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Rating Action:

MOODY’S: STABILER AUSBLICK FUER SCHWEIZER BANKEN AUSDRUCK DER GUTEN ERTRAGSENTWICKLUNG TROTZ KONJUNKTURABSCHWUNGS, BOERSENSCHWAECHE UND ANHALTENDEN KOSTENDRUCKS

13 Jan 2004
MOODY’S: STABILER AUSBLICK FUER SCHWEIZER BANKEN AUSDRUCK DER GUTEN ERTRAGSENTWICKLUNG TROTZ KONJUNKTURABSCHWUNGS, BOERSENSCHWAECHE UND ANHALTENDEN KOSTENDRUCKS Der stabile Ratingausblick für den Schweizer Bankenmarkt basiert auf der relativ guten Ertragsentwicklung in den vergangenen zwei Jahren trotz des schwierigen Konjunkturklimas und Börsenumfelds im In- und Ausland. Zu dieser Erkenntnis kommt die Ratingagentur Moody's Investors Service in ihrem jüngsten Branchenausblick für die Schweizer Banken. Der stabile Ausblick berücksichtigt auch den anhaltenden Kostendruck, welcher aus verschiedenen Faktoren resultiert: steigenden Kosten in Verbindung mit der Umsetzung neuer gesetzlicher Geldwäsche-Bestimmungen, finanziellen Belastungen aufgrund der neuen Baseler Eigenkapitalrichtlinie (Basel II) und der Einführung des neuen Rechnungslegungsstandards IAS. Zudem sind die Privatbanken nach wie vor von transaktionsbasierten Erträgen abhängig.



Alexandra Sleator, Senior Vice President bei Moody's und Autorin des Berichts meint: „Aufgrund ihrer relativ starken Marktposition konnten die Geschäftsbanken während des gesamten Untersuchungszeitraumes ihr Ertragsniveau stabil halten. Zu Hilfe kam ihnen dabei eine durch die sinkenden Kreditzinsen verursachte, gleichmäßig stabile Nachfrage nach Hypothekarkrediten, obwohl sich gleichzeitig der Rückgang der kurzfristigen Zinsen auf die Erträge aus dem Depositengeschäft belastend auswirkte.“ Die Aufwendungen im Kreditgeschäft hielten sich dank der relativ stabilen und hohen Qualität der Aktiva in Grenzen, und es bestehen auch nur geringe Markt- und Liquiditätsrisiken für die Schweizer Banken, fügt Sleator hinzu.



Moody's unterstreicht die positiven Maßnahmen zur Kostenreduzierung, die von den Banken getroffen wurden, wie zum Beispiel Initiativen zur Kostenaufteilung zwischen den Regional- und Kantonalbanken sowie schnelle und entschlossene Personaleinsparungsmaßnahmen auf Seiten der Privatbanken. Angesichts der Tatsache, dass sich einer der führenden Schweizer Bankkonzerne, die Credit Suisse Group (von Moody’s mit Aa3/Prime-1/B bewertet), intensiv mit Fragen der Kosten- und Risikosteuerung auseinandersetzt, rechnet Moody's damit, dass sich der bereits seit einiger Zeit anhaltende Aufwärtstrend im Jahr 2004 mit steigenden Erträgen auf sämtlichen Konzernebenen zusätzlich verstärken wird. Dies dürfte es dem Konzern ermöglichen, ein Ertragsniveau vergleichbar demjenigen seiner Mitbewerber zu erreichen.



Eine weitere führende Schweizer Bank, die UBS AG (von Moody’s mit Aa2/Prime-1/B+ bewertet), hob sich gegenüber anderen europäischen und internationalen Bankengruppen in Bezug auf Ertragsqualität, Diversifikationsgrad, Kostenmanagement und gesteigerte finanzielle Flexibilität ab. Zusätzlich bewegten sich die Aufwendungen im Kreditgeschäft auf einem Rekordtief, wie Moody's weiter feststellt.



Moody's gibt allerdings zu bedenken, dass kleinere Schweizer Banken ungeachtet der getroffenen Maßnahmen zur Kostensenkung in Erwartung steigender Aufwendungen im Rahmen der Einführung neuer Verfahren zur Einhaltung der gesetzlichen Geldwäsche-Bestimmungen sowie im Rahmen von Basel II und der Bilanzerstellung nach IAS im Nachteil sein dürften.



Im Durchschnitt werden die Bankdepositen und Fremdwährungsverbindlichkeiten der Schweizer Banken mit Aa3/Prime-1 bewertet. Die Finanzkraftratings liegen im Durchschnitt bei B-, die Länderobergrenze für die Fremdwährungsverbindlichkeiten wurde mit Aaa festgesetzt.





* * * * * *

HINWEIS FÜR JOURNALISTEN: Falls Sie an einem Exemplar dieser neuesten Studie interessiert sind, wenden Sie sich bitte an Detlef Scholz in Frankfurt, Tel. +49 69 70730-700, unsere Pressestelle in London, Tel. +44 20 7772-5454, unsere Pressestelle in Paris, Tel. +33 1 5343-9378, unsere Pressestelle in New York, Tel. +1 212 553-0376, Juan Pablo Soriano in Madrid, Tel. +34 91 310-1454, Bénédicte Pfister in Mailand, Tel. +39 02 58215-585, Adel Satel in Limassol, Tel. +357 25 586-586, Hector Lim in Sydney, Tel. +612 9270-8190, unsere Pressestelle in Tokio, Tel. +813 5408-4110, Hilary Parkes in Toronto, Tel. +1 416 214-1635, Lorraine Yee in Hongkong, Tel. +852 2916-1112, Luiz Tess in São Paulo, Tel. +55 11 3443-7444, Benito Solis in Mexiko-Stadt, Tel. +525 261-8784, Reynold Leegerstee in Johannesburg, Tel. +27 11 217-5471, oder besuchen Sie uns im Internet unter www.moodys.com.






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CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODY'S CREDIT RATINGS AFFILIATES ARE THEIR CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES, AND MATERIALS, PRODUCTS, SERVICES AND INFORMATION PUBLISHED BY MOODY’S (COLLECTIVELY, “PUBLICATIONS”) MAY INCLUDE SUCH CURRENT OPINIONS. MOODY’S DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT. SEE APPLICABLE MOODY’S RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO: LIQUIDITY RISK, MARKET VALUE RISK, OR PRICE VOLATILITY. CREDIT RATINGS, NON-CREDIT ASSESSMENTS (“ASSESSMENTS”), AND OTHER OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT. MOODY’S PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODY’S ANALYTICS, INC. AND/OR ITS AFFILIATES. MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE, SELL, OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES. MOODY’S CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLICATIONS DO NOT COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR. MOODY’S ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS AND OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLISHES ITS PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL, WITH DUE CARE, MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE, HOLDING, OR SALE.

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