Reshaped Economies
The economic recovery faces a complex set of challenges, with three key developments likely to influence conditions in the coming months: the Russia-Ukraine crisis, the speed and extent of global monetary tightening and China’s economic trajectory.

  • Outlook
    29 Jun 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    Global credit conditions have turned more negative on rising interest rates, the Russia-Ukraine military conflict, slower economic growth, surging prices for energy and commodities, renewed supply-chain disruption and financial market volatility.

    28 Jun 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    Broad-based inflation is depressing US consumer sentiment and lowering real earnings. A drop in savings rates and lower household wealth after recent financial market volatility could sharply slow private spending if inflation stays high. 

    Sector Comment
    27 Jun 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    New data indicates that sharp increases in mortgage rates are diminishing affordability for home buyers and cooling what had been a heated US residential real estate market.

    Sector In-Depth
    15 Jun 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    Inflation, especially rising food and energy prices, continues to erode the purchasing power of consumers in Europe. Higher interest rates will further strain household income, especially for borrowers with floating interest-rate debt.

    14 Jun 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    On this episode of Moody’s Talks – The Big Picture, analysts Madhavi Bokil and Christina Padgett join host Jennifer Wong to analyze the state of the global economy and how uncertain macro dynamics are affecting corporate borrowers.

    Sector In-Depth
    03 Jun 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    High-frequency alternative economic data point to multipronged challenges to global growth as shipping disruptions and shortages of key inputs persist, financial conditions tighten, and consumer and business sentiment weakens.

    26 May 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    We have lowered our global economic growth projections and raised our inflation forecasts for 2022 and 2023 as ongoing supply shocks stoke inflation, consumer purchasing power weakens and monetary policy becomes more hawkish. We now expect the G-20 economies to grow 3.1% in 2022, down from 5.9% growth in 2021, and we predict a further slowdown in growth to 2.9% in 2023.

    Sector In-Depth
    10 May 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    Our analysis of inflation targeting by central banks across a selection of G-20 economies supports our view that the current period of high inflation will ultimately recede. However, even short-lived spikes in inflation reduce real wages, lowering household purchasing power and increasing the likelihood of financial distress, particularly for weaker borrowers.

    Sector Comment
    09 May 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    The slew of US data releases confirm that the US economic conditions remain strong, but the economy is moving through late-stage business cycle dynamics at a rapid pace.

    19 May 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    This edition recaps recent research on Russia/Ukraine, China, South Africa, Turkey, El Salvador, among others. It also offers a data-rich appendix of metrics for 105 rated EM sovereigns.