Policy Shifts
Policymakers are scaling back fiscal and monetary support to varying degrees; domestic politics, geopolitical risks and regulatory actions are setting credit context. Policy support will remain important for longer in emerging markets.

  • Outlook
    29 Jun 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    Global credit conditions have turned more negative on rising interest rates, the Russia-Ukraine military conflict, slower economic growth, surging prices for energy and commodities, renewed supply-chain disruption and financial market volatility.

    Sector Comment
    10 May 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    Weak adherence to structural rules and frequent use of exceptions and lax enforcement by the EU have weakened confidence in the rules and often strained political cohesion within the union.

    17 Mar 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    We are lowering our global economic growth projections and raising our inflation forecasts as a result of spillover effects from the Russia-Ukraine military conflict. Economic risks will flow through three major channels: commodity price shocks, financial and business disruption, and security challenges.

    Sector In-depth
    17 Mar 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    Most US companies can weather higher interest rates, assuming other looming risks do not cause earnings deterioration. Higher short-term interest rates will also boost US banks’ net interest margins and be positive for asset managers with sizable money-market mutual fund operations. Meanwhile, US housing demand and price growth will slow.

    Sector In-Depth
    16 Feb 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    Continued inflationary pressures and tighter monetary policies will have implications for sovereigns, banks, corporates and other sectors throughout Latin America.

    11 Jan 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    We now expect three US interest rate hikes this year, compared with our November expectation of none until 2023. As the US economy continues to add jobs at a rapid clip, the Federal Reserve is well placed to move to a neutral monetary stance, notwithstanding the risks posed by the current surge in COVID-19 cases.

    16 Nov 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    The US Congress agreed to increase the federal debt limit by $480 billion from the previous limit of about $28.4 trillion, providing lawmakers with more time to reach a longer-term agreement to either suspend or lift the debt limit. But political dynamics remain unchanged, and we expect renewed brinkmanship.

    08 Nov 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    The $1 trillion spending package passed by the US Congress is credit positive for state and local governments, electric utilities and power companies, and for companies in construction-related sectors. The legislation will have limited effects on the sovereign's fiscal dynamics.

    14 Oct 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    The global minimum corporate tax rate will be mildly credit negative for sovereigns that have used tax policy as a key component of a broader competitiveness strategy to attract investment, such as Ireland, Hungary and many Caribbean countries, which typically have corporate tax rates below 15%.

    13 Oct 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Gary Lau of the Corporate Finance team and Michael Taylor of the Credit Strategy & Research team discuss China Evergrande’s financial troubles and the credit implications for China’s property market, banks, government and potential spillovers to the global economy.

    05 Oct 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    If the US debt limit is not increased or suspended by 18 October, the US government would need to prioritize between debt-service and other payments, raising the possibility of a technical default. Despite ongoing political polarization and debt limit brinkmanship in the US Congress, we believe the debt limit will be raised in time to avoid a missed interest payment.

    09 Sep 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Acute supply shortages stemming from shipping bottlenecks and labor supply disruptions have raised input costs and contributed to inflation across the globe. Inflation will remain elevated through 2021 in most major economies before subsiding next year as base effects reverse and the effect of price increases fade amid reopening pressures. 

    11 Aug 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    The $1 trillion infrastructure package that the US Senate passed on 10 August, if signed into law, would be credit positive for state and local governments, electric utilities and power companies, and for a range of companies in other infrastructure-related sectors. The bill's increased spending would support the post-COVID-19 economic expansion and modestly boost long-term growth prospects, with limited effects on the sovereign's fiscal dynamics. 

    02 Aug 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    China's semiconductor industry development plan will bring credit benefits for the sovereign if it leads to development of more advanced products and mitigates strategic vulnerabilities. But over-investment in certain types of semiconductors could lead to resource misallocation, resulting in higher credit risks for smaller and private domestic producers.