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Rating Update:

CORRECTION TO TEXT, JULY 29, 2011 RELEASE: MOODY'S AFFIRMS Baa1 RATING AND STABLE OUTLOOK ON CITY OF YOUNGSTOWN'S (OH) $9 MILLION OF OUTSTANDING MOODY'S-RATED GOLT DEBT

29 Jul 2011

Municipality
OH

Opinion

NEW YORK, Jul 29, 2011 -- Correction to text in fifth paragraph, fifth and sixth sentences, to update source of transfer from Business Development Fund. Revised release follows.

Moody's Investors Service has affirmed the Baa1 rating and stable outlook on the City of Youngstown's (OH) $9 million of outstanding Moody's-rated general obligation limited tax debt.

SUMMARY RATINGS RATIONALE

The city's general obligation limited tax bonds are secured by a full faith and credit taxing pledge, subject to the statutory 10-mill limitation, per Ohio state code. Affirmation of the Baa1 rating incorporates the city's challenged local economy continuing to grapple with sustained population loss and elevated unemployment rates; narrow financial operations with pending reductions in state aid; and an above average debt burden with some market access risk. The stable outlook reflects our expectation that the city's financial position will remain narrow, though stable, due to ongoing expenditure reductions and management's efforts to maintain balanced budgets.

STRENGTHS

- $650 million expansion at V&M steel-rolling pipe mill, with expected completion in late 2011 and estimated addition of 550 contract and full-time employees

-Institutional presence of Youngstown State University (revenue debt rated A1/stable outlook), regional public university, with 12,000 students and continued investment, including a new business school

CHALLENGES

- Continued economic challenges from ongoing population decline, including 18.3% decline from 2000 to 2010, and elevated unemployment rate

- Moderate reductions in state aid set for fiscal 2012

- Reliance on General Fund support for debt service payments on $11.9 million in bond anticipation notes issued for Covelli Centre

- Market access risk posed by need to annually renew Covelli Centre bond anticipation notes

DETAILED CREDIT DISCUSSION

LOCAL ECONOMY CONTINUES TO FACE SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGES; CITY FOCUSES ON RIGHTSIZING INITIATIVES

Though Youngstown has begun to experience new commercial development in recent years, we expect future growth to remain modest as economic challenges persist and the local economy continues to struggle to stabilize. For decades, the city has been grappling with the collapse of the local iron and steel industry, as well as a significant reliance on auto manufacturing and heavy manufacturing jobs. The city's moderately-sized $1.5 billion tax base has continued to experience annual declines, at an average annual rate of 3.3% over the last five years. The decline is primarily driven by the state of Ohio's (Aa1/negative outlook) phase-out of taxes on tangible personal property valuations from 2006 to 2009. Tangible personal property comprised approximately 13% of the city's tax base in 2006. More recently, the city has also experienced declines in real property value, with real estate values declining 3.5% in tax year 2011. Youngstown's population, at 66,982 in the 2010 census, is 40% of what it was at its1960 peak and has fallen decade over decade since then. In recent years, the city has focused on rightsizing its services and infrastructure to align with the current population through its Youngstown 2010 plan. This has involved demolishing vacant properties, with an estimated 500 homes demolished each year, and rezoning residential land into commercial, industrial, and green space. Despite ongoing efforts, the city continues to have elevated residential vacancy rates, with the 2010 census classifying 19% of the city's housing units as vacant. The city's income indices are significantly below state and national medians, though are somewhat skewed by the large student presence from Youngstown State University. Youngstown State University, which employs 1,200 and has 12,000 students, is located in downtown Youngstown and provides a measure of institutional stability to the city. The university has continued to expand with the addition of a new business school in 2010. Some additional stability comes from the city's role as the Mahoning County (GO rated A1) seat and a sizable health care sector, with St. Elizabeth's Hospital and Forum Health serving as the two largest employers.

The city's reliance on the auto and steel industries put pressure on economic trends during the economic downturn, with an unemployment rate of 13.9% in 2009. The unemployment rate has since fallen, though remains elevated, at 10.9% in May 2011 (compared to 8.5% for the state and 8.7% for the U.S.). The size of the city's labor force also declined during this time period, though not at the same rate as the decline in the unemployment rate. Part of the increase in unemployment was due to reductions at the General Motors' (corporate family rating Ba2/stable outlook) plant in nearby Lordstown. Operations at the plant were temporarily reduced to one shift in 2009. The plant started producing the Chevrolet Cruze in 2010, involving a $350 million investment, and is now back up to three shifts and over 3,000 employees. Recent commercial development includes the addition of VXI Global Solutions in the last few years, which operates an inbound call center employing approximately 1,100. Additionally, Vallourec & Mannesmann (V&M) is embarking on a $650 million expansion of its steel-rolling pipe mill, with expected completion in late 2011 or early 2012. The company is expected to add 350 full-time and 200 contract employees to its existing workforce of approximately 400 full-time and 300 contract employees. The V&M expansion is on a site owned by the city, which is expected to generate additional revenues for the city over the next four years from lease payments.

