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  • 穆迪 – 中诚信国际2019年信用展望会议(深圳,2018年12月11日)Moody’s & CCXI 2019 China Credit Outlook Conference (Shenzhen, 11 Dec 2018)

  • Tuesday, 11-Dec-2018 - Tuesday, 11-Dec-2018
  • 9:00AM - 5:00PM
  • Shenzhen, CHINA
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09:00 欢迎致辞

叶敏,穆迪董事总经理/亚太区主管 (北京, 上海)
周浩,中诚信国际总裁(北京)
何敏华,中诚信国际执行副总裁,中诚信证评总裁(上海)
史季,穆迪董事总经理/中国地区主管(深圳)
闫衍,中诚信国际董事长,中国人民大学经济研究所副所长(深圳)

上午会议主持人: 史季, 穆迪董事总经理/中国地区主管

 

09:15 主旨演讲

 金融危机十年:中国应对的得失与反思 
宏观政策在稳增长与防风险之间动态调整
经济底部徘徊,内外多重挑战并存
金融危机十年,中国经济政策再调整
毛振华,中诚信集团创始人,中国人民大学经济研究所所长(上海, 深圳)

 中国宏观政策再调整:稳增长与稳杠杆并重 
中国经济下行压力凸显,政策再调整应对经济再度探底
政策再次调整:宽松需循序渐进,稳增长与稳杠杆并重
2019年信用趋势:信用风险先扬后抑,结构性风险仍存
闫衍,中诚信国际董事长,中国人民大学经济研究所副所长(北京) 

 

10:00 主旨演讲

挑战增大,中国经济与主权信用的抗压性如何? 
随着增速放缓,中国是否继续去杠杆降风险?
贸易紧张局势将如何影响国内政策制定,并带来何种信用影响?
系统层面和地方层面的金融行业脆弱度是怎样的?
Martin PETCH, 穆迪主权风险部副总裁 – 高级信用评级主任(北京,上海) 
李秀军,穆迪信用策略与标准部副总裁 - 高级分析师(北京,上海)
徐晶,穆迪信用策略与标准部分析师(深圳) 

 

10:45 茶歇


11:05 主旨演讲

中国银行业信贷类资产风险抵御能力解析 
银行业信贷类资产风险状况几何
当前银行业是否具有充足的信贷类风险抵御能力
白岩,中诚信国际金融机构一部总经理(北京、上海) 
温宇琪,中诚信国际金融机构一部总经理助理(深圳) 

融资租赁谋求产业升级,行业分化加剧 
行业持续升级,相关规范和改进政策持续完善;
行业探讨回归“融物”本质
薛天宇,中诚信国际金融机构二部总经理 

 

11:40 主旨演讲

中国金融业在多变环境下之转型与挑战 
银行业信用状况的关键特征、主要下行风险及应对措施、长期变革的趋势如何?
加强监管是否有助于非银行金融机构应对经营环境的挑战?
严监管下中国保险行业的转型与挑战何在?

严溢敏 ,穆迪亚洲金融机构部副董事总经理(北京) 
诸蜀宁 ,穆迪金融机构部副总裁 / 高级分析师 (北京) 
万颖 ,穆迪金融机构部助理副总裁 / 分析师 (上海) 
香镇伟 ,穆迪金融机构部高级副总裁(深圳)
郭嘉铭,穆迪金融机构部分析师(深圳)

 

12:10 午餐

下午会议主持人:
周浩,中诚信国际总裁(北京) 
秦媛,中诚信证评常务副总裁(上海) 
杨蕾,中诚信国际副总裁(深圳) 


13:10 圆桌讨论

2019年境内外市场的违约趋势
2018年违约案例的启示– 风险特征、投资者保障机制、境内外互动
2019年重点行业境内外信用风险展望
政策对民企的支持能否提振投资者的避险情绪
如发行人出现偿付压力,境内外投资者谁更有利
境内融资环境改善,境内市场融资能否被用来偿付境外债券
主持人: 
毛麒璟,中诚信国际董事总经理、企业评级总监(北京) 
钟汶权,穆迪大中华区信用研究分析主管/副董事总经理(上海) 
王雅方,中诚信国际董事总经理、企业评级总监(深圳) 
  
