Changing tides: politics, elections and credit risk
The far-reaching nature of various political shifts under way across the world, has raised the potential for significant changes in policy direction for Middle Eastern sovereigns, the Government of Italy and more.
  • SUMMARY
  • REPORTS
  • The latest on Argentina
    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    12 Sep 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    Argentina's nascent stabilization of economic activity has unraveled in the wake of national primary elections in August. The outcome triggered a severe market reaction, after which the government announced a freeze on
    certain prices, capital controls and the “re-profiling” of sovereign debt. These developments are credit negative for the sovereign, regional and local governments and for most business sectors.
    SECTOR COMMENT
    21 Aug 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    A surprise defeat of the incumbent president in Argentina's primary election on Sunday August 11, roiled local markets amid increased political uncertainty
    SECTOR COMMENT
    13 Aug 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    On 12 August, the Argentine peso tumbled as much as 15% to a record-low 53 per dollar and the Merval stock index lost 38%.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    10 Sep 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    Investment has weakened significantly, alongside worsening housing market and financial conditions. UK growth declined in Q2 2019 and the core inflation rate has stabilised in recent months. In a no-deal Brexit scenario, the UK economy could be permanently smaller than with a trade agreement.

    ISSUER COMMENT
    29 Jul 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    The formation of a centre-left coalition government – if approved – will provide for a period of political stability in Italy, which is positive against a backdrop of weak growth of the domestic economy and uncertain global growth prospects. It should also allow for the timely presentation of the 2020 budget, the key upcoming piece of legislation.