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CREDIT IMPACT OF LOWER OIL PRICES

 
Oil prices have fallen steeply since June 2014’s level of more than $100/barrel. The decline reflects a number of factors, including changes in supply, demand and exchange rates. This page provides a centralized source for Moody’s research on the credit impact of the sharp drop in oil prices.

Moody’s Investors Service Research 
Date Sector

 Title

04 Jan 2016 Corporates Oil and gas industry will slash spending in 2016 as price slump continues
15 Dec 2015 Corporates Oil and Natural Gas Industry – Global Threat of Prolonged Oversupply Drives
15 Dec 2015 Corporates Oil and Gas – Global 2016 Outlook – All Regions and Sectors Facing Lower-for-Longer Environment
02 Dec 2015 Corporates Growing stress in commodity sectors is a credit hazard for 2016
10 Nov 2015 Corporates Refining and Marketing - North America and EMEA: Margins Under Strain Amid Uneven Pickup in Fuel Demand
06 Nov 2015 Corporates Midstream Energy - Global: E&P Weakness Weighs on Midstream Growth Prospects
05 Nov 2015 Corporates Exploration and Production - Global: No Relief in Sight From Low Prices as Capex and Production Decline
19 Oct 2015 Corporates Global Oil and Natural Gas Industry: Continued Oversupply Compounds Weakening Demand
07 Oct 2015 Corporates North American E&P companies to see liquidity strained as borrowing bases fall on low oil prices
16 Sep 2015 Corporates Plummeting oil prices will squeeze oil and gas companies’ earnings, negative outlook will continue into 2016
14 Sep 2015 Corporates Negative industry conditions to persist for global offshore drillers, weakening credit quality
31 Aug 2015 Banking Depressed Oil Prices Will Lead to Higher Loan-Loss Provisions at US Banks
30 July 2015 Corporates Weak energy prices fuel rise of US corporate defaults in the second quarter of 2015
19 May 2015 Corporates US Corporate Defaults and Recoveries: Oil and Gas: The Bad, Ugly, and Good
12 May 2015 Structured Finance Auto Lease ABS: Growing Popularity of Trucks and SUVs Will Trigger Higher Pool Losses If Gas Prices Jump
7 May 2015 Corporates Moody's High-Yield Covenant Database: Investor Protections Remain Relatively Strong for Oil and Gas Bonds
6 May 2015 Insurance P&C Insurance: US P&C Insurers Have Modest Exposure to High-Risk Energy Investments
30 Apr 2015 Corporates US Corporate Default Monitor - First Quarter 2015: Energy-led Rise in Projected Default Rate Looks Manageable
27 Apr 2015 Banking Banking, Canada: Oil Price Slump Will Place Greatest Stress on Consumer Loan Exposures
16 Apr 2015 Corporates Non-Financial Corporate Global Industry Sector Outlooks: Positive Momentum Slips Worldwide as Oil-Related Outlooks Continue Retreat
15 Apr 2015 Corporates Oil and Gas Industry - Frequently Asked Investor Questions
14 Apr 2015 US Public Finance US State Governments: Low Oil Prices Fuel Increased Capacity for Highway Infrastructure Spending
14 Apr 2015 Corporates Canadian Exploration and Production: Most Speculative-Grade Companies Will Withstand Weak Prices in 2015
14 Apr 2015 Corporates Most Canadian spec-grade exploration and production companies set to withstand falling oil price
10 Apr 2015 Corporates Global Oil and Gas Industry: Oil and Natural Gas Price Assumptions Drop as Supply Outflanks Demand
07 Apr 2015 Corporates North American Oil and Gas Industry: Oil and Gas Companies’ Liquidity Will Stay Firm Longer Than In 2008-2009
07 Apr 2015 Utilities Global Liquefied Natural Gas Industry: Lower Oil Prices Cause Suppliers of Liquefied Natural Gas to Nix Projects
07 Apr 2015 Infrastructure and Project Finance Energy and Power Project Financings: Off-take Contracts Shield Energy Project Financings From Oil Price Drop
31 Mar 2015 Corporates Global Oilfield Services and Drilling: Weak Oil Prices and Deep Upstream Spending Cuts Will Prolong Pain
30 Mar 2015 Corporates North American Exploration and Production: Equity Issuance Improves E&P Liquidity and Bolsters Balance Sheets
