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Research Announcement:

Moody's -- A prolonged slowdown in China will reverberate through Asia-Pacific and beyond

02 November 2022


Singapore, November 02, 2022 --

  • A sustained slowdown in China would hit countries with large direct trade exposure to the country
  • It will also likely depress confidence and investment in Asia-Pacific

Although not part of the base case, a prolonged slowdown in China would have large impacts on Northeast Asian economies that are exposed to Chinese demand for a range of goods, according to Moody's Investors Service in a new report. In addition, commodity-producing countries such as Australia (Aaa stable), Mongolia (B3 stable) and to some extent Indonesia (Baa2 stable) are more vulnerable.

"Under our base case, we expect China to experience a modest growth recovery in 2023, after growth falling well below the official target this year. However, risks are rising that the slowdown in China's growth may be structural rather than cyclical. In this situation, there would be spillovers to the rest of the region and to other economies through a variety of channels," says Deborah Tan, a Moody's Assistant Vice President and Analyst.

In addition, a sustained slowdown in China would weigh on global growth, dragging down overall demand for Chinese goods, and magnifying individual countries' exposures through supply-chain linkages. Although companies might speed up their "China+1" strategies by diversifying operations away from China amid slower growth and ongoing regulatory uncertainty, the benefit would not offset the potential spillover effects of a prolonged slowdown.

What's more, slower growth in China would depress confidence and investment in the region, particularly frontier markets. This scenario would also have knock-on effects on financial intermediation activities, such as in Hong Kong SAR, China (Aa3 stable). China might also pull back further on strategic investments in the Belt and Road Initiative, affecting mostly lower-income Asian economies and exacerbating their social risks.

However, demand-side pressure on inflation would ease with a sustained China slowdown. Central banks might tighten monetary policy less than currently envisaged to offset the effects of slower global demand. Lower expected inflation, alongside a more moderate nominal interest rate profile, would mitigate the effects on the debt-servicing ability of sovereigns and companies in a lower growth environment.

NOTE TO JOURNALISTS ONLY: For more information, please call one of our global press information hotlines: New York +1-212-553-0376, London +44-20-7772-5456, Tokyo +813-5408-4110, Hong Kong +852-3758-1350, Sydney +61-2-9270-8141, Mexico City 001-888-779-5833, São Paulo 0800-891-2518, or Buenos Aires 0800-666-3506. You can also email us at [email protected] or visit our web site at www.moodys.com.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the issuer/deal page on https://ratings.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

Deborah Tan
AVP-Analyst/CSR
Credit Strategy & Standards
Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.
JOURNALISTS : 852 3758 1350
Client Service : 852 3551 3077

Michael Taylor
MD-Credit Strategy
Credit Strategy & Standards
Moody's Investors Service Pty Limited
JOURNALISTS : 852 3758 1350
Client Service : 852 3551 3077

Releasing Office :
Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.
71 Robinson Road #05-01/02
Singapore, 068895
Singapore
JOURNALISTS : 852 3758 1350
Client Service : 852 3551 3077

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