement des assurés.

Intitulée « How further sovereign stress would affect European insurers and their ratings », cette publication est directement accessible aux abonnés Moody's (cf. lien figurant en fin de communiqué).

Dans ce document, Moody's explore trois scénarios de dégradation du contexte souverain en estimant leurs possibles implications sur la qualité de crédit et notation des assureurs européens. Si aucun de ces scénarios ne constitue le scénario de base retenu par Moody's, ils n'en demeurent pas moins plausibles compte tenu des risques actuels de détérioration de la situation en zone euro. Moody's examine les conséquences que ces scénarios sont de nature à avoir à supposer qu'ils surviennent isolément, sachant toutefois qu'il n'est pas exclu qu'ils se concrétisent simultanément ou successivement.

Les trois scénarios sur lesquels porte l'analyse de Moody's sont les suivants :

(i) La Grèce (C, absence de perspective) se retrouve en situation de défaut et sort de la zone euro : les répercussions directes de cet évènement sur la qualité de crédit des assureurs notés seraient limitées en raison de leur faible exposition à ce pays tant au niveau de leurs actifs qu'au niveau de leurs activités d'assurance. Moody's estime que cet évènement ne devrait pas, en soi, se traduire par des abaissements de notation des assureurs.

(ii) La qualité de crédit de l'Espagne (Baa3, notation sous surveillance négative) et de l'Italie (Baa2, perspective négative) se dégrade à nouveau : cet évènement pèserait sur la qualité de crédit des assureurs domiciliés dans ces pays. En outre, cet évènement pourrait avoir des répercussions sur les notations des assureurs non domiciliés en Espagne ou en Italie mais fortement exposés à ces pays si la qualité de crédit de l'Espagne et de l'Italie ne relevait plus de la catégorie investissement.

(iii) La qualité de crédit des grands Etats « Aaa » de la zone euro connaît une légère dégradation, mais à des niveaux de notation qui restent situés dans la fourchette haute à intermédiaire des « Aa » : un tel évènement ne pèserait pas directement, en tant que tel, sur la qualité de crédit des assureurs. Pourtant, si la qualité de crédit des Etats européens les plus résistants devait diminuer au point d'exiger un repositionnement de notation en catégorie « A », les groupes d'assurance européens notés « Aa » seraient alors plus nombreux à être exposés à un risque d'abaissement de notation.

Cette étude de Moody's est désormais disponible sous le titre « How further sovereign stress would affect European insurers and their ratings » sur www.moodys.com.

http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_145715

****

NOTE EXCLUSIVEMENT DESTINÉE AUX JOURNALISTES : Pour plus de précisions, veuillez contacter l'un de nos services presse suivants : Londres +44-20-7772-5456, New York +1-212-553-0376, Tokyo +813-5408-4110, Hong Kong +852-3758-1350, Sydney +61-2-9270-8141, Mexico 001-888-779-5833, São Paulo 0800-891-2518 ou Buenos Aires 0800-666-3506. Vous pouvez également nous contacter par courrier électronique à mediarelations@moodys.com ou vous rendre sur notre site internet www.moodys.com.

Benjamin Serra
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Financial Institutions Group
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MD - Financial Institutions
Financial Institutions Group
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Moody's : une accentuation du risque souverain pèserait sur le secteur de l'assurance en Europe
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