23 Jun 2020|Moody's Investors Service
Marie Diron from the Sovereign team and Research Writer Natasha Brereton-Fukui discuss the vulnerability of sovereigns that do not reduce debt to GDP after the coronavirus pandemic eases. Sustained higher debt burdens would increase the risk exposure of sovereigns with weaker credit quality to future economic or financial shocks.
24 Jun 2020|Moody's Investors Service
David Rogovic of the Sovereigns team discusses how the global travel slump is hurting emerging market countries, particularly small island-economies with a heavy dependence on tourism revenue. Plus, Barbara Mattos of the Corporates team shares insights as to how Brazilian mining giant Vale, a bellwether for the sector, is faring after coronavirus related disruption to its operations.
15 Jun 2020|Moody's Investors Service
Peter Nerby, David Fanger and Michael Porta of the US Financial Institutions team discuss what first quarter results from Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley tell us about the initial effects of the pandemic on their balance sheets and capital.
Podcast: US life insurers commercial mortgage loan exposure could weaken capital in post-coronavirus downturn
15 Jun 2020|Moody's Investors Service
Manoj Jethani and Danielle Reed of the Insurance team discuss the risks US life insurers will face in a post pandemic downturn, given significant underlying holdings in of lodging, retail and other commercial mortgage loans.
12 Jun 2020|Moody's Investors Service
Gunjan Dixit and Agustin Alberti of the Corporates team discuss the effects of coronavirus and structural shifts in demand on large US and European advertising agencies. Leverage of the Big Four agencies will rise across the board in 2020, before falling back next year.
10 Jun 2020|Moody's Investors Service
Michael Taylor of the Credit Strategy & Research team discusses the prospects for economic recovery and employment stability in China as the country tries to revitalize growth following the coronavirus. Also, Kelvin Dalrymple from the Sovereign team talks about the twin shocks for East Africa of the coronavirus and a locust infestation that threatens the region’s crops.
09 Jun 2020|Moody's Investors Service
James Eck, Bob Garofalo and Danielle Reed of the Insurance team discuss immediate and longer-term effects on US mortgage insurers of the coronavirus-driven economic shock.
04 Jun 2020|Moody's Investors Service
The coronavirus pandemic has accelerated existing disruptive trends and is causing a rethink of conventional habits, a reshaping of consumer preferences and a shift in competitive dynamics. Stephen Tu and Carolyn Henson of the Financial Institutions team discuss the potential longer-term impact on the financial services industry.
03 Jun 2020|Moody's Analytics
Construction delays are not uncommon, driven by unpredictable factors like weather changes as well as relative project complexity. Economic downturns worsen delays because labor and capital availability tend to decline. The COVID-19 crisis is different because of policy-mandated construction stoppages, so a detailed place-specific method of monitoring construction activity is critical. Moody's forecasts a 25% decline in industrial construction, 21% for apartment, 16% for retail, and 7% for office for calendar year 2020 because of the COVID-19 situation.
29 May 2020|Moody's Investors Service
David Keisman and Julia Chursin discuss why US corporate defaults during the pandemic are likely to produce bigger losses for investors. Erosion in credit quality, structure and covenants will suggest worse debt recoveries for first-lien bank debt in particular. Meanwhile, the prevalence of distressed debt exchanges will not be sufficient to stave off subsequent defaults if the downturn’s duration is protracted.
27 May 2020|Moody's Investors Service
Lucie Villa of the Sovereign team discusses a debt relief initiative for low-income countries grappling with liquidity pressures. Also, Daniela Jayesuria of the Structured Finance team offers insights on coronavirus-related debt moratoriums for individual and corporate borrowers in Latin America, one of the biggest securitization markets in emerging markets.
14 May 2020|Moody's Investors Service
Matthias Hellstern, Falk Frey and Bruce Clark of the Corporates team discuss their revised projections for global auto sales.
13 May 2020|Moody's Investors Service
Atsi Sheth of the Credit Strategy and Research team shares insights on how the coronavirus will likely push the global economy into recession this year, and why the downturn poses particular risks for emerging markets. Plus, Sean Marion of the Financial Institutions team discusses why credit risks are rising for South African banks.
11 May 2020|Moody's Analytics
The office sector has been subject to the forces of demographic, economic, and technological change for the last thirty years. The COVID-19 crisis, however, is likely to prompt a reversal in demographic change, and accelerate the disruptions caused by economic and technological shifts. In this video we discuss why the medium- to long-term prospects of the office sector are in peril, given the changes wrought by the pandemic.
05 May 2020|Moody's Investors Service
Mickey Chadha from the Corporates team and Suzanne Miller from Ratings and Research talk about how the coronavirus crisis is causing severe dislocation in the US retail industry and how this is driving retail’s speculative-grade default rate forecast higher.
29 Apr 2020|Moody's Investors Service
Ariane Ortiz-Bollin of the Sovereign team and Nymia Almeida of the Corporates team discuss the factors behind our recent rating downgrades of the Mexican sovereign and domestic energy giant PEMEX. Also, we get insights from Franco Leung of the Corporates team on the weaker operating environment for China’s property sector, one of the most active segments in emerging Asia debt markets.
28 Apr 2020|Moody's Investors Service
Danielle Reed and Dean Ungar of the Financial Institutions team talk about how coronavirus costs will affect US health insurers. In the most likely scenarios, rated issuers will remain profitable, which supports our stable outlook on the sector.