发言人:
曾启贤,  穆迪企业融资部高级副总裁
钟汶权,穆迪大中华区信用研究分析主管/副董事总经理(北京) 
杨傲镝,中诚信国际企业融资评级二部副总经理(北京) 
史曼,中诚信国际企业融资评级一部总监助理 (北京) 
伍力澜,中诚信证评董事总经理、公司评级部评级总监(上海) 
龚天璇,中诚信证评董事总经理、非标评级部评级总监(上海) 
萧一芝,穆迪大中华区信用研究分析部副总裁 - 高级分析师(上海) 
刘洋,企业融资评级一部总经理、评级技术与质量管理部总经理(深圳) 
李俊彦,中诚信国际企业融资评级二部总监助理 (深圳) 
董庆雯, 穆迪大中华区信用研究分析副总裁 - 高级信用评级主任(深圳)

 

14:10 圆桌讨论

再看资产证券化产品的风险逻辑与发展方向 
银行间信贷资产证券化发展有何新特点
如何看待信贷资产证券化信用特征的新变化
主持人: 
孔令强,中诚信国际执行副总裁(北京、深圳) 
郑志杰,穆迪结构融资部高级副总裁 (上海) 

发言人: 
周洁,穆迪结构融资部副总裁/高级分析师(北京、上海) 
邓大为,中诚信证评董事总经理(北京) 
王晓宇,中诚信国际结构融资部评级副总监(北京) 
马延辉,中诚信证评结构融资一部总经理(上海) 
田野,中诚信国际结构融资部高级分析师、项目经理(上海)
汪波,交银施罗德资产管理有限公司创新产品部总经理(上海)
张璐,中国国际金融股份有限公司投资银行部高级经理(上海) 
伍于宁 ,穆迪结构融资部副总裁 / 高级分析师(深圳) 
王立,中诚信国际结构融资部总经理(深圳) 
张逸楠,中诚信证评结构融资二部总经理(深圳)

 

15:10 茶歇


15:30 主旨演讲

政策博弈与信用重整:基础设施投融资行业信用风险新趋势 
监管政策针对整个行业融资需求出现阶段性调整
维持行业风险总体可控,未来政策博弈不可避免
转型及变革面临新困境
外部支持演化与自身信用重整的多重共线性特征将更加明显
王娟,中诚信国际董事总经理、政府与公共评级总监(北京) 
王钧,中诚信证评董事总经理、公共融资部评级总监(上海) 
吕修磊,中诚信国际政府融资评级部总经理(深圳)

 

16:10 圆桌讨论

从地方融资平台公司融资转为地方政府直接举债:继续推进还是搁置? 
转变是否顺利?
地方政府直接举债是否会导致债务激增?
如平台公司有大量收入和盈利来自公用事业,此类企业应视为公用事业企业还是平台公司?
2019年基建投资有望回升,平台公司会否需要参与更多基建融资功能?
主持人: 
钟汶权,穆迪大中华区信用研究分析主管/副董事总经理 (北京、上海) 
史季, 穆迪董事总经理/中国地区主管 (深圳) 
  
发言人: 
杜宁轶,穆迪公共融资、项目及基建融资部副总裁/高级分析师 
李炜乐,穆迪项目与基建融资部副总裁 – 高级分析师
杨柳,穆迪企业融资部副总裁 - 高级分析师 (北京)
胡凯,穆迪企业融资部高级副总裁 (上海) 
刘玉婷,穆迪企业融资部助理副总裁 – 分析师 (深圳)

 

16:50 闭幕致辞

每节演讲后均有问答环节 

登记 
因场地有限,早餐会与研讨会需提前登记 。 
请点击以下链接登记参加早餐会或研讨会(本次活动无需付费)

 

Main Conference

 