27 Mar 2015 Corporates Moody's B3 Negative and Lower Corporate Ratings List: Oil & Gas Downgrades Help Push List to a Two-Year Peak
25 Mar 2015 Structured Finance EMEA ABS SME: Sharp Oil Price Decline Will Mildly Support European SME ABS
19 Mar 2015 Corporates SGL Monitor: Spec-Grade Liquidity Continues to Sidestep Oil Woes
19 Mar 2015 US Public Finance US Higher Education: Lower Oil Prices Will Most Affect Colleges in Nine States
16 Mar 2015 Corporates North American Exploration and Production: E&P Capital Budgets Cut in 2015 To Preserve Liquidity
16 Mar 2015 Sovereign Canada, Government of: Resilience to Oil Price Volatility Supported by Diversified Economy and Federal Revenue Sources
12 Mar 2015 Structured Finance Asset-Backed Securitizations: Low Oil Prices Are Credit Positive for Most ABS Sectors
11 Mar 2015 US Public Finance US Housing Finance Agencies: Lower Oil Price a Positive for State HFAs and Housing Projects
10 Mar 2015 Infrastructure & Project Finance North American and European Airports: Oil Drop Helps Most Airports But Exposes Ones Tied to Oil Industry
10 Mar 2015 Sovereigns Sovereign Outlook – MENA: Oil price shock is driving diverging trends in sovereign creditworthiness
10 Mar 2015 Sovereigns Global Oil Price Shock: Challenges for Oil-Exporting Sovereigns, Breathing Space for Importers
09 Mar 2015 Corporates Impact of Oil Price Decline on Japanese Non-Financial Corporates (Presentation)
04 Mar 2015 Corporates Oilfield Services - China: Oil Price Plunge Will Slow Revenue Growth and Pressure Margins of Chinese Oilfield Services Companies
04 Mar 2015 Banking GCC Banks: Oman and Bahrain Most Vulnerable to Lower Oil Prices
03 Mar 2015 Corporates Global Integrated Oil Companies: Oil Majors Take Steps to Withstand Crude Price Plunge
02 Mar 2015 Corporates North American Railroads: Freight Growth Resilient Despite Slowing Crude Oil Shipments
27 Feb 2015 Corporates Asian Oil & Gas Compendium: Credit Impact of Lower Oil Prices
24 Feb 2015 Structured Finance EMEA ABS SME: Weak Euro and Low Oil Price Will Fuel Continued Tourism Growth, Boosting Spanish SME Transaction Performance
24 Feb 2015 Corporates US Public Finance: Low Oil Prices Hit a Few US Municipal Sectors Hard, but Most Face Mildly Positive Effects
23 Feb 2015 Corporates Asia Oil & Gas Industry: Most Asian Oil & Gas Companies Remain Well-Positioned In Lower Oil Price Environment
19 Feb 2015 Corporates Japanese Non-Financial Corporates: Shipping Companies to See Profitability Boost from Weak Oil Prices; Oil and Gas Sector's Profits Will Be Pressured
19 Feb 2015 Corporates Australian Non-Financial Corporates: Low Oil Price Will Lift Airline Profitability; Pressure Oil and Gas Producers
19 Feb 2015 Banking Most US Banks Have Limited Asset Quality Risk from Low Oil Prices
19 Feb 2015 Banking Canadian Banks' Profitability Vulnerable to Prolonged Oil Price Slump
18 Feb 2015 Financial Institutions Global Banking - Impact of Lower Oil Prices: Lower Oil Prices Pose No Imminent Threat to Bank Creditworthiness
12 Feb 2015 Credit Policy Credit Policy: Economic activity in the aftermath of commodity price falls
12 Feb 2015 Sovereign Australia: Lower Oil Prices Will Have Limited Impact on Sovereign and Sub-Sovereign Credit Profiles
12 Feb 2015 Corporates Low Oil Prices Promise Only Modest Benefits Overall in Latin America
11 Feb 2015 Credit Policy Global Macro Outlook 2015-16: Lower oil price fails to spur global growth
11 Feb 2015 Financial Institutions US Life Insurance: US Life Insurers’ Investment Exposure to Energy Sector is Modest Relative to Capital
09 Feb 2015 Finance US REITs: Swift Decline in Energy Prices Poses Moderate Risk for REITs with Houston Exposure
09 Feb 2015 Sovereign Egypt: Lower oil prices provide some support to sovereign's credit profile,
09 Feb 2015 US Public Finance Texas: Tough State and Local Government Budget Decisions Ahead as Oil Sector Slows
04 Feb 2015 Sovereign Presentation on credit impact of lower oil prices on Asian sovs
