2021 Outlooks
Moody's 2021 Outlooks provide forward-looking insight into the trends shaping global credit markets. From uneven recovery to social trends, our analysts explore the key themes underpinning sectors and regions in the year ahead.
  • SUMMARY
  • REPORTS
  • Podcast & Video Archive
  • WEBINARS

  • OUTLOOK
    30 Nov 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Moderate and uneven economic recoveries in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic as well as political and trade uncertainties pose risks for financial institutions in emerging markets in 2021. 

    23 Nov 2020
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    OUTLOOK
    25 Nov 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    The path to recovery in passenger traffic volumes remains very uncertain, following the sharp coronavirus-induced decline. This will continue to weigh on sector business conditions in 2021. 
    OUTLOOK
    17 Nov 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Transit systems face continued financial stress and operating challenges caused by historically low ridership, weak tax revenue and restrained government funding. Ridership will grow in 2021 but remain well below levels necessary to balance budgets and generate strong political and public support for increased state and local subsidies.

    18 Nov 2020
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    OUTLOOK
    16 Nov 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    While we expect a bounce in headline GDP growth, emerging market credit conditions will remain fragile and vulnerable to setbacks. Several important factors, including the ability to restore revenue and earnings and adapt to emerging opportunities and threats, will shape performance across regions, sectors and asset classes.
    PODCAST
    16 Nov 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Analysts Sarah Carlson, Eugene Tarzimanov and Carolina Chimenti discuss the 2021 credit outlook for sovereigns, banks and companies across emerging market countries. The wide-ranging effects of the coronavirus will continue to be a dominant credit theme, along with still-weak tourism prospects, low oil prices and the rollback of forbearance and fiscal support in a number of countries.​​

    PODCAST
    12 Nov 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Atsi Sheth from the Credit Strategy team and Yves Lemay from the Sovereign Risk Group discuss the outlook for the global economy and sovereign credit in 2021 in light of the seismic financial shock caused by the coronavirus pandemic. They also outline the differing outlooks and credit risks faced by three key economies: the US, China and the UK.
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    OUTLOOK
    12 Nov 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    A tentative economic recovery is underway but the path is beset by uncertainty. Effective pandemic management, the development and distribution of a coronavirus vaccine, and the continuation of government policy support to households and businesses will determine the economic trajectory over the coming year.

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    OUTLOOK
    09 Nov 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Global credit conditions will improve overall in 2021, aided by unprecedented COVID-19-related fiscal and monetary policy support. However, the initial rapid economic rebound is giving way to a patchier, more tenuous recovery as the pandemic proves hard to contain. Six key themes will shape the credit environment in the year ahead: Uneven recovery, policy challenges, rising debt burdens, digital transformation, environmental impact and social trends.
    PODCAST
    09 Nov 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Anne Van Praagh and Michael Taylor of the Credit Strategy & Research team discuss six key trends that will affect the credit landscape as the world deals with the coronavirus crisis. These include an uneven and inconsistent economic recovery, sharply higher corporate and sovereign debt loads and numerous policy challenges for governments as they grapple with the economic and social consequences of the pandemic.

    OUTLOOK
    10 Nov 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    The widespread fallout from the pandemic and measures to contain it have created an economic, fiscal and social shock for sovereigns in 2021 and beyond. While weaker sovereigns will be hardest hit in the short term, all sovereigns across the rating spectrum will likely face difficult medium-term policy trade-offs triggered or exacerbated by the crisis.

    OUTLOOK
    10 Nov 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    We expect 2021 to be a year of uneven recovery, with governments and central banks continuing to provide support to economies and liquidity to the financial markets. With such market liquidity, demand for high-yield bonds and leveraged loans in Europe, the Middle East and Africa will likely remain strong.