09:00 Welcome Remarks

Min YE, Managing Director and Head of Moody’s Asia Pacific (Beijing, Shanghai)
Hao ZHOU, President, CCXI (Beijing)
Minhua HE, Executive VP, CCXI, President, CCXR (Shanghai)
Jenny SHI, Managing Director - Country Manager China (Shenzhen) 
Yan YAN, Chairman, CCXI, Deputy-Dean of Institute of Economic Research of Renmin University of China (Shenzhen) 

MC for morning session: Jenny SHI, MD - Country Manager China

 

09:15 Keynote presentation

How did China gain or lose from its responses to the global financial crisis? 
Macroeconomic policy -- balancing growth stabilization and risk prevention
Economy faces multiple internal and external challenges
China’s economic policy readjustment ten years post the financial crisis 
Zhenhua MAO, Founder, CCX, Co-Dean of Institute of Economic Research of Renmin University of China (Shanghai & Shenzhen) 

China’s macroeconomic policy readjustment: A balance between stabilizing growth and deleveraging 
China's economy faces downward pressures, while policy is being refined before the economy bottoms
Policy is being refined and loosened in a gradual manner: emphasizing both growth and deleveraging
Credit trends for 2019: Credit risks may arise but manageable, while structural risks remain
Yan YAN, Chairman, CCXI, Deputy-Dean of Institute of Economic Research of Renmin University of China (Beijing)

 

10:00 Keynote Presentation
China’s Economy and Sovereign: How resilient to mounting challenges? 
Will China continue deleveraging and derisking?
How will trade tensions affect domestic policy and credit outcomes?
How vulnerable is the financial sector, both system-wide and at a local level?
Martin PETCH, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's (Beijing, Shanghai) 
Lillian LI, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Credit Strategy and Standards, Moody's (Beijing, Shanghai)
George Xu, Analyst, Credit Strategy and Standards, Moody's (Shenzhen)

 

10:45 Tea Break


11:05 Keynote Presentation

Risk tolerance of credit assets of China's banking sector 
What is the risk profile for the sector’s credit assets?
Does the banking sector have adequate resistance to credit risk?
Joanne BAI, General Manager, Financial Institution Rating Dept. Division 1, CCXI (Beijing, Shanghai) 
Yuqi WEN, Assistant General Manager, Financial Institution Rating Dept. Division 1, CCXI (Shenzhen) 

Differentiation in the financial leasing industry intensifies 
Industry’s development continues, while regulation and policy improve further
Industry explores prospect of going back to "asset financing"
Alex XUE, General Manager, Financial Institution Rating Dept., Division 2, CCXI


 1:40 Keynote Presentation

Transformation and challenges of China's financial industry 
What are the key credit features of the banking industry and long-term trends?
Will regulatory strengthening help non-bank financial institutions adapt to changing operating environment?
What transformations is China’s insurance industry undertaking amid regulatory tightening?
Sally YIM, Associate Managing Director, Financial Institutions Group, Moody’s (Beijing) 
Nicholas ZHU, Vice President – Senior Analyst,  Financial Institutions Group, Moody's (Beijing) 
Yulia WAN, Assistant Vice President – Analyst,  Financial Institutions Group, Moody's (Shanghai) 
Ray HEUNG, Senior Vice President, Financial Institutions Group, Moody's (Shenzhen) 
Kelvin KWOK, Analyst, , Financial Institutions Group, Moody's (Shenzhen) 

 

12:10 Lunch

MC for Afternoon Session: 
Hao ZHOU, President, CCXI (Beijing) 
Yuan QIN,   Executive VP, CCXR (Shanghai) 
Lei YANG, VP, CCXI (Shenzhen) 

 

