Coronavirus Effects
The coronavirus outbreak is disrupting economies and credit markets worldwide. The impact on issuers’ credit profiles and the economy will depend on the severity and duration of the crisis.
  • SUMMARY
  • REPORTS
  • Podcast & Video Archive
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  • Moody's response to the pandemic
  • Series: Credit After Covid

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    18 Nov 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Edoardo Calandro, David Fanger and Daniel Yu of the Banking team zero in on the COVID-19 pandemic’s effects on bank loans in the UK, US and Australia. Plus, Shachar Gonen of the Insurance team and Keith Banhazl of the Structured Finance team look at how much the slowdown in commercial real estate will weaken US life insurers’ CMBS holdings.​

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    16 Nov 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Analysts Sarah Carlson, Eugene Tarzimanov and Carolina Chimenti discuss the 2021 credit outlook for sovereigns, banks and companies across emerging market countries. The wide-ranging effects of the coronavirus will continue to be a dominant credit theme, along with still-weak tourism prospects, low oil prices and the rollback of forbearance and fiscal support in a number of countries.​​

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    12 Nov 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Atsi Sheth from the Credit Strategy team and Yves Lemay from the Sovereign Risk Group discuss the outlook for the global economy and sovereign credit in 2021 in light of the seismic financial shock caused by the coronavirus pandemic. They also outline the differing outlooks and credit risks faced by three key economies: the US, China and the UK.

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    09 Nov 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Anne Van Praagh and Michael Taylor of the Credit Strategy & Research team discuss six key trends that will affect the credit landscape as the world deals with the coronavirus crisis. These include an uneven and inconsistent economic recovery, sharply higher corporate and sovereign debt loads and numerous policy challenges for governments as they grapple with the economic and social consequences of the pandemic​​

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    04 Nov 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Banks will benefit from an increased customer base as accelerated digitalization makes financial services available to unbanked populations in emerging markets. But traditional banks face competition as big tech firms impinge on payment services and central banks explore creating their own digital currencies as a defensive move.

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    28 Oct 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Lucie Villa of the Sovereign team explains how the path to fiscal repair for many emerging market economies will likely be long and bumpy as revenue generation remains a struggle. Plus, William Foster, also of the Sovereign team, discusses whether India’s new fiscal stimulus push will be sufficient to jumpstart the country’s economy.

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    17 Oct 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    As policy rates continue to decline globally, Banking team member Laurie Mayers examines the effect on UK banks, while Shunsaku Sato does so for Japanese banks and Farooq Khan for Brazilian banks. Plus, Olivier Panis of the Banking team and Stefan Kahandaliyanage of the Asset Management team update financial institutions’ readiness for the transition away from Libor in 2021.​​​

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    08 Oct 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Atsi Sheth and Robard Williams from the Credit Strategy & Research team discuss the credit effects of key policy challenges that will confront the next US presidential administration, and the uncertainties surrounding the election.

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    06 Oct 2020
    Raj Joshi and Rick Lane of the Corporates team discuss how the coronavirus pandemic is accelerating the adoption of technology by businesses and consumers. As global macroeconomic conditions improve, these shifts will be credit positive for cloud infrastructure services, cloud-based software, semiconductor, IT services and the financial technology subsectors.

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    05 Oct 2020|Moody's Analytics
    Thomas LaSalvia from the Analytics team discusses how uncertainties involved in reopening schools amid the COVID-19 pandemic are forcing student housing operators to adapt and evolve.

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    30 Sep 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Constantinos Kypreos of the Banking team talks about the mounting credit strains on African banks, a reflection of the weakening financial strength of their home countries. Plus, Elisa Parisi-Capone of the Sovereign team examines the credit effects of Lebanon’s economic, financial and social crisis, as well as the potential for reforms.​

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    28 Sep 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Jane Soldera and Alexander Zeidler of the Covered Bonds team discuss how the coronavirus pandemic is triggering or strengthening long-lasting shifts in the credit environment for European covered bonds.

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    25 Sep 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Marianna Waltz of the Corporates team talks with analysts Carolina Chimenti and Alonso Sanchez about differences in Latin American corporate credit quality in 2021, after the worst effects of the pandemic have eased.

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    23 Sep 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Atsi Sheth and Rahul Ghosh of the Credit Strategy & Research team discuss how credit conditions will remain difficult for the sectors hardest hit by the coronavirus pandemic and global economic downturn. An economic recovery has begun but will likely be uneven, presenting a challenging operating environment for hotels and gaming, transportation, airlines, retail and commercial real estate.

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    23 Sep 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Peter Nerby and Michael Rohr of the Banking team discuss how global systemically important banks entered the coronavirus crisis with healthier balance sheets, capital and liquidity than before the last global downturn (begins at 8:14). Plus, Ceres Lisboa explains how Latin American banks risk a sharp deterioration in asset quality as payment deferrals and government aid lapse (begins at 2:05).​

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    16 Sep 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Matthias Heck and Anke Rindermann of the Corporate Finance team discuss how the coronavirus pandemic will reshape the auto industry in the years ahead.​​

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    16 Sep 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Gersan Zurita of the Credit Strategy & Research team discusses the steep decline in Mexican employment resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and why the road to recovery will be long. Plus, Evan Wohlmann of the Sovereign team explains how heightened political instability in Belarus is negative for the country’s sovereign credit quality.​​​

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    09 Sep 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    From our Insurance team, James Eck explains why threats to profitability turned the outlook on global reinsurers negative, and Laura Bazer tells us how the coronavirus shock jolted global life insurers into a new, more digital future.

