Recession Risks
Recession risks are on the rise as the global economic slowdown becomes more pronounced. Late-cycle risks continue to build amid higher leverage.
  • SUMMARY
  • REPORTS

  • SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    19 Feb 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Credit conditions in Asia will likely weaken this year in tandem with a slowdown in growth momentum, continued trade policy uncertainty and simmering political disputes. The outbreak of the coronavirus globally has further dented growth prospects.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    19 Feb 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    In our new report, The State of the Mexican Consumer, we discuss how households in Mexico are unlikely to ramp up spending this year amid low credit availability. Also, consumer confidence in future economic conditions is declining, while employment growth remains sluggish.

    OUTLOOK
    16 Feb 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    We have revised our 2020 global GDP growth forecast down, reflecting the impact of the coronavirus in China and domestic challenges in India, Mexico and South Africa. For China, we have reduced our growth forecast to 5.2% for 2020 from 5.8% previously, and maintain our 2021 growth forecast of 5.7%.

    SECTOR COMMENT
    10 Feb 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    The coronavirus outbreak is credit negative, to varying degrees, for many debt issuers around the world,  a result of disruption to economic activity and financial markets in China and beyond.

    Outlook
    31 Jan 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Eight of the 53 Industry Sector Outlooks (ISOs) that we track moved in a negative direction in the last quarter of 2019, signaling fundamental industry trends that continue to cool in 2020, even with declining interest rates and liquid capital markets.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    30 Jan 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    The annual default rate for speculative-grade financial and nonfinancial companies that we rate will edge up to 3.3% in 2020 from 3.0% in 2019 under our baseline forecast. Slower GDP growth, trade tensions and geopolitical issues underpin our forecast. Our forecast also factors in more high-risk issuers compared with a year ago.