28 Apr 2020|Moody's Analytics
Challenged by the COVID-19 pandemic and economic contraction, US retail properties will likely record historic measures of distress in 2020. How will retailers like Macy’s fare? In this video, Moody's Analytics head of commercial real estate Victor Calanog analyzes geographic concentration. A detailed analysis of both risk and pockets of strength and opportunity are necessary.
27 Apr 2020|Moody's Investors Service
Colin Ellis of the Credit Strategy & Research team discusses how the coronavirus crisis intersects with the six major credit themes we identified for 2020: recession risks, lower-for-longer interest rates, political risks, trade tensions, disruptive technologies and ESG impact.
23 Apr 2020|Moody's Investors Service
David Beadle from the Corporates team and Tania Hall from Ratings and Research talk about how the coronavirus outbreak is affecting the credit quality of European retailers and the difficulties they face in the near and longer term.
15 Apr 2020|Moody's Investors Service
India’s sweeping lockdown to combat the coronavirus outbreak is the largest restriction of movement the world has ever seen. In this episode, Moody’s analysts William Foster and Alka Anbarasu talk through the credit implications of containment efforts for the country’s government and banks. Analyst Gabriel Torres also joins to discuss Argentina’s economic outlook and prospects for another debt restructuring.
10 Apr 2020|Moody's Investors Service
Lana Deharveng and Aniket Deshpande of the Structured Finance team discuss how the coronavirus outbreak and oil price shocks are affecting US CLOs.
09 Apr 2020|Moody's Analytics
Victor Calanog of Moody’s Analytics discusses the challenges that the retail sector will face due to coronavirus (COVID-19). From store closures, hits to incomes and values, to the ambiguity surrounding who pays for rent relief, the future is bleak for retail properties. The shift to online channels will likely only accelerate, and the future of brick and mortar has just become much more uncertain.
08 Apr 2020|Moody's Investors Service
Sean Marion and Nitish Bhojnagarwala from the Financial Institutions team discuss the key drivers behind our decision to change the outlook on five GCC banking systems to negative from stable.
07 Apr 2020|Moody's Investors Service
Eugene Tarzimanov from the Financial Institutions team discusses the driving factors behind our decision to change the outlook on 12 APAC banking systems to negative from stable. He primarily focuses on the multiple economic and credit market disruptions, amid the coronavirus epidemic.
06 Apr 2020|Moody's Investors Service
Paloma San Valentin and Ed DeForest of the Corporates team discuss how the coronavirus outbreak has inflicted quick and sweeping economic damage on a range of North American nonfinancial sectors.
01 Apr 2020|Moody's Analytics
Victor Calanog of Moody’s Analytics looks back at market responses for past catastrophic events (including earthquakes, hurricanes and terrorists attacks) to derive insight on the future of Multifamily supply and demand, given the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
01 Apr 2020|Moody's Investors Service
In this new podcast series, Moody’s experts from around the globe join host Rahul Ghosh to discuss key economic, financial and credit trends shaping emerging markets. Our first episode looks at what’s ahead for emerging market sovereigns as the coronavirus outbreak spreads and demand for oil drops. We also discuss our outlook for sustainable finance and ESG investing in emerging markets after a landmark year in 2019
26 Mar 2020|Moody's Investors Service
Sean Marion of the Financial Institutions team discusses the severe impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) on European banking systems, leading to outlook changes to negative for Spain, France, Italy, Belgium, The Netherlands and Denmark.
25 Mar 2020|Moody's Analytics
Victor Calanog of Moody’s Analytics examines two economic scenarios - severe pandemic and worst-case – and translates its effect on US multifamily and commercial real estate. Key to the analysis is how specific markets react, based on prior downturns; and each market's position of relative strength or weakness both on the supply- and demand-side, prior to the outbreak of coronavirus (COVID-19).
Video: Pandemics, panic, and prices - coronavirus and the commercial real estate transaction markets
17 Mar 2020|Moody's Analytics
Victor Calanog of Moody’s Analytics discusses the effect of extreme financial market volatility on the US multi-family and commercial real estate transaction markets, given the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19). With a recession looming, he looks closely at the 10-Year Treasury Yield, focusing on high volatility periods, and discusses what that can mean for the market during this global pandemic.
Video: Oil price plunge poses immediate threat to exploration & production companies and oilfield services amid coronavirus pandemic
16 Mar 2020|Moody's Investors Service
Steve Wood of the Corporates team discusses how falling oil prices, resulting from the coronavirus outbreak and the lack of an OPEC+ agreement around production cuts, will affect the energy industry. Exploration and production and oilfield services companies will weaken immediately, with less immediate stress for the midstream and refining and marketing sectors.
11 Mar 2020|Moody's Analytics
Victor Calanog of Moody's Analytics discusses the potential effects of coronavirus (COVID-19) on US multifamily and commercial real estate, highlighting lease lengths and renewals, susceptible geographic areas and property types, construction delays, and longer-term implications.
05 Mar 2020|Moody's Analytics
Mark Zandi of Moody's Analytics discusses the looming threat of coronavirus (COVID-19) to the global economy, highly impacted sectors, and financial markets, and considers the monetary and fiscal policy response that would ease the fallout from the potential downturn.
11 Mar 2020|Moody's Investors Service
Robard Williams and Atsi Sheth of the Credit Strategy & Research team discuss how the growing coronavirus outbreak is likely to drag on growth for all of the world’s major economies this year.