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    04 Sep 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Susan Fitzgerald and Michael Osborn of the US Public Finance team discuss the financial difficulties US universities face as the coronavirus crisis hurts multiple revenue streams. The pandemic, however, will accelerate sector changes, most prominently universities bolstering online learning capabilities.

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    02 Sep 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Elena Duggar discusses the Credit Strategy & Research team’s analysis of the four main causes of sovereign bond defaults and how environmental, social and governance issues can be contributing factors. Plus, Atsi Sheth explains how increased manufacturing output and Chinese economic activity point to an incipient rebound in global trade.​​​

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    02 Sep 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Yubin Fu and Gene Fang of the Subsovereign Team discuss how some economically stronger Chinese provinces will record larger declines in growth, which should temporarily narrow regional economic disparities in the near term.​

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    25 Aug 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Steve Wood and Elena Nadtotchi from the Corporates team discuss the future of the oil and gas industry in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemc. 

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    25 Aug 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Earl Heffintrayer of the Project Infrastructure and Finance team, Valentina Gomez of the US Public Finance team and Peter Trombetta of the corporate finance team discuss how leisure travel will lead the way for travel and tourism-dependent sectors’ recovery after COVID. Long-haul, international and business travel will lag the return to pre-COVID levels.​

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    24 Aug 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Christina Boni and David Beadle of the Corporate Finance team discuss how US and European retail is responding to big changes and coping with an accelerated shift of consumers online.​​​

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    19 Aug 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Christian de Guzman of the Sovereign team discusses how lower wages and the fall in employment of migrant workers in advanced economies will result in a decline in remittances to some developing economies. Also, Banking team analyst Nitish Bhojnagarwala talks about our outlook for the issuance of Islamic sukuk bonds.​

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    12 Aug 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Alessandro Roccati from the banking team explains how coronavirus-driven demand for contactless digital financial services, along with remote work, are raising the cyber threat to banks (begins at 8:21). Plus, Steve Tu of the asset management team looks at how the latest US government intervention in money markets could signal an eventual phaseout of institutional prime funds (begins at 1:45).​​

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    05 Aug 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Corporates analyst Lahlou Meksaoui discusses the credit outlook for UAE property developers. Plus, Sean Hwang, also from the Corporates team, talks about prospects for a revival of Macao's gaming sector.​​​

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    03 Aug 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Jun Yang and Rebaca Tan of the Financial Institutions team discuss how low interest rates and demographic changes, combined with the fallout from coronavirus outbreak, will weaken the profit outlook for at Asia-Pacific banks.

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    21 Jul 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Lina Choi and Kristen McNamara discuss sluggish revenue and earnings forecasts in light of the coronavirus crisis, with automotives, oil and gas and oilfield services most vulnerable in the current environment. However, credit quality should improve gradually in 2021 as macroeconomic conditions normalize.​​

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    15 Jul 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Jody Shenn and Anthony Parry from the Structured Finance team discuss how COVID-19 will cause a paradigm shift for key credit risk components and drivers of the global structured finance market.

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    15 Jul 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Kevin Fagan and Blair Coulson from our Structured Finance team discuss the future of office usage in the US amid the fallout from coronavirus and its implications for commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS).​​

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    22 Jul 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Artem Frolov of the Corporates team provides insight about our cautiously optimistic view of Russian oil companies’ credit dynamics despite the adverse operating environment. Plus, Michael Higgins of the Sovereign team discusses the challenges and recovery prospects for non-investment grade emerging and frontier market sovereigns.​​

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    13 Jul 2020|Moody's Analytics
    Victor Calanog from the Analytics team discusses how the US industrial property market (particularly warehouse distribution facilities and data centers) is set to further benefit post COVID-19.

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    08 Jul 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Sarah Carlson of the Sovereign team examines Turkey’s economic and credit prospects following the coronavirus shock. Plus, Merxe Tudela Carreres of the Model Development group discusses the findings of Moody’s new EM Financial Conditions Indicators series.​​

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    01 Jul 2020|Moody's Analytics
    Victor Calanog from the Analytics team discusses the early warning signals of loan distress and other concerns as lockdown abates. Nearly 84% of relief requests in US Commercial Mortgage Back Securities (CMBS) come from hotels and retailers, according to client experience.

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    29 Jun 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Rahul Ghosh from the Credit Strategy & Research team introduces Moody’s new Emerging Market Financial Conditions Indicators and outlines what to expect for major emerging markets’ credit prospects in the second half of 2020.

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    29 Jun 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Marianna Waltz, Marie Fischer-Sabatie, Martina Gallardo Barreyro and Erick Rodrigues of the Corporates team discuss how the worldwide coronavirus outbreak has affected corporate liquidity in Latin America.​​​