MOODY¡¯S : EN SUISSE, LES ÉTABLISSEMENTS BANCAIRES NOTÉS PRÉSENTENT UN FONDS DE COMMERCE SOLIDE ET DES RISQUES FAIBLES, MAIS SONT NÉANMOINS CONFRONTÉS À UNE SATURATION DU MARCHÉ ET À L¡¯AUGMENTATION DE LEURS CHARGES D¡¯EXPLOITATION
Tous les établissements bancaires suisses notés ?les groupes bancaires internationaux aussi bien que les acteurs de taille plus modeste ?bénéficient de fonds de commerce solides qui assurent une bonne stabilit?de leur chiffre d’affaires ?et présentent un niveau de risque assez faible. Toutefois, la maturit?et la saturation du secteur bancaire domestique et l’augmentation de leurs charges d'exploitation pourraient, ?l’avenir, peser encore davantage sur la croissance des résultats du secteur, annonce Moody’s Investors Service dans une nouvelle analyse sectorielle sur le système bancaire suisse.
?La performance financière des banques suisses notées par Moody’s s’est, ces dernières années, améliorée, et a su résister au ralentissement économique actuel ? écrit Alexandra Sleator, Senior Vice Président et auteur du rapport. Ceci s’explique par le fait que les banques suisses bénéficient d’une position forte tant sur leurs produits-phare que sur leurs segments de clientèle.
Par ailleurs, en Suisse, le système bancaire, avec d’une part deux groupes bancaires internationaux, Crédit Suisse Group (CSG) et UBS, et d’autre part des établissements plus modestes tels que les banques régionales, coopératives, cantonales et privées, continue ?présenter des niveaux de risque relativement limités. La qualit?des actifs n’est, par conséquent, pas source de préoccupation aujourd’hui, mais une nouvelle dégradation de la situation économique en 2003 se traduirait vraisemblablement par des provisions pour risque plus élevées, bien que toujours relativement modérées.
Si, du fait de leurs activités respectives de gestion de patrimoine et de banque d’investissement, CSG et UBS sont exposés aux marchés de capitaux, Moody’s observe depuis fin 2000 un écart plus marqu?dans le niveau de leurs résultats. Ainsi, alors que ces deux groupes sont d’importants prêteurs ?un grand nombre de sociétés actuellement en difficult? CSG a ét?plus fortement éprouv?par les entreprises ayant perdu leur statut ?investissement grade ?(?fallen angels ?. ?CSG a en outre ét?affect?par l’ampleur des pertes boursières encourues par sa filiale d’assurance Winterthur ?ajoute Alexandra Sleator.
De surcroît, la saturation du march?bancaire suisse pourrait, sur le long terme, peser sur le chiffre d’affaires des activités domestiques de l’ensemble des banques. Dans ce contexte, la maîtrise des coûts et la réalisation de gains de productivit?devraient, selon Moody’s, s’avérer ?terme des composantes fondamentales des notations des banques suisses. D’après l’agence, la recherche d’économies d’échelle des banques de taille plus modeste devrait se traduire par de nouvelles initiatives de coopération et fusions au niveau domestique ainsi que d’éventuels rapprochements avec des acteurs internationaux de grande échelle.
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