China Growth & Credit
Policy uncertainties around trade, unforeseen events like coronavirus outbreak, as well as long-term structural challenges pose credit risks to China, increasing credit differentiation between domestic regions and sectors.

  • Moody's Creditview - China
    23 Nov 2021|Moody's Corporation
    The new Moody’s CreditView China provides you with the data transparency and quality you need to confidently assess and globally compare the largest Chinese bond issuers.

    25 Nov 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    The downturn in China’s property market will slow the country’s GDP growth in 2022, with losses and defaults in the sector also raising credit risk for developers, creditors, banks, regional and local governments, and households. However, the government has the policy tools to limit large-scale spillover risk to the financial system.

    17 Nov 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    企业融资部董庆雯认为以下因素导致债券违约增加:房地产等行业融资渠道收紧;投资者避险意识上升,尤其是在房地产开发商恒大集团出现财务危机之后;政府对国企的支持更有选择性。但相对整体境内外债券市场,违约发行人数量和违约金额仍将较低。若有迹象表明债券违约可能大幅上升或将触发系统性风险,中国政府将会出手干预。Related report: Nonfinancial Companies - China: Corporate bond defaults will continue rising in 2022; restructuring process is evolving

    16 Nov 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    央行数字人民币的正式发行和使用要求银行加大科技投入并提高网络安全和风险管理水平;同时,由于数字人民币支付即结算的特性,也将部分改变现有支付结算体系和货币供应结构。Related report: Banks – China: Design of e-CNY will minimize risk of bank disintermediation in its initial phase

    Research Publication
    11 Nov 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Our 2022 outlook for Chinese RLGs is negative in view of our expectations of a contraction in land sales revenue and at least a temporary renewed shift toward debt-financed growth.

    28 Oct 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Tightened funding access has reduced liquidity. Developers have reduced spending on land and construction. Sales have declined. Risk aversion has increased, exacerbated by Evergrande’s credit distress and defaults by a few financially weak developers. Refinancing risk is rising as a result, especially for weak developers with significant near-term maturities.

    21 Oct 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    The tight credit environment continues to suppress onshore and offshore bond issuance for China’s property sector, slowing overall Asian high-yield bond issuance further. Rated issuance in Q3 ($4.6 billion) was much lower than in Q2 and Q1. And issuance for the first nine months of 2021 ($25.6 billion) was lower than during the same periods in 2020 and 2019.

    20 Oct 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    China’s plan to achieve economic sustainability by addressing income inequality and social risks will have far-reaching effects for many types of debt issuers. A lack of predictability and clear communication around policy implementation are the key near-term risks, while potential long-term benefits include improved productivity and social stability.

    13 Oct 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Gary Lau of the Corporate Finance team and Michael Taylor of the Credit Strategy & Research team discuss China Evergrande’s financial troubles and the credit implications for China’s property market, banks, government and potential spillovers to the global economy.

    11 Oct 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    On 29 September, China Evergrande Group announced that one of its subsidiaries would dispose of its 19.93% stake in Shengjin Bank for a total consideration of RMB 9,993 million.

    27 Sep 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Chinese authorities will seek to avoid instability from Evergrande’s resolution to avoid widespread negative repercussions across the economy. However, some costs will likely be borne by the central and regional governments, some financial institutions and other property developers.

    27 Sep 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Rated Chinese construction companies are among the largest globally and have significant amounts of outstanding debt. Their adjusted debt/EBITDA will remain near the all-time high of 6.2x in 2021 and 2022. New orders will drive revenue growth. But higher costs will squeeze margins, which will temper EBITDA growth. And companies will continue to incur debt to fund expansion.
    16 Sep 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Tightening government measures will drive further divergence in LGFVs’ funding access.
    09 Jul 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    China has committed to reaching peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. This will promote an increase in national energy efficiency over the next decade, but the implementation of carbon transition will be uneven across provinces.
    17 Mar 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Hunan is a province with moderate credit risk; economic development concentrated in provincial capital Changsha. Hunan has a large LGFV sector dominated by LGFVs owned by provincial and Changsha governments. Hunan’s policies and measures to manage LGFV debt are credit positive for LGFVs in the province.

    03 Sep 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    China cuts reserve requirement rate, adding liquidity to the onshore bond market, but the impact on companies’ funding access will be uneven.
    31 Aug 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    The government is likely to support distressed state-owned enterprises (SOEs) that are strategically important, have strong government links and are industry leaders, such as subway-system operators in large cities. But the government is increasingly likely to allow less strategically important SOEs to default or restructure debt, if a default is unlikely to cause systemic risk.
    19 Aug 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    This report provides a summary of recent rating actions, bond issuance and updates on government policies affecting rated Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs). 
    07 Jun 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    Key economic activity indicators point to China’s recovery having strengthened and become more broad based in H1 2021

    21 Sep 2021|Moody's Investors Service
    China’s spending to increase semiconductor production significantly will be modest compared with GDP, so credit risk is low for the sovereign. Credit risk is also low for large producers but higher for smaller producers with less government support and foreign producers.

    Lillian Li
    VP, Senior Credit Officer