The Big Picture
From the uneven economic recovery to the acceleration of digitization and rising focus on social trends amid COVID-19, several key themes are shaping global credit conditions. We assess the impact on countries, regions and sectors.
  • SUMMARY
  • REPORTS
  • Webinars

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    Uneven Recovery
    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    25 Feb 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    COVID-19 restrictions in the largest European economies continue to weigh on consumer confidence. But consumers and businesses are adapting to the constraints, limiting the declines in retail sales compared with the start of the pandemic.
    OUTLOOK
    23 Feb 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    We expect the G-20 economies to grow collectively by 5.3% this year and by 4.5% in 2022, after contracting 3.3% in 2020. Most countries’ overall economic outcomes last year were better than our forecasts because of stronger-than-expected rebounds in the second half.

    PODCAST
    25 Feb 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    In this month’s featured segment, Yehudah Forster of the Residential Mortgage-backed Securities team breaks down potential changes to the qualified mortgage rules, and what they mean for the credit quality of future RMBS. Plus, Aaron Johnson and Xhen Pisha draw on our 2021 outlooks to highlight the structured finance asset classes on the bumpiest roads as the economy recovers from a tumultuous 2020.
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    Digital Transformation
    Sector In depth
    26 Jan 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Cybersecurity issues will continue to grow as a credit factor in 2021.
    Sector In Depth
    12 Jan 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Asset tokenization, which involves the creation of a digital representation of an asset on a blockchain, has transformative potential in financial services. If widely adopted, the technology could increase efficiency and liquidity in credit markets, giving investors more options across asset classes and expanding financing access for borrowers.

    PODCAST
    24 Feb 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Donald Robertson and Fadi Massih of the Securities and Exchanges team size up the implications that the recent social media-powered short squeeze has for US retail brokers, market makers, clearinghouses and exchanges (begins at 12:04). Plus, Swen Metzler spotlights German banks’ pressing need to rein in costs, and Alka Anbarasu tells us which Indian banks will win the race to go digital (begins at 3:01).
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    Policy Challenges
    Sector Comment
    22 Jan 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    The Biden administration’s initial executive actions mark a distinct repositioning on key issues. These shifts have economic and policy implications, with potential credit effects for structured finance, oil and gas, automobiles, tourism and higher education.
    Sector In Depth
    22 Jan 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    While the agreement avoids a no-deal scenario, it lacks substance on services, which is vital to the UK economy. Ongoing uncertainties will continue to weigh on domestic issuers.
    Rising Debt Burdens
    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    23 Feb 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Years of adding debt in a low-interest-rate environment has left many large US utility holding companies with little financial cushion to withstand external shocks. Eleven of the 25 largest investment-grade utility holding companies have three-year average ratios of funds from operations to debt that are below the threshold we have indicated for a possible downgrade.
    OUTLOOK
    11 Jan 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Subdued and fragile growth prospects, together with calls for policymakers to support an inclusive recovery, will pose significant challenges to fiscal consolidation among euro-area countries this year. High debt levels and stop-start growth will intensify the risk and potential impact of another shock.
    Environmental Impact
    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    01 Mar 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Among the largest global economies, the strength and implementation of renewable and clean energy policies vary, with China and the EU plus UK leading the way while the US trails its peers.
    25 Feb 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Electric-vehicle battery makers will generally benefit from rising battery demand, but rapid business expansion and investments in innovative technology to maintain a competitive edge will come with operational risks and the challenge of keeping leverage stable. Mihoko Manabe and Motoki Yanase of the Corporates team in Tokyo examine the credit implications for rated battery makers in this podcast.
    Social Trends
    Sector In Depth
    18 Jan 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Heightened health and safety concerns stemming from the pandemic will accelerate shifts to online shopping and working from home, reducing demand for retail and prime office space.
    Sector In Depth
    01 Dec 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    US not-for-profit hospitals are exposed to social risk in four Moody's ESG classifications: demographics & societal trends, human capital, customer relations and responsible production.

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    PODCAST
    10 Feb 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    A dwindling number of workers in developed economies will support a growing share of retirees, and growth and profitability are declining for banks, insurers and asset managers. Young Kim of the Insurance team and Tomoya Suzuki of the Banking team examine how South Korea’s insurers and Japan’s regional banks are turning demographics into opportunities (begins at 2:35), while Dean Ungar of the Asset Management team zeroes in on US asset managers’ future (begins at 11:35).​