NARROW FINANCIAL OPERATIONS WITH LIMITED LIQUIDITY; BALANCED OPERATIONS EXPECTED FOR FISCAL 2011

We expect the city's financial position will remain narrow over the near term given future reductions in state-shared revenues, modest growth in other major revenue sources, and the availability of fewer options for expenditure reductions. Over the last several years, the city's financial operations have experienced pressures due to declining major revenue streams in the face of continued growth in expenditures. In fiscal 2009, income taxes declined a significant 12.7% compared to fiscal 2008. The city also experienced declines in state-shared revenues and faced an initial $3.3 million General Fund budget gap. The gap was closed primarily through a $2 million transfer from the Worker's Compensation Fund and a $1 million sale of a building. The city also enacted several expenditure reductions, including use of an early retirement program and 18 layoffs. Through these measures, the city was able to realize a $1 million operating surplus, ending the year with a General Fund balance of $4.7 million, or a satisfactory 12.2% of revenues. While the General Fund experienced a surplus, however, the fire and police levy funds, which are maintained outside the General Fund, both experienced operating deficits with the police fund's operating deficit at $1.3 million. The two funds are primarily supported by income taxes and transfers from the General Fund and both had deficit fund balances at the end of fiscal 2009 on an accrual basis, and the police fund had a deficit fund balance on a cash basis as well. Combined together, the General, Police, and Fire funds had an ending balance of $2.6 million, or a narrow 4.9% of combined revenues.

In fiscal 2010, the city transferred funds from the General Fund to the Police Fund to eliminate the deficit cash basis fund balance. This led to a decline in cash basis General Fund reserves, though when combined, the General, Police, and Fire funds increased approximately $250,000 on a cash basis to $976,000 in combined cash basis reserves, or a very limited 1.4% of combined receipts. The city has not needed to rely on additional transfers from the Worker's Compensation Fund as in 2009, and estimated ending fiscal 2010 balances in the Worker's Compensation Fund were slightly below fiscal 2009 ending balances, at about $925,000. For fiscal 2011, the city expects to end the year essentially flat with fiscal 2010, with an expected $1 million in reserves on a cash basis across the General, Police and Fire Funds. Positively, the city has seen income tax receipts increase 1.5% over fiscal 2010. The city also received a $744,000 transfer from its Business Development Fund. The transferred funds were generated by various business development activities. Going into fiscal 2012, the city expects to offset an estimated $1.1 million decline in state-shared revenues with savings from the retirements of 12 police officers at the end of 2011. The city is currently projecting a growth in income tax receipts of approximately 1%, and at this point, management expects to maintain balanced to surplus operations in fiscal 2012. The city's goal is to grow combined operating reserves to $2 million by the end of fiscal 2013, though no specific plans have been identified to reach this goal.

The city's General Fund reserves are illiquid as they consist of no available cash and investments. Cash flow needs are met during the year through interfund borrowing, in particular from the city's water and sewer utilities, which each had cash balances of approximately $1 million at the close of fiscal 2010. The city has access to available liquidity for the General Fund through letters of credit provided through economic development agreements with local companies. The city has historically encouraged economic development through the practice of using non-tax revenues to provide companies locating in the city with loans. Per the agreements with the companies receiving these loans, the companies secure a letter of credit (LOC) in a like amount to the loan that the city may draw on at any time. The city currently has one LOC outstanding for $2 million that it can draw on should cash flow pressures arise. The current outstanding LOC is with EastWest Bank and expires October 24, 2011. It was for a loan provided to VXI Global Solutions. While the city is not responsible for repaying any draws on the LOCs, we note that the reliance on outside parties for liquidity needs does pose some risk.

