China Growth & Credit
Policy uncertainties around trade, unforeseen events like coronavirus outbreak, as well as long-term structural challenges pose credit risks to China, increasing credit differentiation between domestic regions and sectors.
  • SUMMARY
  • REPORTS

  • SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    23 Nov 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    The coronavirus crisis and global economic downturn have exacerbated underlying credit risks that have built up in recent years across many countries that participate in China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    17 Nov 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    The continued move toward a tripolar economy with the US, China and the EU as its pillars will have credit ramifications for a broad range of industries and countries.

    SECTOR COMMENT
    20 Nov 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    While the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership will be credit positive for all 15 signatory economies, the most externally oriented will experience the largest trade-related output gains.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    17 Nov 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Chinese banks have so far maintained manageable risks on their growing retail loan exposures. However, further strong consumer lending growth will add to banks' unseasoned risks and exposures to property cycles.

    Compilation
    13 Nov 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Continuing investor risk aversion puts pressure on the refinancing of weak companies in H1 2021. Recovering economy and global index-led investments will bolster foreign investment in onshore bond market in 2021.
    Government Policy – China
    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    10 Nov 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    China will focus on the quality of its economic growth - rather than the pace - during the next five years. This focus comes amid US tensions, coronavirus disruptions and deglobalization.
    ISSUER IN-DEPTH
    12 Nov 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    China's total fiscal stimulus is larger than the budget deficit indicates, although in line with other sovereigns.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    27 Oct 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Healthcare reform and COVID-19 will accelerate the shift to new health insurance business models to manage related risks, with wide-ranging credit implications. 

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    20 Oct 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    China's slower economic growth, companies' weak liquidity and investors' heightened risk aversion will be the main factors driving onshore and offshore defaults during the coming 12 months. Financially weak private-sector companies are more vulnerable than state-owned companies.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    19 Oct 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Chinese regulators' potential introduction of new measures on raising new debt will control developers' leverage buildup, and accelerate credit differentiation and industry consolidation. 

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    28 Sep 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    The Chinese government's stimulus policies will support infrastructure projects and economic growth, amid the global coronavirus pandemic. 

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    29 Sep 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Banks have maintained a strong flow of longer term credit to corporates, likely reflecting the policy intent of providing support to business and investment. 
    Foundations of credit in China
    ISSUER COMMENT
    17 Sep 2020|Moody's Investors Service
     Rains have been more intense than usual for the time of year, and have caused more damage than on average, partly offset by the authorities' focus on impact mitigation.
    Credit Opinion
    17 Sep 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    The credit profile of China is supported by very high economic and fiscal strength, and low external risk. Large savings and pervasive government support for the economy foster high debt affordability through low financing cost.

    RATING METHODOLOGY
    29 Jul 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    In this rating methodology, we explain our general approach to assessing credit risk for local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) in China, including the qualitative and quantitative factors that are likely to affect rating outcomes in this sector.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    17 Sep 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Onshore issuance is slowing but will exceed record 2019 level; offshore issuance will pick up in next six months with refinancing.
    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    30 Jun 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Zhejiang is an affluent and coastal province in eastern China. LGFVs in Zhejiang will continue to benefit from onshore credit-easing policies in next 12 months. LGFVs owned by prefecture-level cities in Zhejiang province have fairly strong funding capabilities, but credit risk still varies.

    PODCAST
    28 Sep 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Jerome Cheng and Gracie Zhou from the structured finance team discuss China’s newly opened asset-backed commercial paper market, highlighting some key differences with other countries. Read related report >>
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    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    03 Sep 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Revenue growth will recover in 2021, driven by new orders for domestic construction projects. We have revised up our 2020 aggregate revenue growth projection for rated state-owned construction companies - to 8% from 2% previously - and expect growth of around 12% in 2021.

    KEY CONTACTS
    Lillian Li
    VP, Senior Credit Officer
    Lillian.Li@moodys.com