US Housing & Housing Finance: What’s after the boom?
Housing supply has remained tight relative to demand but affordability strains amid rising interest rates are poised to weigh on sales activity and prices. A strong employment market and demographic trends will help support housing conditions.

  • Sector In-Depth
    19 Jul 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    New home prices will weaken from peaks because of demand slowing from 2020-21 frenetic pace and rapidly declining affordability. Lower prices will help ease high homeownership costs from higher interest rates and prices that threaten demand.

    Sector In-Depth
    19 Jul 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    Inflation and mortgage rates that nearly doubled over six months will sideline some potential homebuyers. Yet macroeconomic and demographic factors point to continued strong housing demand and we see homebuilders' 2022 revenue growing 10% - 12%.

    Sector Comment
    27 Jun 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    New data indicates that sharp increases in mortgage rates are diminishing affordability for home buyers and cooling what had been a heated US residential real estate market.

    22 Jun 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    We expect price increases for products like bathroom fixtures, cabinets and windows will rise moderately in second half of the year compared with prices in the last half of 2021. Prices for lumber and steel should fall. Companies that sell building materials like aggregates and cement are best positioned to reap strong margins.

    Sector Comment
    17 May 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    Homebuilding and building products companies benefitted from soaring housing demand and are better able to handle an economic downturn and any ripple effects from the invasion of Ukraine than industries still recovering from the pandemic. Credit quality is stable for 92% of the US homebuilding and building products companies that we stress tested. The strong housing market helped these companies reduce debt and grow liquidity and refinance to push out debt maturities before the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Also, while input costs are rising, the industry’s exposure to Europe is minimal.

    Sector In-Depth
    09 Mar 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    The surge in US home prices will subside as tight supply gives way to rising interest rates, but the strong job market and demand from millennials will help sustain increased values. The credit effects for housing-related debt issuers and mortgage performance remain generally positive.

    12 Jan 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    Multiple states are launching programs this month funded by the $10 billion federal Homeowner Assistance Fund, which will decrease HFA loan forbearance.

    11 Jan 2022|Moody's Investors Service
    We now expect three US interest rate hikes this year, compared with our November expectation of none until 2023. As the US economy continues to add jobs at a rapid clip, the Federal Reserve is well placed to move to a neutral monetary stance, notwithstanding the risks posed by the current surge in COVID-19 cases.

    08 Dec 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Warren Kornfeld from the Banking team, Rachael McDonald from Public Finance, Kelly Chen and Natalia Gluschuk from Corporates and Barbara Rismondo from Structured Finance discuss the outlook for sectors exposed to the US, European and Chinese housing markets in the year ahead.

    03 Dec 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Infrastructure push in US, green initiatives in EU boosts building materials. Pandemic, demographics drive strong demand for US housing.

    07 Dec 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    The home price boom will expand risks in new deals, but also help mitigate the lingering effects of pandemic. Borrower accommodations will create risk for some deals.