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Rating Action:

MOODY'S ASIGNA CALIFICACION A3.MX AL MUNICIPIO DE TONALá, JALISCO

30 Jan 2002
MOODY'S ASIGNA CALIFICACION A3.MX AL MUNICIPIO DE TONALá, JALISCO Moody's de México ha asignado calificaciones al emisor A3.mx (Escala Nacional de México) y Ba3 (Escala Global, moneda local) al Municipio de Tonalá. Las calificaciones incorporan el satisfactorio desempeño presupuestario del municipio y la mejora en su posición financiera luego de la reducción tanto de cuentas por pagar como de otros pasivos corrientes el año pasado. Las calificaciones también reflejan la débil base económica y de ingresos del municipio, así como los altos niveles de servicio de la deuda de los próximos dos años.


Durante los últimos cinco años, los niveles de endeudamiento de Tonalá han sido mínimos. Sin embargo, este año el municipio adquirirá un crédito por 40 millones de pesos. El préstamo ha de ser completamente pagado para octubre de 2003, lo que resultará en niveles relativamente altos de pagos de principal para los próximos dos años. Aún así, el servicio de la deuda se espera sea manejable dado el nivel de recursos federales que la ciudad recibe para el pago de obligaciones financieras y seguridad. No obstante, es de destacar la escasa flexibilidad presupuestaria del municipio en caso que los niveles de ingreso caigan por debajo de lo esperado. Tonalá no tiene deuda indirecta, aunque la transferencia del SIAPA a los cuatro municipios que forman el area metropolitana pudiese representar un importante pasivo contingente para el municipio.


El desempeño financiero de la ciudad en los últimos años ha sido satisfactorio, en tanto ésta ha sido capaz de mantener niveles de caja balanceados. No obstante, durante el periodo 1998-2000, el municipio acumuló un monto importante de pasivos corrientes. Estos fueron liquidados el año pasado y se espera que en los próximos años estos pasivos se mantengan en niveles mínimos. Para este año, el desempeño presupuestario es probable que resulte en un déficit financiero importante como resultado de los planes inversión en obra pública.


La base de ingresos propios del municipio es bastante estrecha y refleja la débil base económica de la ciudad, así como el valor relativamente bajo de sus predios. Los niveles de ingresos federales también son bastante bajos. Estos dos factores limitan el nivel de flexibilidad financiera del municipio.


El municipio de Tonalá se encuentra en el estado de Jalisco, siendo el menos desarrollado de los cuatro municipios que conforman el area metropolitana de Guadalajara. La base económica de Tonalá se centra en la producción y venta de artesanías. Las perspectivas económicas de este sector se han deteriorado en los últimos meses como resultado de la actual desaceleración económica tanto en los EEUU como en México y mayores niveles de competencia externa. Durante la última década, la población de la ciudad ha crecido a un ritmo superior a la media nacional como resultado de la llegada constante de emigrantes que buscan oportunidades de trabajo en los municipios de Guadalajara y Zapopan. Esto, a su vez, ha incrementado las necesidades de obra pública de la ciudad dado que la mayoría de estos emigrantes se han asentado en areas de la ciudad que carecen de infraestructura básica.


Las calificaciones al emisor reflejan la calidad crediticia de las entidades para cumplir con sus obligaciones financieras directas no garantizadas y, por lo tanto, no incorporan el respaldo crediticio derivado del uso de participaciones federales u otros recursos como colateral. Posteriormente, Moody's asignará calificaciones evaluando el soporte crediticio adicional que puedan proveer a las obligaciones financieras del municipio este tipo de garantías o estructuras de fideicomiso.


Las calificaciones de Moody's en escala nacional son opiniones sobre la calidad crediticia relativa de los emisores y emisiones dentro de México. La calificaciones de Moody's en su escala global para préstamos en moneda local permiten a los inversionistas comparar la calidad crediticia del municipio con la de emisores en otros países. Estas calificaciones incorporan el riesgo-país de México, incluyendo la volatilidad de la economía mexicana. A modo de comparación, la calificación de Moody's en escala global y moneda local para deuda emitida por el gobierno de México es Baa1.

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