MOODY’S: STABILER AUSBLICK FUER SCHWEIZER BANKEN AUSDRUCK DER GUTEN ERTRAGSENTWICKLUNG TROTZ KONJUNKTURABSCHWUNGS, BOERSENSCHWAECHE UND ANHALTENDEN KOSTENDRUCKS
Der stabile Ratingausblick für den Schweizer Bankenmarkt basiert auf der relativ guten Ertragsentwicklung in den vergangenen zwei Jahren trotz des schwierigen Konjunkturklimas und Börsenumfelds im In- und Ausland. Zu dieser Erkenntnis kommt die Ratingagentur Moody's Investors Service in ihrem jüngsten Branchenausblick für die Schweizer Banken. Der stabile Ausblick berücksichtigt auch den anhaltenden Kostendruck, welcher aus verschiedenen Faktoren resultiert: steigenden Kosten in Verbindung mit der Umsetzung neuer gesetzlicher Geldwäsche-Bestimmungen, finanziellen Belastungen aufgrund der neuen Baseler Eigenkapitalrichtlinie (Basel II) und der Einführung des neuen Rechnungslegungsstandards IAS. Zudem sind die Privatbanken nach wie vor von transaktionsbasierten Erträgen abhängig.
Alexandra Sleator, Senior Vice President bei Moody's und Autorin des Berichts meint: „Aufgrund ihrer relativ starken Marktposition konnten die Geschäftsbanken während des gesamten Untersuchungszeitraumes ihr Ertragsniveau stabil halten. Zu Hilfe kam ihnen dabei eine durch die sinkenden Kreditzinsen verursachte, gleichmäßig stabile Nachfrage nach Hypothekarkrediten, obwohl sich gleichzeitig der Rückgang der kurzfristigen Zinsen auf die Erträge aus dem Depositengeschäft belastend auswirkte.“ Die Aufwendungen im Kreditgeschäft hielten sich dank der relativ stabilen und hohen Qualität der Aktiva in Grenzen, und es bestehen auch nur geringe Markt- und Liquiditätsrisiken für die Schweizer Banken, fügt Sleator hinzu.
Moody's unterstreicht die positiven Maßnahmen zur Kostenreduzierung, die von den Banken getroffen wurden, wie zum Beispiel Initiativen zur Kostenaufteilung zwischen den Regional- und Kantonalbanken sowie schnelle und entschlossene Personaleinsparungsmaßnahmen auf Seiten der Privatbanken. Angesichts der Tatsache, dass sich einer der führenden Schweizer Bankkonzerne, die Credit Suisse Group (von Moody’s mit Aa3/Prime-1/B bewertet), intensiv mit Fragen der Kosten- und Risikosteuerung auseinandersetzt, rechnet Moody's damit, dass sich der bereits seit einiger Zeit anhaltende Aufwärtstrend im Jahr 2004 mit steigenden Erträgen auf sämtlichen Konzernebenen zusätzlich verstärken wird. Dies dürfte es dem Konzern ermöglichen, ein Ertragsniveau vergleichbar demjenigen seiner Mitbewerber zu erreichen.
Eine weitere führende Schweizer Bank, die UBS AG (von Moody’s mit Aa2/Prime-1/B+ bewertet), hob sich gegenüber anderen europäischen und internationalen Bankengruppen in Bezug auf Ertragsqualität, Diversifikationsgrad, Kostenmanagement und gesteigerte finanzielle Flexibilität ab. Zusätzlich bewegten sich die Aufwendungen im Kreditgeschäft auf einem Rekordtief, wie Moody's weiter feststellt.
Moody's gibt allerdings zu bedenken, dass kleinere Schweizer Banken ungeachtet der getroffenen Maßnahmen zur Kostensenkung in Erwartung steigender Aufwendungen im Rahmen der Einführung neuer Verfahren zur Einhaltung der gesetzlichen Geldwäsche-Bestimmungen sowie im Rahmen von Basel II und der Bilanzerstellung nach IAS im Nachteil sein dürften.
Im Durchschnitt werden die Bankdepositen und Fremdwährungsverbindlichkeiten der Schweizer Banken mit Aa3/Prime-1 bewertet. Die Finanzkraftratings liegen im Durchschnitt bei B-, die Länderobergrenze für die Fremdwährungsverbindlichkeiten wurde mit Aaa festgesetzt.
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