The Big Picture
From the uneven economic recovery to the acceleration of digitization and rising focus on social trends amid COVID-19, several key themes are shaping global credit conditions. We assess the impact on countries, regions and sectors.
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    Digital Transformation
    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    14 Sep 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    As the world increasingly turns digital, competitive challenges to financial institutions are growing. We identify four main forces that could dislodge banks from their dominant roles as financial intermediaries. They are Big Tech, pureplay fintechs, “stateless” finance and central bank digital currencies.
    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    19 Aug 2021|Moody's Investors Service

    The People’s Bank of China is testing a digital version of the renminbi. If adopted on a widespread basis, the e-CNY, as it would be called, has the potential to strengthen banks' role in the e-payment system while also increasing competition for technology companies.


    PODCAST
    22 Sep 2021|Moody's Investors Service

    Stephen Tu, Melina Skouridou and Farooq Khan explain how four forces reshaping finance will likely reduce banks’ revenue from core activities and undermine their role as financial intermediaries. Plus, Alka Anbarasu explains why India’s banks will weather the stress from a COVID-19 resurgence, and Jasper Cooper gives an update on insured hurricane losses in the US.

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    Uneven Recovery
    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    23 Sep 2021|Moody's Investors Service

    High-frequency alternative data and official retail sales data across G-20 economies indicate that household consumption is slowing from the strong growth earlier this year. Consumer retail and recreation mobility has deteriorated in many economies, and workplace visits and public transit usage remain below pre-pandemic levels. These trends and the coronavirus’s resurgence point to lingering risks to global economic recovery.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    14 Sep 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    A monthly monitor of financial and economic conditions in emerging markets, analyzed through our Emerging Markets Financial Conditions Indicator (EM FCI), points to deteriorating financial conditions and rising food and fuel inflation across most emerging markets.

    Podcast
    15 Sep 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Madhavi Bokil of the Credit Strategy & Research team discusses inflation and financial stability risks in emerging markets. Plus, Nitish Bhojnagarwala and Ashraf Madani of the Financial Institutions team talk about the outlook for Islamic finance.​
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    Social Trends
    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    22 Jul 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    The pandemic’s uneven effects on European labour markets and savings will influence consumer spending patterns, the availability of credit to individuals and the direction of government regulation throughout the region.
    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    28 Jun 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    An analysis of the more than 8,700 private-sector rating action announcements that we published in 2020 shows that 85% included references to environmental, social and governance (ESG) considerations, up from 32% in 2019. The increase reflects the effects of COVID-19 on already fast-growing social risks, evolving regulatory environments, climate change and policy measures to mitigate these risks.

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    PODCAST
    19 May 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Vanessa Robert and Marina Cremonese of the Funds and Asset Management team discuss new money market fund regulations proposed in the US and EU after a material flight to quality shook short-term credit markets last year. Plus, Svetlana Pavolva of the Banking team explains the significant social risks facing banks in Commonwealth of Independent States countries.
    Environmental Impact
    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    15 Sep 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Water management risks tied to supply and quality issues, as well as risks amplified by climate change, are creating credit challenges across Asia. Sectors such as mining, agriculture, textiles, semiconductors, and hydroelectric and thermal power depend on good water management. For sovereigns, water stress and poor sanitation can weaken the growth outlook, add to fiscal costs and increase social tensions.
    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    09 Sep 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    There are significant differences in net-zero approaches across China, the EU and the US. Each region comes from a very different starting point, driven by its economic structures, level of development and policy choices.

    PODCAST
    02 Jun 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Alberto Postigo and Alka Anbarasu discuss the threat of climate change to banks’ asset quality. Plus, Megan Fox and Steve Tu talk about the effects on banks and asset managers of the Biden administration’s new executive order on climate-related financial risk, and Sid Ghosh tells us whether businesses around the world can get insurance coverage for disrupted operations during the pandemic.
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    Policy Challenges
    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    09 Sep 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    There are significant differences in net-zero approaches across China, the EU and the US. Each region comes from a very different starting point, driven by its economic structures, level of development and policy choices.
    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    11 Aug 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    The $1 trillion infrastructure package that the US Senate passed on 10 August, if signed into law, would be credit positive for state and local governments, electric utilities and power companies, and for a range of companies in other infrastructure-related sectors. The bill's increased spending would support the post-COVID-19 economic expansion and modestly boost long-term growth prospects, with limited effects on the sovereign's fiscal dynamics. 

    Podcast
    29 Apr 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Rebecca Karnovitz of the Credit Strategy & Research team and William Foster of the Sovereign team join host Robard Williams to discuss the implications of the Biden administration’s economic, social and environmental policies on the credit environment for public and private-sector debt issuers. ​​
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    Rising Debt Burdens
    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    07 Jun 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Global debt rose by $32 trillion in 2020 and will continue to climb this year. The COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath will challenge debt-servicing capacity in emerging markets. Advanced economies have more fiscal space, but will encounter debt sustainability challenges related to productivity and demographics.
    PODCAST
    20 Apr 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Laura Perez-Martinez of the Credit Strategy & Research team and research writer Richard Barley discuss the growing number of distressed companies throughout Europe and what this trend means for the region’s economy, the effects on the wider corporate landscape and for other sectors.​ Read Report

    VIDEO
    VIDEO
    05 Mar 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Marie Diron of the Sovereign team discusses our launch of scores measuring exposure to and credit effect from environmental, social and governance factors. She highlights that, while exposure to environmental and especially social risk often combines with weak governance and limited financial capacity to have an overall negative credit effect on sovereigns, circumstances vary widely.