13:10 Panel Discussion

Default trends for onshore and offshore credit markets in 2019 
Implications of default cases in 2018
Credit risk outlook for specific sectors in 2019
Can policy support for POEs boost risk aversion among investors?
Moderator: 
Qijing MAO, Managing Director, CCXI and Corporate Rating Director (Beijing) 
Ivan CHUNG, Associate Managing Director, Head of Greater China Credit and Research Analysis, Moody’s (Shanghai) 
Grace WANG, Managing Director, CCXI and Corporate Rating Director (Shenzhen) 
Speakers:
Kaven Tsang, Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s 
Ivan CHUNG, Associate Managing Director, Head of Greater China Credit and Research Analysis, Moody’s (Beijing) 
Aodi YANG, Associate General Manager, Corporate Finance Rating Dept., Division 2, CCXI (Beijing) 
Man SHI, Director Assistant, Corporate Finance Rating Dept., Division 1, CCXI (Beijing) 
Lilan WU, Managing Director, CCXR and Corporate Rating Director (Shanghai) 
Tianxuan GONG, Managing Director, CCXR and Non-standard Rating Director (Shanghai) 
Nino SIU, Vice President - Senior Analyst, Greater China Credit Research and Analysis, Moody’s (Shanghai) 
Yang LIU, General Manager, Corporate Finance Rating Dept., Division 1, and General Manager, Rating Technology and Quality Management Dept., CCXI (Shenzhen) 
Junyan LI, Director Assistant, Corporate Finance Rating Dept., Division 2, CCXI (Shenzhen) 
Jessie TUNG, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Greater China Credit Research and Analysis, Moody's (Shenzhen) 

 

14:10 Panel Discussion

Review of risk and development trends for asset securitization products 
What are the new features of interbank credit asset securitization?
What are the latest characteristics of credit asset securitization?
Moderator:
Lingqiang KONG, Executive Vice President, CCXI (Beijing, Shenzhen) 
Jerome CHENG, Senior Vice President, Structured Finance Group, Moody’s (Shanghai) 
  
Speakers: 
Gracie ZHOU, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Structured Finance Group, Moody’s (Beijing, Shanghai) 
David DENG, General Manager of Structured Finance, CCXR (Beijing) 
Xiaoyu WANG, Associate Managing Director, Structured Finance Dept., CCXI (Beijing) 
Yanhui MA, General Manager, Structured Finance Dept. Division 1, CCXR (Shanghai) 
Ye TIAN, Senior Analyst/Project Manager, Structured Finance Dept., CCXI (Shanghai)
Bo WANG, Deputy Manager, Bank of communications Schroder Asset Management Company (Shanghai)
Lu ZHANG, Senior Manager, Investment bank, CICC (Shanghai)
Elaine NG, Vice President - Senior Analyst, Structured Finance Group (Shenzhen) 
Lily WANG, General Manager, Structured Finance Dept., CCXI (Shenzhen) 
Yinan ZHANG, General Manager, Structured Finance Dept. Division 2, CCXR (Shenzhen) 

 

15:10 Tea Break

15:30 Keynote Presentation

New trends in credit risk for infrastructure investment and financing 
Regulatory policies see staged adjustments
Industry-related risks remain under control
Transformation and reform face new difficulties
Evolving external support and new trends in credit risk become more apparent
Juan WANG, Managing Director, Public Finance Rating Dept., CCXI (Beijing) 
Jun WANG, Managing Director, Director of Public Financing Dept., CCXR  (Shanghai) 
Xiulei LV, General Manager, Government Finance Rating Dept., CCXI (Shenzhen) 

 

16:10 Panel Discussion

Transition from LGFV financing to RLG bond financing: On track or on hold? 
How effective is the transition?
Will RLG direct debt increase substantially?
Should LGFVs with significant revenues/earnings from utilities be seen as utilities issuers?
Infrastructure investment will rebound in 2019, but will LGFVs return to former roles?
Moderator: 
Ivan CHUNG, Associate Managing Director, Head of Greater China Credit and Research Analysis, Moody’s (Beijing, Shanghai) 
Jenny SHI, MD - Country Manager China (Shenzhen) 

Speakers: 
Amanda DU , Vice President – Senior Analyst, Public, Project and Infrastructure Finance Group, Moody’s 
Ada LI, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Project and Infrastructure Finance Group, Moody’s
Cindy YANG, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s (Beijing)
Kai HU, Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s (Shanghai) 
Yuting LIU, Assistant Vice President - Analyst, Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s (Shenzhen) 

 

16:50 Closing remarks

Q&A session will follow each presentation.

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