Uneven Recovery
Recovery from the unprecedented economic shock of the coronavirus will be tenuous and inconsistent. Prospects will diverge across countries, regions and sectors, constraining the recovery’s overall pace.
  • SUMMARY
  • REPORTS

  • SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    25 Feb 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    COVID-19 restrictions in the largest European economies continue to weigh on consumer confidence. But consumers and businesses are adapting to the constraints, limiting the declines in retail sales compared with the start of the pandemic.

    PODCAST
    25 Feb 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    In this month’s featured segment, Yehudah Forster of the Residential Mortgage-backed Securities team breaks down potential changes to the qualified mortgage rules, and what they mean for the credit quality of future RMBS. Plus, Aaron Johnson and Xhen Pisha draw on our 2021 outlooks to highlight the structured finance asset classes on the bumpiest roads as the economy recovers from a tumultuous 2020.
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    OUTLOOK
    23 Feb 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    We expect the G-20 economies to grow collectively by 5.3% this year and by 4.5% in 2022, after contracting 3.3% in 2020. Most countries’ overall economic outcomes last year were better than our forecasts because of stronger-than-expected rebounds in the second half.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    17 Feb 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    You ask, we answer. Our Top of Mind report answers the questions that investors most frequently ask our corporate industry experts about the most pressing issues companies face, from the ongoing effects of the coronavirus pandemic to how different sectors will fare as the economy recovers. 

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    11 Feb 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Virus restrictions are weighing on spending in some countries and on trade activity. Industrial production data point to a continued supply-side recovery, although activity in many countries remains below pre-COVID levels.

    SECTOR COMMENT
    05 Feb 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    The January US jobs report reinforces two contrasting themes in the country’s economic recovery  –  stuttering improvement in labor market conditions and growth, and still-acute distress among the sectors and workers hardest hit by the coronavirus pandemic.

    28 Jan 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    The global roster of corporate industry sector outlooks turned mildly positive as 2020 ended. Uncertainty still runs high despite expectations for 2021 to be a better year than 2020, although not 2019.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    28 Jan 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    The start of mass vaccinations has brightened consumers’ views of the overall economy even as concerns about virus contagion remain high. New lockdown measures in the largest European economies will disrupt consumption but to a much milder degree than during last spring’s lockdowns.
    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    28 Jan 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Oil and gas, retail, and business services had the most defaults in 2020. We expect the trailing 12-month global corporate speculative-grade default rate to peak at 7.3% in March, then decline to 4.7% by year-end. If these forecasts crystalize, the pandemic-induced default cycle will be relatively mild compared with prior recessionary default cycles, when peaks ranged from 9.7% to 13.3%.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    26 Jan 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Asia is better positioned to absorb the ongoing shock of COVID-19 than other regions, although its economic activity and living standards in 2021 will trail pre-pandemic projections.
    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    25 Jan 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    The fundamental credit quality of low-rated companies will remain strained, particularly in sectors that the pandemic has hurt the most. The reliance on additional liquidity likely will persist this year for those companies confronting looming debt maturities as they try to stave off default.

    SECTOR COMMENT
    21 Jan 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    A moderate increase in inflation over the next three to five years would be a positive development that would indicate a healthy economic recovery.

    SECTOR COMMENT
    15 Jan 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    The proposed $1.9 trillion pandemic aid package includes funding for vaccine distribution, state and local governments, and additional relief for individuals. The magnitude of the effects on economic and credit conditions would depend on the size and scope of the package that Congress ultimately passes.