Sizeable and growing demand for both mature and market-leading nodes has meant export controls have not had a major impact on chip companies to date.
A series of lower-than-expected rice harvests and a wave of export restrictions in the second half of 2023 have kept rice prices high and renewed food security concerns in the region.
The rate will likely decline to 3.6% by the end of 2024, from a 5% peak in January, as central banks begin lowering policy rates.
The large number of elections in 2024, against a backdrop of high interest rates, weak growth and geopolitical tensions, increase the risk of policy shifts that could eventually have credit effects.
Easing inflation and slowing growth are laying paths for interest rate cuts, though price pressures could linger. Geopolitical risks are ever-present and add significant uncertainty to global growth.
Around €300 billion of European spec-grade corporate debt needs refinancing by 2026, but uncertain market access, slower growth and higher interest rates increase risks for some lower rated entities.
Weak credit fundamentals and subdued investor sentiment suggest more governments are likely to default in the coming years.
Strong policies, innovation and falling costs are set to propel green capital spending this year. However, a busy election calendar and slowing economic growth could temper that momentum.
Moody’s experts discuss the mixed credit outlook, with interest rate cuts on the horizon but economic growth set to slow and a range of risks keeping markets on edge.
We discuss inflation’s last mile, commercial real estate, carbon transition financing gaps, the effects of AI and digital finance growth, and the key political trends apt to affect credit quality.
But credit conditions will remain near historical norms in the US, UK and euro area, supported by labor markets, corporate profits and other factors. Q1 credit conditions will remain weak in emerging markets.
Six key environmental, social and governance trends will shape credit strength in 2024 and beyond.
A $4 billion fine for the cryptocurrency exchange Binance indicates greater regulatory focus that could bring more security and confidence to the crypto sector.
The conflict's credit effects should be limited to Israeli issuers, but an escalation that disrupts global energy and financial markets would widen the scope significantly.