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Sovereign Default Research



 

The recent increase in debt levels among advanced industrial countries due to the global financial crisis is concerning to sovereign investors and observers. This page provides a centralized source for Moody’s research related to sovereign defaults. Our research combines empirical analysis of historical sovereign default and recovery rates with “bottom-up” case study approach to provide a unique perspective on issues such as the causes of sovereign defaults, government interference during crises, the features of sovereign debt restructurings, losses experienced by investors and the aftermath of sovereign defaults. Our analysis scrutinizes the historical record and draws out insights for the current debt crisis.

   
Research 
Publication Date Document Type

 Title

05 Sep 2014 Special Comment ICMA's New Pari Passu Clause and Revised CACs Weaken the Position of Holdout Creditors
23 Jun 2014 Issuer Comment US Supreme Court Ruling Makes Recovery on Defaulted Sovereign Debt Easier
23 Jun 2014 Sector Comment IMF Sovereign Debt Restructuring Proposals Are Credit Negative
19 Jun 2014 Issuer Comment Argentina Proposal to Ignore a US Supreme Court Ruling Raises the Risk of Missing Debt Payments
21 May 2014 Special Comment Sovereign Defaults Series: Elevated Risk of Sovereign Default Accompanies Country Break-Ups
11 Apr 2014 Special Comment Sovereign Default and Recovery Rates, 1983-2013
11 Apr 2014 Excel File Sovereign Default and Recovery Rates, 1983-2013 - Excel Data Supplement
03 Mar 2014 Special Comment Impact of Court Ruling on Argentina's Debt on Future Sovereign Debt Restructurings Is Likely Limited
29 Jan 2014 Presentation Sovereign Debt Restructurings: Historical Evidence and Implications
29 Jan 2014 Special Comment Sovereign Defaults Series: The Aftermath of Sovereign Defaults
23 Oct 2013 Presentation Sovereign Defaults and Restructurings
08 Oct 2013 Presentation Market Re-access, IMF Program Participation and Sovereign Credit Challenges: Outlook on Ireland and Portugal
07 Oct 2013 Special Comment Market Re-Access and Credit Standing After Sovereign Default
07 Oct 2013 Special Comment Sovereign Defaults Series Compendium: The Aftermath of Sovereign Defaults
13 Aug 2013 Special Comment IMF Program Participation Underscores Medium-Term Sovereign Credit Challenges
20 Jun 2013 Sovereign Monitor Moody's Sovereign Monitor – Focus on Sovereign Defaults
12 Jun 2013 Special Comment Sovereign Default and Recovery Rates, 1983-2012
12 Jun 2013 Excel File Sovereign Default and Recovery Rates, 1983-2012 - Excel Data Supplement
03 Jun 2013 Sector Comment IMF Debt Restructuring Proposals Are Credit Negative for Distressed Sovereign Bondholders
26 Apr 2013 Special Comment Moody's Default Definition and its Application to Sovereign Debt
10 Apr 2013 Special Comment The Role of Holdout Creditors and CACs in Sovereign Debt Restructurings
06 Dec 2012 Special Comment US Court Ruling on Argentina’s Debt Could Have Limited Implications for Sovereign Debt Restructurings
13 Nov 2012 Special Comment Sovereign Debt Restructurings Provide Liquidity Relief But Often Do Not Reduce Debt Levels
13 Sep 2012 Special Comment Default and Recovery Rates for Regional and Local Governments outside the U.S., 1983-2011
07 Aug 2012 Special Comment Investor Losses in Modern-Era Sovereign Bond Restructurings
30 Jul 2012 Special Comment Sovereign Default and Recovery Rates, 1983-2012H1
15 Aug 2011 Sector Comment Moody’s Sovereign Ratings Accurately Rank Default Risk
30 Jun 2011 Special Comment Moody's Default Definition and its Application to Sovereign Debt
10 May 2011 Special Comment Sovereign Default and Recovery Rates, 1983-2010
02 Nov 2010 Special Comment The Causes of Sovereign Defaults: Ability to Manage Crises Not Merely Determined by Debt Levels
01 Apr 2010 Special Comment Sovereign Default and Recovery Rates, 1983-2009
01 Mar 2009 Special Comment Sovereign Default and Recovery Rates, 1983-2008
01 Aug 2008 Special Comment Sovereign Defaults and Interference: Perspectives on Government Risks
01 Mar 2008 Special Comment Sovereign Default and Recovery Rates, 1983-2007
01 Jun 2007 Special Comment Sovereign Default and Recovery Rates, 1983-2006
01 Apr 2006 Special Comment Default and Recovery Rates of Sovereign Bond Issuers, 1983-2005
Related Information
Sovereign & Supranational

Sovereign Country Credit Statistical Handbook

Global Macro-Economic and Financial Risk Analysis

How Moody’s Rates Sovereigns


Key Contacts
Bart Oosterveld
Managing Director
Bart.Oosterveld@moodys.com

Elena Duggar
Group Credit Officer
Elena.Duggar@moodys.com

Merxe Tudela
Vice President-Senior Analyst
Maria.Tudelacarreres@moodys.com

  
 
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