China Growth & Credit
Policy uncertainties around trade, unforeseen events like coronavirus outbreak, as well as long-term structural challenges pose credit risks to China, increasing credit differentiation between domestic regions and sectors.
  • SUMMARY
  • REPORTS

  • Issuer In-Depth
    14 Jun 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    After a promising recovery in China's economic growth in 2021 and early 2022, the spread of coronavirus infections and subsequent restrictions reduced activity significantly in several of the country’s biggest cities. While support measures will prop up growth with limited gains in general government debt, the funding gap for regional and local governments will increase, driving greater dependence on state-owned enterprises and local government financing vehicles for funding.

    Sector In-Depth
    13 Apr 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    LGFVs continue to help RLGs in filling their funding gaps in infrastructure investment. The evolving LGFV business model and government support channels drive further credit differentiation.

    Sector In-Depth
    24 Mar 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    Revenue growth from local governments' land sales will likely remain weak in 2022. Slowing income growth will pressure their fiscal profiles and reduce their capacity to support their LGFVs.

    Moody's Creditview - China
    23 Nov 2021|Moody's Corporation
    The new Moody’s CreditView China provides you with the data transparency and quality you need to confidently assess and globally compare the largest Chinese bond issuers.

    Sector in-depth
    11 Mar 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    China’s ambitious growth target amid rising economic stress and external uncertainty to push up leverage, debt ratio; credit impact relies on growth outturn, effectiveness of implementation.
    Cross-sector
    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    26 Jan 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    Asian high-yield issuance is shrinking as credit quality deteriorates amid China property sector turmoil.
    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    27 Jan 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    We expect national contracted sales to decline 5%-10% in 2022 amid the tightened credit environment. Funding access will stay constrained, leading to higher refinancing risks for the sector. 
    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    27 Jan 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    Solid growth is providing the conditions to address some longstanding issues in China’s economy. We expect public sector leverage will stabilize in 2022 and gradually ease thereafter.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    10 Jan 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    Recent court judgements continue to cast doubt on these arrangements, the effectiveness of which are subject to multiple legal issues as well as their issuance structure.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    14 Dec 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    The decline in shadow banking asset in 2021 reflects regulators’ continued focus on containing systemic risk in the financial sector. The economic leverage ratio will stabilize in 2022 as regulatory controls remain while economic growth slows.

    09 Dec 2021
    China’s growth momentum slowed in H2 2021, weighed down by muted consumer activity, intermittent COVID-related mobility restrictions, power shortages, supply chain backlogs and a slowdown in property construction. Consumption will gradually strengthen once COVID-19 concerns wane and demand for contact-intensive services picks up. Policy responses will drive the near-term growth outlook.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    25 Nov 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    The downturn in China’s property market will slow the country’s GDP growth in 2022, with losses and defaults in the sector also raising credit risk for developers, creditors, banks, regional and local governments, and households. However, the government has the policy tools to limit large-scale spillover risk to the financial system.

    VIDEO
    VIDEO
    17 Nov 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    企业融资部董庆雯认为以下因素导致债券违约增加:房地产等行业融资渠道收紧;投资者避险意识上升,尤其是在房地产开发商恒大集团出现财务危机之后;政府对国企的支持更有选择性。但相对整体境内外债券市场,违约发行人数量和违约金额仍将较低。若有迹象表明债券违约可能大幅上升或将触发系统性风险,中国政府将会出手干预。Related report: Nonfinancial Companies - China: Corporate bond defaults will continue rising in 2022; restructuring process is evolving

    VIDEO
    16 Nov 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    央行数字人民币的正式发行和使用要求银行加大科技投入并提高网络安全和风险管理水平;同时,由于数字人民币支付即结算的特性,也将部分改变现有支付结算体系和货币供应结构。Related report: Banks – China: Design of e-CNY will minimize risk of bank disintermediation in its initial phase
    VIDEO

    Research Publication
    11 Nov 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Our 2022 outlook for Chinese RLGs is negative in view of our expectations of a contraction in land sales revenue and at least a temporary renewed shift toward debt-financed growth.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    28 Oct 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Tightened funding access has reduced liquidity. Developers have reduced spending on land and construction. Sales have declined. Risk aversion has increased, exacerbated by Evergrande’s credit distress and defaults by a few financially weak developers. Refinancing risk is rising as a result, especially for weak developers with significant near-term maturities.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    21 Oct 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    The tight credit environment continues to suppress onshore and offshore bond issuance for China’s property sector, slowing overall Asian high-yield bond issuance further. Rated issuance in Q3 ($4.6 billion) was much lower than in Q2 and Q1. And issuance for the first nine months of 2021 ($25.6 billion) was lower than during the same periods in 2020 and 2019.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    20 Oct 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    China’s plan to achieve economic sustainability by addressing income inequality and social risks will have far-reaching effects for many types of debt issuers. A lack of predictability and clear communication around policy implementation are the key near-term risks, while potential long-term benefits include improved productivity and social stability.

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    PODCAST
    13 Oct 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Gary Lau of the Corporate Finance team and Michael Taylor of the Credit Strategy & Research team discuss China Evergrande’s financial troubles and the credit implications for China’s property market, banks, government and potential spillovers to the global economy.