MOODY’S COMUNICA: LE PROSPETTIVE STABILI PER LE BANCHE SVIZZERE RISPECCHIANO UNA BUONA PERFORMANCE DURANTE LA STASI CONGIUNTURALE E IL CALO DEI MERCATI AZIONARI, MA ANCHE IL PERSISTERE DI SITUAZIONI IMPEGNATIVE SUL FRONTE DEI COSTI
Le prospettive di rating stabili per il sistema bancario svizzero si fondano sulla performance relativamente buona dell’ultimo biennio, nonostante il clima teso per i mercati azionari e l‘economia in generale a livello nazionale ed internazionale, afferma Moody’s Investors Service in un nuovo rapporto dedicato alle prospettive per il sistema bancario svizzero (“Banking System Outlook”). Queste prospettive tengono anche conto del persistere di situazioni impegnative riconducibili sia all’aumento dei costi di produzione - legato all’entrata in vigore delle nuove norme contro il riciclaggio dei capitali, del secondo accordo di Basilea sui requisiti patrimoniali e dei principi contabili internazionali (IAS), sia alla persistente dipendenza delle banche private dai ricavi generati da operazioni finanziarie.
“Durante il periodo in esame le banche commerciali, grazie alla posizione di mercato ben consolidata di cui godono, sono complessivamente riuscite a mantenere la propria redditività. A questo risultato ha contribuito la forte domanda di mutui ipotecari in un contesto caratterizzato da tassi d’interessi in calo, nonostante l’impatto negativo determinato dalla diminuzione dei tassi d’interesse a breve termine sugli utili generati dai depositi”, afferma Alexandra Sleator, Senior Vice President di Moody’s e autrice del suddetto rapporto. Il livello delle rettifiche sui crediti é rimasto sotto controllo, per effetto della stabilità e solidità nella qualità dei crediti, ed inoltre i rischi di mercato e di liquidità sono contenuti per queste banche, soggiunge l’autrice del rapporto.
Moody’s sottolinea le azioni positive attuate dalle banche svizzere sul fronte dei costi, come i programmi per la ripartizione dei costi tra banche regionali e cantonali, nonché gli interventi rapidi e risoluti compiuti dalle banche private per ridurre gli organici. Infatti, facendo riferimento alle notevoli problematiche affrontate, in materia di costi e rischi, dal Crédit Suisse Group (i cui rating sono Aa3/Prime-1/B) - che è fra i principali gruppi bancari della Svizzera -, Moody’s prevede che per questo gruppo la ripresa, che è già ben avviata, acquisti slancio nel 2004, quando maggiori ricavi potranno confluire nei risultati economici finali, permettendo quindi al gruppo di generare utili paragonabili a quelli delle istituzioni finanziarie analoghe.
Moody’s rileva che UBS AG (Aa2/Prime-1/B+), uno dei principali gruppi bancari svizzeri, si è distinto rispetto ad altri gruppi bancari europei ed internazionali per la qualità e diversificazione dei ricavi, la gestione dei costi ed il potenziamento della flessibilità finanziaria, e per l’esiguità senza precedenti delle rettifiche sui crediti.
Moody’s, inoltre, avverte che le banche svizzere di minori dimensioni, malgrado gli interventi per il contenimento dei costi, risultano svantaggiate dal previsto aumento dei costi di produzione, dovuto all’applicazione da parte del settore bancario di nuovi sistemi finalizzati al rispetto della nuova normativa contro il riciclaggio dei capitali, del secondo accordo di Basilea sui requisiti patrimoniali e dei principi contabili internazionali (IAS). Secondo le previsioni di Moody’s, queste problematiche in materia di costi a lungo termine continueranno a dare impulso al processo di concentrazione tra le banche di dimensioni minori.
I rating assegnati da Moody’s in Svizzera ai depositi bancari in valuta estera e nazionale e alla solidità finanziaria delle banche si attestano, in media, sul livello di Aa3/Prime-1 e B-, rispettivamente, mentre il massimale nazionale di rating per i depositi bancari in valuta estera è pari ad Aaa.
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