Political Risks
Domestic policy shifts and geopolitical uncertainty threaten to undermine credit conditions in many countries.
  • SUMMARY
  • REPORTS

  • SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    18 Nov 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    Brexit has been a catalyst for the UK government's increasing policy inertia, loss of policy predictability and diminished cohesion, all of which are reducing the country’s institutional strength. These conditions are affecting the operating environment for a range of UK government-related entities, banks and other debt issuers.

    VIDEO
    Video
    29 Oct 2019|Moody's Analytics
    Dan White shares Moody’s Analytics projections for Donald Trump’s chances in the upcoming 2020 US Presidential Election. Read full analysis.

    SECTOR COMMENT
    29 Oct 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    On 27 October, opposition candidate Alberto Fernandez beat Argentina's President Mauricio Macri in the presidential election, increasing market uncertainty because the president-elect is perceived as less market friendly than the Macri administration. Argentine banks' funding profile will weaken further following the fallout from the presidential election.

    SECTOR COMMENT
    30 Oct 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    The European Council announced that it was willing to formally postpone the UK's departure date from the European Union until 31 January 2020. The delay prolongs the uncertainty, which will continue to weigh on spending, investment and hiring decisions in the UK for some time and is credit negative for an array of issuers both in the UK and the EU.
    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    22 Oct 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    The UK Parliament’s vote in favor of a Brexit deal indicates a first step towards an orderly exit from the European Union (EU), even if it may not be possible for the UK to leave by the end of October. Under the deal, the UK’s exit would be followed by a transition period with the EU, which would likely bring more Brexit-related uncertainty.

    SECTOR COMMENT
    06 Oct 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    On 30 September, Peru’s President Martin Vizcarra announced that he was dissolving congress and calling for legislative elections to be held on 26 January. The current political crisis is credit negative for Peruvian banks because it will depress economic prospects weakening corporate loan demand, despite banks' resilient credit profiles. 

    ISSUER COMMENT
    19 Sep 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    The formation of a new Israeli government will be protracted given that neither the right-leaning Likud party nor the centrist Blue and White Alliance has won enough seats to form a majority government with their traditional coalition partners. This outcome prolongs Israel's political uncertainty and reform inertia and further delays efforts to address the widening budget deficit.