Rising Trade Tensions
Rising tensions between global trading partners, including US and China tariffs, set the stage for broader challenges to the global trade regime, financial markets uncertainty, disruptions to manufacturing supply chains, and dampened economic growth.
  • SUMMARY
  • REPORTS

  • SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    15 Oct 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    In the latest installment of our Global Trade Monitor, we discuss how trade tensions and protectionist actions are contributing to a manufacturing recession evident across regions. Despite recent announcements of a potential agreement, US-China negotiations are likely to remain challenging, and trade disputes and uncertainty will continue to weigh on global credit conditions.

    Sector In-Depth
    19 Sep 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    Trade negotiations between the US and the European Union are at an impasse, with auto tariffs remaining a key sticking point and the long-running dispute over aircraft subsidies still unresolved. While we do not expect an escalation of trade tensions between the US and the EU in our baseline scenario, such an escalation would slow the EU's economic growth.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    16 Sep 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    Mexico, Paraguay and Bolivia are among the most vulnerable to a slowdown in global trade while Chile and Peru are most exposed to slowing export demand from China.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    16 Sep 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    The escalation of tensions between the US and China will further cloud the trade and economic outlook in Asia, with a predominantly negative effect at the sector level. At the same time, US importers will continue to divert some trade away from China, a credit positive for some economies and sectors in the region.

    SECOR COMMENT
    03 Sep 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    We expect the steadily worsening trade friction between the world's two largest economies to leave a lasting impact on the global economy. Of the three plausible scenarios for US-China trade tensions that we have identified, we believe that the risk of a “hardened stance” scenario has increased as trade relations worsen.

    OUTLOOK
    22 Aug 2019|Moody's Investors Service
    We expect global growth to slow below trend to 2.7% in 2019 and 2020, about half a percentage point below the level in 2017-18. Our below-consensus growth forecasts had already incorporated the expectation of deteriorating global growth and some escalation of trade tensions.