03 Feb 2015 Infrastructure & Project Finance EMEA and US Toll Roads: Low Oil Prices Are Credit Positive for European and US Toll Roads, But Impact Muted by Weak Economy
03 Feb 2015 Corporates Chinese National Oil Companies: Credit Quality of Chinese National Oil Companies Is Resilient to Oil Price Decline
29 Jan 2015 Corporates Tumbling Oil Prices Hint at Shifting Fortunes Beyond the Broad Energy Sector
26 Jan 2015 Structured Finance US RMBS: Exposure to Oil Price-Sensitive Houston Property Market Presents Modest Risk to Single-Family Rental Securitizations
22 Jan 2015 Infrastructure & Project Finance Low Oil Prices Won’t Provide Material Near-Term Uplift to Puerto Rico or PREPA, But May Help Longer Term
20 Jan 2015 Structured Finance Proposed Tank Car Safety Requirements, Coupled with Dropping Oil prices, Are Credit Negative for Railcar AMBS
19 Jan 2015 Corporates Global Airline Industry: Lower Fuel Costs to Boost Operating Profit Margins; Yield Growth Still Constrained
19 Jan 2015 Corporates Asia Oil & Gas Quarterly
15 Jan 2015 Sovereign Mexico, Government of: Moderate sovereign credit impact of low oil prices means A3 rating still consistent – even if oil projects are delayed
12 Jan 2015 Sub-Sovereign Alberta, Canada's Deficits Will Grow with Slumping Oil Price
08 Jan 2015 Sovereign Indonesia's Fuel Subsidy Reforms Are Credit Positive
08 Jan 2015 Corporates US Building Materials Industry: Decline in Oil Prices Puts 2015 Earnings at Risk for Proppant Companies
08 Jan 2015 Corporates Moody's High-Yield Covenant Database: Plunge in Oil Prices Raises Risk of Liens Subordination in Oil & Gas Bonds
08 Jan 2015 Corporates Exploration and Production (E&P): Upstream MLPs seek to protect credit quality with steep cuts in distributions
06 Jan 2015 Corporates Global Oil and Gas Industry: Lower Oil Prices in 2015 Reduce E&P Spending and Raise Risk for OFS Sector
18 Dec 2014 Structured Finance CLOs - Global: Steep Drop in Oil Prices Has Limited Direct Impact on CLOs Because of Small Oil and Gas Exposures
10 Dec 2014 Corporates Russian Integrated Oil Companies: Tax Reforms, Rouble Depreciation Help Mitigate Lower Crude Oil Prices
09 Dec 2014 Sovereign Global Oil Price Volatility: Oil-Exporting Sovereigns with Limited Policy Tools Are Most Exposed
08 Dec 2014 Sovereign GCC Sovereigns: Resilience to Lower Oil Prices Varies; Bahrain and Oman Most Exposed
04 Dec 2014 US Public Finance Williston, North Dakota: Growing Pains: Oil Boom's Costs Outweigh Benefits
25 Nov 2014 Corporates Global Oilfield Services and Drilling: Lower Oil Prices in 2015 Will Strain Oilfield Services Companies Globally
25 Nov 2014 Corporates Global Independent Exploration and Production: Oil Price Decline Dampens E&P Company Growth Prospects
25 Nov 2014 Corporates Outlook Update: Global Integrated Oil & Gas Industry: Stable Outlook as Lower Oil Prices Will Dampen Earnings Growth in 2015
21 Nov 2014 Sovereign Norway, Government of: Lower Oil Prices Will Slow Growth and Reduce Transfers into Pension Fund, But Credit Impact Is Not Significant
17 Nov 2014 Sub-Sovereign Canada: Falling Crude Oil Prices Are Credit Negative For Resource-Rich Canadian Provinces:
30 Oct 2014 Infrastructure Toll Roads Benefit from Falling Gasoline Prices
27 Oct 2014 US Public Finance Low Oil Prices Will Pressure States Reliant on Extraction Taxesces
20 Oct 2014 Sovereign India, Government of: Reform of fuel subsidy program amid fall in global oil prices is credit positive
06 Oct 2014 US Public Finance Alaska and North Dakota: Peer Comparison
22 Sep 2014 Infrastructure Falling Oil Price Is Credit Negative For Some European Utilities
Related Information
More Oil and Gas research

More Infrastructure research

More Sovereign research

2015 Global Outlooks

Moody’s Analytics Research
Economy.com topic: Oil Watch

Capital Markets Research Group

Key Contacts

John Forrey
Managing Director
John.Forrey@moodys.com

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