The city's 2.75% income tax accounted for 56% of 2009 General Fund revenues. The tax is split, with 1.5% of the rate levied for the General Fund, 0.55% for police, 0.41% for fire, and 0.29% for capital projects. The city does not levy any property tax for the General Fund. All of its inside millage property tax is dedicated for debt service. Starting in fiscal 2012, the city expects debt service payments will decline by approximately $600,000, including $230,000 of water and sewer utility-supported general obligation debt and $360,000 of debt supported by the general property tax levy. Positively, this will provide some additional flexibility for debt service as, per Ohio law, starting in 2011, the city is required to begin paying principal on its outstanding bond anticipation notes issued for the Covelli Centre. The events center is home to the Youngstown Phantoms hockey league and hosts musical and entertainment events as well. The center opened in 2005 and, after a change in management, realized its first profit in fiscal 2009. The city has $11.9 million in outstanding bond anticipation notes from construction of the center. The city had been rolling the notes while paying down interest payments primarily through transfers from the General Fund, with an $850,000 transfer in fiscal 2009. The city is required to make its first principal payment on the notes in September 2011 and debt service is expected to be about $930,000. The city currently expects to pay 2011 debt service through a combination of profits from the center, a 5.5% admissions tax on tickets, and General Fund support. Positively, in 2012, the reduction in debt service on general obligation debt will provide the city with additional revenue sources for repaying debt service on the notes. However, as the city still expects to rely on operations of the center to pay debt service on the notes, the center has generated modest revenues to date, and the city has limited alternate liquidity available for debt service, we note that the center poses some enterprise risk for the city and could put pressure on the city's long-term credit quality should a sustainable long-term solution for repaying the notes not emerge.

ABOVE AVERAGE DEBT BURDEN; NEAR TERM MARKET ACCESS RISK

We expect the city's above average debt burden, with overall debt at 5% of full value and direct debt at 2.8% of full value, to remain manageable, though note that the city faces near term market access risk due to the need for renewal of its outstanding bond anticipation notes. The $11.9 million Covelli Centre bond anticipation notes mature in September 2011, and the city also has $1.2 million in street improvement notes which mature in December 2011. Both series of notes were privately placed in 2010. Bond anticipation notes represent 30% of the city's outstanding debt, representing somewhat elevated market access risk. The city has entered into a consent decree with the Environmental Protection Agency to eliminate combined sewer overflows, which will lead to additional expected borrowing over the medium to long term. Favorably, the city has already implemented rate increases in the water and wastewater funds over the next five years to cover this future borrowing. All of the city's outstanding debt is fixed rate, and the city is not a party to any interest rate swap agreements.

Outlook

The stable outlook reflects our belief that the city will continue to maintain narrow, though stable, financial operations due to management's efforts to restore balanced operations to the major operating funds, and the expectation that management will continue to seek out budgetary adjustments to maintain balanced operations.

What Could Change the Rating Up -

- Successful economic development efforts resulting in stabilization of employment base and improvement of other economic indicators

- Improved financial operations leading to satisfactory liquidity levels and operating fund balances

What Could Change the Rating Down (or revise the outlook to negative) -

-Declining overall liquidity resulting in an inability to meet cash flow needs

-Material declines in operating fund balances leading to depleted or deficit fund positions

-Difficulty accessing the market or inability to develop a long-term solution to cover debt service payments on outstanding bond anticipation notes

KEY STATISTICS:

2010 Population: 66,982 (18.3% of 2000 census)

2011 Estimated Full Valuation: $1.5 billion (3.3% average annual decline since 2006)

2011 Estimated full value per capita: $23,075

2000 Per Capita Income as % of U.S.: 61.6%

2000 Median Family Income as % of U.S.: 61.3%

City of Youngstown unemployment rate (May 2011): 10.9%

FY2009 General Fund balance: $4.7 million (12.2% of revenues)

FY2009 Combined General, Police, and Fire Fund balances: $2.6 million (4.9% of combined revenues)

Debt Burden: 5.0% (Direct: 2.8%)

Amortization (10 years): 58.9%

Outstanding long-term general obligation debt: $18.6 million ($9 million rated by Moody's)

Outstanding short-term general obligation debt: $13.1 million

Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a rating is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.

Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.

Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history.

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Analysts

Emily Robare
Analyst
Public Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service

Genevieve Nolan
Backup Analyst
Public Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service

Henrietta Chang
Senior Credit Officer
Public Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service

Contacts

Journalists: (212) 553-0376
Research Clients: (212) 553-1653


Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
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CORRECTION TO TEXT, JULY 29, 2011 RELEASE: MOODY'S AFFIRMS Baa1 RATING AND STABLE OUTLOOK ON CITY OF YOUNGSTOWN'S (OH) $9 MILLION OF OUTSTANDING MOODY'S-RATED GOLT DEBT
No Related Data.
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