China's policy makers have three main policy objectives: maintaining reasonably high rates of GDP growth, reforming and rebalancing the economy, and ensuring financial and economic stability. However, against a backdrop of slower growth, capital flow volatility and rising corporate stress, it will be increasingly difficult for these policy objectives to be achieved in unison, which will pose challenges for China’s credit universe. This page provides a centralized source for Moody's research related to key credit issues in China as the country's macroeconomic story continues to unfold.
On 16 March 2015, we updated our Bank rating Methodology, following which we placed around 40% of our bank deposit and senior unsecured debt ratings on review, as described in our 17 March 2015 press release. This page contains all of our rating action announcements and research related to the new Banks rating methodology or the removal of support in European bank ratings. For tutorials, videos and other background material on the methodology, please access the educational site.
With the recent and prospective entry of several African sovereigns, financial institutions and large corporations into international debt capital markets, increasing demand from investors for timely information regarding sovereign creditworthiness, banking system strength and the corporate operating environment has prompted this centralized source for Moody’s research related to key credit developments on the continent.
Global infrastructure financing needs are vast, estimated to be trillions of dollars annually for the foreseeable future. As governments around the world look to secure resources necessary to renew and expand their energy, transportation and other infrastructure assets, they will increasingly look to capital markets and private sector finance to ensure sufficient investment in these vital projects. This page provides a centralized source for Moody’s research related to key credit issues concerning these matters.
Real interest rates remain in negative territory in the US, Europe, Japan and other advanced economies. This accommodative stance and in some cases the use of unconventional measures have significant credit implications across countries and sectors. The potential for continued Fed rate increases in the US at a time of lower rates in other large economies will fuel shifts in currency values and capital flows which are relevant for credit. This page provides a centralized source for Moody's research related to key credit issues concerning these matters.
Mid-cap companies and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are increasingly tapping alternative funding sources to complement bank loans as they look to finance new investments, restructure existing obligations and fund start-up ventures. This trend fits within the broader disintermediation of corporate funding, spurred in large part by tighter capital regulations that have led to deleveraging at large banks in many countries. As a result, firms in this market segment have sought out a wide variety of alternative sources of funding, ranging from P2P lending to securitizations and other types of structured finance products. This shift brings with it new opportunities and challenges, as mid-caps and SMEs benefit from increased funding flexibility, but also must adapt to new demands associated with the development of alternative market infrastructures. This page provides a centralized source for Moody's research related to key SME and mid-cap credit trends.
Commodity prices have fallen to deep multi-year lows. The declines reflect a number of factors, including changes in supply, demand and exchange rates. This page provides a centralized source for Moody’s research on the credit impact of the sharp drop in commodity prices.
Since their introduction in 2007, green bonds have gained attention for their potential role in mobilizing capital toward environmental solutions. Capital market financing needs--in combination with growing investor demand, standardization of offerings, and the issuance of benchmark-sized deals that are effectively priced, both investment grade and potentially speculative or non-investment grade--are expected to lift green bond issuance in the years to come. This topic page aggregates Moody’s green bonds oriented research, covering trends and developments, relevant company specific research and green bond assessments as well as related environmental topics more broadly.
A modest revival in global growth and sustained low interest rates provide a reasonably stable backdrop for global credit in 2017, and we do not foresee a major spike in defaults. However, nine years after the global financial crisis, the world economy is still meandering along a path of disappointing growth. And there are a number of challenges that will translate into more uncertain economic and credit outcomes over the coming year. These challenges include concerns over the efficacy of monetary policy, a busy election calendar in Europe and the policy implications of Donald Trump’s election as US president.
For an overview of next year’s credit trends, please readMoody’s 2017 Global Credit Conditions.
For more detailed analysis, see the list below of all of Moody's 2017 Outlooks by region, country, and sector.
The far-reaching nature of various political shifts under way across the world, particularly in advanced economies, has raised the potential for significant changes in policy direction. On this page, you will find Moody's research about key credit issues related to upcoming elections and political developments globally
In addition to the credit drivers considered in our bank rating methodology, global systemically important banks with significant capital markets activities (the global investment banks, or “GIBs”) have several business-model characteristics that can pose unique or pronounced risks to their creditors. These include: (1) exposure to significant earnings volatility and tail risks, (2) the need for reliable and robust non-capital-markets earnings and capital cushions to protect against unexpected losses, (3) greater absolute and relative reliance on wholesale funding, and (4) a confidence-sensitive customer base. In addition, regulatory investigations and litigation relating to legacy issues present ongoing, material risks to some of these firms.
Bank Regulation and Capital
Pensions and Retirement Benefits: Today's Promises, Tomorrow's Credit Challenges
Concern over environmental change is leading to significant government policy initiatives globally and rising corporate innovation and investment. This heightened attention will lead to disruptive industry change, shifting investor capital allocation strategies and rising input costs related to increased pricing on carbon emissions and water usage. At the same time, severe environmental events, whether natural (earthquakes, hurricanes, droughts and floods) or man-made (oil spills and nuclear accidents), are of growing concern to many market participants who are concerned natural events are increasing in frequency and severity. This page highlights Moody's research on the credit implications of these developing environmental trends.
Governments and healthcare related industries worldwide are reinventing how they deliver, fund and regulate healthcare services amid the aging population in developed countries and expanding populations and economies of Asia and emerging markets. Increasing the efficiency of healthcare delivery is an important goal in addressing growing demand for affordable high quality services. Lowering healthcare costs has sparked innovation, structural reform and strategic maneuvering by governments and industries alike. This page provides a centralized source for Moody's research related to key credit issues concerning these matters.
Islamic finance is one of the most dynamic sectors of global finance. For this reason, Moody's remains strongly committed to supporting its growing importance. We provide market participants with a complete range of credit expertise and experience to meet the emerging needs in this field including ratings, research and training services.
The European Union and its core, the euro area, continues to face a challenging growth outlook and the risk of political fragmentation is rising. This page presents Moody's research related to key credit issues concerning growth and stability challenges within the EU
This page provides in-depth research on the effects of evolving rules and regulations on insurance companies.
Issuers in the fixed-income markets disclose material information about themselves and the securities they issue at the time of the initial offering and on a regular basis. Yet the rules pertaining to financial disclosure and ongoing reporting are complex and vary considerably by sector and geography, and at times this complexity can make financial analysis very difficult for investors. This page explores this topic in detail.
Investors have become increasingly concerned about event risk and the absence of meaningful covenant protections, which leaves them exposed to potential credit losses. Moody's covenant snapshots provide an informed opinion of covenant quality for both bonds and loans, helping you make better decisions and saving you time.
Moody's global macro-economic and financial risk analysis helps credit professionals to "put the pieces together" for developing a robust risk management/investment strategy by analyzing early trends, and by uncovering the linkages between the worlds of politics, economics and finance and their impact on credit. Through a combination of macro-economic, financial and policy perspectives, which aims to provide valuable credit angles, our analysts scrutinize key developments affecting global financial stability to help investors better anticipate future trends.
This page presents Moody’s research on debt maturities and refunding needs for fundamental issuers.