Uneven Recovery
Recovery from the unprecedented economic shock of the coronavirus will be tenuous and inconsistent. Prospects will diverge across countries, regions and sectors, constraining the recovery’s overall pace.
  • SUMMARY
  • REPORTS

  • SECTOR COMMENT
    23 Nov 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    We answer frequently asked questions about how vaccine approval and distribution will affect the global economic environment, the challenges in achieving mass vaccination and how vaccine availability will affect the recovery path of the hardest-hit sectors of the economy.

    PODCAST
    12 Nov 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Atsi Sheth from the Credit Strategy team and Yves Lemay from the Sovereign Risk Group discuss the outlook for the global economy and sovereign credit in 2021 in light of the seismic financial shock caused by the coronavirus pandemic. They also outline the differing outlooks and credit risks faced by three key economies: the US, China and the UK.
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    OUTLOOK
    12 Nov 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    A tentative economic recovery is underway but the path is beset by uncertainty. Effective pandemic management, the development and distribution of a coronavirus vaccine, and the continuation of government policy support to households and businesses will determine the economic trajectory over the coming year.

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    OUTLOOK
    09 Nov 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Global credit conditions will improve overall in 2021, aided by unprecedented COVID-19-related fiscal and monetary policy support. However, the initial rapid economic rebound is giving way to a patchier, more tenuous recovery as the pandemic proves hard to contain. Six key themes will shape the credit environment in the year ahead: Uneven recovery, policy challenges, rising debt burdens, digital transformation, environmental impact and social trends.
    PODCAST
    09 Nov 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Anne Van Praagh and Michael Taylor of the Credit Strategy & Research team discuss six key trends that will affect the credit landscape as the world deals with the coronavirus crisis. These include an uneven and inconsistent economic recovery, sharply higher corporate and sovereign debt loads and numerous policy challenges for governments as they grapple with the economic and social consequences of the pandemic.

    DATA REPORT
    10 Nov 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    The trailing 12-month global speculative-grade default rate stood at 6.5% at the end of October, nearly double the pre-pandemic level of 3.3%, a reflection of the coronavirus-induced recession and stress in the energy sector. The total number of corporate defaults climbed to 180 year to date, surpassing the annual count each year since the global financial crisis.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    03 Nov 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    A second wave of coronavirus infections is threatening the fragile economic recovery among G-20 nations, and high frequency alternative data point to an uneven and inconsistent rebound in trade. Improvement in financial conditions has stalled in the euro area, and is slowing in emerging markets.

    29 Oct 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    We had a negative bias on 28% of rated emerging market (EM) sovereigns in the third quarter, up from 20% at year-end 2019, as prolonged disruption from the coronavirus pandemic took its toll. The share of EM companies with a negative bias increased to 31% from 20% over the same period.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    28 Oct 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    The recovery of Europe's five largest economies has not reversed, but is gradually losing momentum. Increased COVID-19 cases and the resumption of closures and restrictions on movement have yet to translate into lesser demand. Contagion fear levels are stable, as is consumer confidence, although at a relatively low level.

    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    16 Oct 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Increasing infection rates across advanced and emerging markets are weighing on consumer demand and stalling positive economic momentum. The recovery in manufacturing activity is also slowing. While domestic travel is picking up across countries, international travel remains weak.

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    PODCAST
    08 Oct 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    Atsi Sheth and Robard Williams from the Credit Strategy & Research team discuss the credit effects of key policy challenges that will confront the next US presidential administration, and the uncertainties surrounding the election.
    SECTOR IN-DEPTH
    05 Oct 2020|Moody's Investors Service
    The US presidential election outcome will help determine policies to address the weakened economy, the coronavirus pandemic and healthcare access, increasingly tense relations with China, fiscal policy and government debt, and environmental challenges. The policy response will affect credit conditions for a range of debt issuers.